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HRN Original Blog:
The Kentucky Derby Post

Will a Full Field Enter the Breeders' Cup Juvenile?

 

With the Breeders’ Cup pre-entry deadline set for Monday October 22, the fields are starting to shape up in all of the respective divisions. The Breeders' Cup Juvenile field size however is developing rather slowly. In the last ten Breeders’ Cup’s 2005 was the only Juvenile that had less than 10 horses in the field. As of right now 2012 is starting to look like the next.

 
 
Remember, the official entry deadline is on October 29, just 5 days before Breeders’ Cup Saturday. Because the field is a little thin right now does not rule out the possibility that a stronger or should I say larger field will still come together. Racing juveniles can be a very delicate decision and cause many connections to delay but we don’t have time to wait. Instead, let’s speculate which juveniles we will be seeing and the ones that are going to pass.
 
 
The most obvious probable is Shanghai Bobby, the leading candidate right now for 2-yr-old colt of the year. It has already been announced that he will be taking his undefeated record to Santa Anita and from the horses we are going to cover, Shanghai Bobby is hands down the head of the class on paper.
 
 
He gets that honor because he is the only potential Juvenile starter that holds wins in more than one graded stakes. Secondly, his form is very well developed for a horse at his age. So, barring any setbacks Shanghai Bobby should be considered a lock for racing in the Juvenile.
 
 
In case you haven’t been paying attention should it be any news that Bob Baffert is likely going to enter his leading contender. Workouts talk to some handicappers more than others so if you’re persuaded by a horse that shows their holding their form then this should get your attention. Power Broker 10/14, SA, 5F: 59.20. The sharp workout ranked 2nd out of 88 on the day and is an obvious sign that he is still on track for entering the Juvenile.
 
 
Nothing is official but it’s pretty safe to assume that the two horses that finished behind Power Broker in 2nd and 3rd in the G1 FrontRunner will also be back at Santa Anita for the Juvenile. Know More lost a few supporters after he failed to win in either of his two races that followed his opening act, a win in the G2 Best Pal Stakes, but finishing no worse than 2nd in three lifetime graded stakes races has kept a lot of fans at bay. So, expect this Doug O’Neill colt owned by Paul Reddam to have a good amount of supporters in their corner on Breeders’ Cup weekend. As for Capo Bastone he’s still searching for his first graded stakes win but it looks very likely that he will attempt to make the Juvenile his inaugural splash.
 
 
Back east there are three other horses that are on the early probable list. First is Fortify, a solid graded stakes tested horse that has the potential to score his first graded win at any moment. Shanghai Bobby has been much the best when the two went head to head in the G2 Hopeful and G1 Champagne but every once in awhile the horse that is doing all the chasing finally catches up and completes the pursuit. Nothing has been set by Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin or Godolphin Racing but all signs point to Fortify entering the Juvenile.
 
 
In more recent news, two Juveniles that are not yet as well known have been confirmed. Coming off of a non-graded stakes win at Calder last weekend, Speak Logistics has been given the green light to go for more. Trained by Edward Plesa, the Florida bred colt by High Cotton and Miss Sabrina is riding high off of back to back wins at a distance of at least 1 Mile. His connections are confident that he is not a sprinter so I will have to give him a good look as the Juvenile field begins to finalize.
 
 
Trainer Mark Casse has also confirmed that his colt Dynamic Sky will be making the move west after a 2nd place finish in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. This Ontario bred colt, son of Sky Mesa has never raced on dirt but it’s good to see that it didn’t stop his connections from moving forward.
 
 
Now let’s switch to the most curious horses. Or should we just declare them unlikely or possible. By this time I would’ve expected to hear that Joha, winner of the Breeders’ Futurity, had been confirmed for the Juvenile but that’s not the case. Instead it’s becoming more apparent that the Juvenile Turf is going to be the race where you’ll find him. My guess is that it’s been decided that the grass is the better choice and he will not be running in the 2012 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
 
 
By now it shouldn’t be a surprise that Bern Identity is probably opting instead for the Juvenile Sprint. The rumors on this were out even before the Champagne so seeing him listed as probable for the Sprint division as opposed to the Juvenile was most certainly expected.
 
Likely to join Berne Identity in passing on the Juvenile are two horses that I wasn’t too sure about. Overanalyze, trained by Pletcher and owned by Mike Repole will not enter the Juvenile. In fact, Repole announced today that none of his horses will be racing at this year's Breeders Cup. Also, don't expect Darwin to be entering the Juvenile either. Instead, this horse has a better chance of joining Bern Identify in the BC Sprint. 
 
