There’s nothing like the Kentucky Derby position draw.
Because it has become a 20 horse field it is one of the most unique factors
that can make you think twice about a horse you would otherwise be ready to bet.
So what are the stats? Without further ado your: Kentucky Derby Gate Position Chart
*Gate positions since stats were used in 1930
*Due to the Hoppertunity scratch (Gate Position 11) and Pablo Del Monte not entering, all horses 1-10 will be bumped out one spot and gate position 1 will remain open.
for some thoughts that jump out at me, and how it compares to this year’s field. First, don't let the post positions sway you too far. Winners come from everywhere so don't be too shy to ignore the stats.
never been done
would have thought back in 2008 that No. 17 would have its day before No. 20
but after Big Brown did it, PP 17 stands alone. I wouldn’t bet on Commanding Curve becoming the first in 2014.
It’s Been a While
14 is in a drought that dates all the way back to Carry Back in 1961. By all
accounts, Medal Count may be a formidable contender that returns gate number 14
to the winners circle. No. 12, Canonero II in ’71, and No. 9, Riva Ridge in ’72,
are also looking to get back in the action.
16 has hit twice in the last 3 years. On top of that the winner has broke from
this position 5 times since 1995. Orb (2013), Animal Kingdom (2011), Monarchos
(2001), Charismatic (1999), Thunder Gulch (1995). Will Johhny V lead another
Kentucky Derby starter to victory from this spot in 2014? Intense Holiday may
be worth betting.
on the Outside
dating back to Thunder Gulch in 1995, a total of 11 winners have emerged from at or outside
of No. 10. That says a lot about the dynamics of a 20 horse field and how
getting comfortable and in position to strike is anywhere but inside.
you look at the one hole you can’t just look back and think that Ferdinand in 1986 was relatively recent.
Yes, it was a large field of 16 horses but what’s even more important is that
you have to go all the way back to 1963, Chateaugay, to find the next horse that won from No. 1. Since Affirmed in 1978, position No. 2, only 4 winners have started from
No. 1 thru 4. (Ferdinand, Real Quiet - No. 3, Alysheba - No. 3, Super Saver - No. 4). From the first four positions in 2014 I'd say Danza has the best shot.
Calvin Wins From Inside No. 9
three Kentucky Derby victories were all from more traditional post positions; Super
Saver No. 4, Street Sense No. 7 and Mine That Bird No. 8. This year is anything
like those as Ride On Curlin is breaking from the secondary gate, No. 19.
It was very popular in the 80's (Sunday Silence, Spend a Buck, Sunny's Halo and Genuine Risk). So, it is now the best post position of all time with 9 wins. But, I don't see Wildcat Red extending that lead this year.
On Monday Wicked Strong officially turned 3. On Thursday Medal Count did too. And it's Tapiture's birthday today. Does it matter when you turn three? Not really, but there are stats for that.
*Dating Back to 1976
2014 Kentucky Derby Starters Foal Date
Finally, just some more stats. Does it matter where you are bred? Again, not really, it's just that Kentucky dominates the census so most likely it's going to be the Blue Grass state.
*Dating Back to 1976
Winners not bred in KY: Smarty Jones, PA; Funny Cide NY; Silver Charm FL; Sea Hero, VA; Lil E. Tee, PA; Unbridled, FL; Sunny's Halo, ON; Pleasant Colony, VA; Affirmed FL.
2014 Kentucky Derby Starters not bred in KY: California Chrome, CA; Vicar's in Trouble, VA; Wildcat Red, FL; Samraat, NY; Dance With Fate, FL; We Miss Artie, ON.
Now, let me finish by telling you that I am not a mathematician, not even close. So, I don't overanalyze these trends, stats or charts. My firm belief is that anyone can win from anywhere at anytime but it also doesn't mean that this information isn't worth considering. Enjoy.