 
So what does this leave us with? Another Baffert horse that’s too early to predict is Title Contender. Winner in one of his first two Maiden races, I can see Bob Baffert putting him in and leaving him out. The future looks pretty bright for this young colt so I can understand why he would elect to pass but then again I also understand that it’s Baffert. He if wants roll the dice, he will.
 
 
Finally, there’s no word yet on Goldencents, 2nd in the Champagne, or Archwarrior, 4th in the Champagne. If I had to guess we won’t see either of these two. In fact, I’m guessing that we won’t see enough confirmations in the coming days to get the field to at least ten horses. As an alternative, it will be a very competitive field of either 8 or 9 but again that can change before we get to October 29.
 
Since that is when we will know for sure who will officially be entered its only speculation right now. Either way the field will be solid and should produce more than a handful of Kentucky Derby hopefuls. However, the more the merrier as a full field of Juveniles for me is exciting, unpredictable and absolutely the most fun. So, lets hope we start seeing more horses that will eventually find their spot in the starting gate. 

 

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Older Comments about Will a Full Field Enter the Breeders' Cup Juvenile?...

Imagine that we had a drug that blocked the effects of cystic fibrosis. That would be great, BUT, if those people who had it were allowed to wildly disribute the genes that CAUSE the disease, would we, in the long term, not be doing MORE harm than good?
I'd like to see former Salix users win and place in the five BCJ races. That could have more impact towards showing that horses can run successfully without the drug than if already Salix-free horses win those races.
Interesting story about the brand name via my sister at a hosptial in Laguna beach ....LASTS SIX HOURS was the phrase that became the brand name.
What you really need to do is start phasing out LASIx. The BC juvenile races are the shots across the bow. Now you need to follow up with the major two yr old races being without LASIx. From there you need to move onto to zkD qualifying races. You will not stop its use immediately, but if you continue phasing it out, it will be gone faster than people think. But you must continue and not make the breeders cup a one shot deal.
I think that the reason they went with a LASIx ban at the Breeders Cup on two yr olds was the pressure from Congress which has gotten little or no press at racing sites. Congressional hearings have looked into the drug issue and their basic point is that horse racing cannot police themselves so the Feds would have to do it. I think this ban and pledge not to use LASIx was an attempt to show that racing can police itself. I do think the 21 horses that broke down at Aqueduct and the takeover of the NyRA by Cuomo and the article by Joe Drape in the NY Times fed into this as well as the allegations around O'neilll and IHA.
"According to one DRF article 95% of all horses run on Lasix. It seems to me that MORE research should have been done before making this decision." This B.S. is what we hear from the completely zany members of Congress who know NOTHING about science in hopes that if enough study is done it will, in the long run, obfuscate the facts. Spoken like the typical IGNORANT player out there who does not know CRAP about the pharmacology of this medication, its typical usage in humans (Congestive Heart Failure, hypertension and accumulation of pitting edema in venous stasis, hepatic cirrhosis, renal impairment, nephrotic syndrome, in adjunct therapy for cerebral/pulmonary edema where rapid diuresis is required [IV injection], and in the management of severe hypercalcemia in combination with adequate re-hydration). ANY OTHER medication, normally cleared by the kidney will be cleared from the system FASTER as a result of diuresis. Any remnant of a drug you want OUT? This is the way to do it. Did you catch that one about HYPERCALCEMIA? Why would someone bitch about spindly bones and then use a drug that not only messes up the NORMAL electrolytes, but leaches calcium out of the skeleton?...How much MORE important is that during the immature years when calcium is being laid down in the epiphyseal ends of bones? Add to the fact that only ONE venue ON EARTH uses this crap while the rest of world runs healthy horses without it. Reminds me of the mom watching little Johnny march in a parade in his band. He is out of step to everyone and the mom shouts "Look at all those others out of step and John is the only one marching correctly!" We are moving into a new dark ages, galloping in fact.
amazing how hogwash like this gets to be gospel "First-time Lasix should improve this one's chances."
Excellent points, tv and Buckpasser. I don't hate the individuals who make the comments, but I hate reading, "First-time Lasix should improve this one's chances." or similar posts of handicappers. Something that is scary to me is the dangerous mastery of language by those who are proponents of Salix, meaning that they don't just tolerate its use; they are for using it, sometimes saying they think it is cruel to run horses without it. Dangerous words, imo, and sometimes they are very powerful people.
You want to phase out or ban LASIx use, tie the Derby qualifying races under the new point system to the ban. If just the BC juvenile races have a ban, then owners will skirt the races and go somewhere else. If you ban LASIx use for Derby qualifying races, then there will be no place to hide so to speak, because the TC races are where the breeding dollars are. Stop the drug use and you will see less breakdowns on the track.
One word to them: TOUGH
To me this attempted ban on LASIx for two yr olds has fallen flat on its face. Only 45 owners signed a pledge not to run on LASIx and the real point of the ban is to realize who did not sign. The majority of non signatories own the top two yr olds, like Stonestreet et al.
To me if you really want to cut down or eliminate LASIx use, you need to coordinate with the point system going into the Derby and TC races. Unless you tackle the monetary breeding advantages to winning these races, you will never solve the problems of the racing industry of too much drug use and early retirements and chronic breakdowns. To me all these problems go hand in hand. Solve the drug issue and you will over time solve the breakdown and early retirement issues.
Our horses, byt the very nature of their definiton as throughbreds, are of the same genearl genetic background as those running ANY WHERR in the world. WHy do you think it is that ONE vnue, North America, in all the world relies on race day DRUGS (which taints the sprot to the casual fan heavily)....No where else on the planet..Just who is out of step here?
Furosemide is crap, has always been crap as it is given out of HABIT, not reuqriement. I have seen countless horses put on that unnecessary medication for no other reason than some erroneous idead that "Well he is using it why can't I? there MUST be some advanatage and I want it too." The FIRST thing your learn in pharmacology is that NO drug, NOT ONE, has a single effect. They have the effect they are prescirbed to accomplish (more or less based upon the individual does/resposne curve) and then all the other effects simply lumped together as Side effects. This drug is used for hypertension, and the fluid accumulation in extremities or in the lungs in congestive heart failure. THAT IS WHAT IT IS USED FOR, proven to do etc, not they flimsy evidence that some horsemen cling to. It wastes electrolytes, sometimes dramatically to the point of startng heart arrhytmias, is leaches Calcium from bones, a myriad of effects that just DO NOT warrent the widespread use. I am amazed to see how often an ENTIRE race card is on the crap, as opposed to the standard bred which is only about 30-35% and even then for shorter periods of time. FOR its purpose in the racing horse, it is a very bad pharmacological choice and should be banned or cut back substantially.
To me the Breeders Cup Juvenile is in the Perfect Storm. I am sure the LASIx ban is an issue. Neither Repole nor most of the top owners with good two yr olds signed the pledge against LASIx. The venue again at Santa Anita is a problem as it goes against the founding spirit of the Breeders Cup races as alternating among various tracks. Finally the new points system does Change the emphasis on this race as Ambitious D points out. I do think if you had a win and you are in the Derby on this race, the concerns about LASIx and the race being at Santa Anita again would disappear.
NO, let the bleeders be exposed so they can BREED away from it like MOST of the rest of the WORLD does
Bern Identity will skip the BC races for this year. As of now he will run in the 1 million dollar jackpot. I wished he would run here, but very unlikely for him considering he just raced today.
It seems that, horses aren't going to run less hard or slow down in a race to prevent bleeding. I think with where the sport is at now, it may be necessary to keep lasix legal in order to prevent these issues.
Hey guys, I don't want to start a new thread so i am going to put this question on this one. It seems to me that the need for Lasix is valid due to the possible effects on the horse, should they run without it. Yes, not running with lasix at all would be best for everyone but if the horses are having EIHP and bleeding problems because of not running with it...is it worth it?
How much of an effect do you think the new Kentucky Derby points system has on the field size? The million dollar plus winnings are nearly irrelevant to punching the entry ticket to Churchill this year, which may hold back some trainers from trying to throw a hail mary.

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About Me

Meet Bryan Brinkmeyer – Chicago, IL

 

Growing up I spent a lot of days in the Bluegrass State. Although I was born and raised north of the mighty Ohio River in Southwest Indiana, I was still next door to thoroughbred racing; Ellis Park, Henderson, KY 

 

Likewise, the first Saturday in May was always a celebrated family event. As my two brothers and I got older the battle for picking the next winner began to heat up. In 2000, I made my inaugural Kentucky Derby appearance. Since then I’ve made it an annaual tradition because there’s no other city or weekend in the racing world like Louisville, KY on Derby Day. 

 

Although the story of a Kentucky Derby winner is legendary, following a champions trail is what The Kentucky Derby Post is all about. The coverage begins when the 2-yr-old preps commence but it does not quit racing until all results are official, the field is set, the picks are made and the roses are worn. But that’s not all because the road doesn’t stop on the First Saturday in May. The elusive quest for the next Triple Crown has reached 35 years so I invite my readers to remain in the saddle through all three legs as we await the next Champion of Champions. Cheers.

 

 

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