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HRN Original Blog:
The Kentucky Derby Post

BC Juvenile: The Picks Are In

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
The World Championships are here. It’s the place where some of the finest thoroughbreds from all over the world come to represent their respective divisions and race to see who’s best. As for the racing fans it’s a weekend filled with a lot decisions. At the end of the day you’re either bragging or ripping up more tickets than you wanted to. But a bad day at the track is still better than most and a bad day at Santa Anita this weekend could be better than any.
 
We wish everyone from Trainers, Jockey’s, Owners and their connections and of course the Fans a great weekend and the best of luck. For anyone that needs one last hard look at this weekend’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, don’t worry I got your back. The field is set so let’s break it down.
 
1. Title Contender        M. Garcia   B. Baffert   6-1
 
At this point his resume isn’t too flashy because Bob Baffert has been taking his time with this colt. After a 3rd place finish in his MSW debut at Del Mar on July 28, Baffert kept him out of racing a full two months before he returned at Santa Anita. His first win was over a distance of 1 Mile so he got much closer to 1 1/16 but the extra distance against top rated talent is still the big question. What’s not a question is how he’s been working recently at Santa Anita.
 
10/28/2012         5F     59.00         Rank: 1/50
10/22/2012         6F     1:12.80      Rank: 3/13
10/15/2012         5F     59.40         Rank: 4/54
 
Pretty solid. I’ve learned the hard way to never underestimate the quieter Bob Baffert entry. I can’t say that I’m leaning towards Title Contender but I can say that Baffert no longer seems to surprise me.
 
2. Speak Logistics        A. Serpa    E. Plesa Jr  8-1
 
The Florida Bred moves into Southern California. Similar to Title Contender, Speak Logistics has also never raced against a field of this class. After coming up short in his first Maiden race at Monmouth Park he returned one month later to get that crossed off his list. From there it was down to Calder and the Florida Stallion In Reality Stakes. Raced over 1 1/16 it was a gutsy decision that paid off. Breaking from the 2 hole he got away clean, went right to the front and never looked back. The fractions were somewhat pedestrian so I don’t know if I expect him to break swiftly from the 2 hole once again. He has a tall order in front of him this weekend and if he pulls it out I will be surprised.  
 
3. He’s Had Enough     M. Gutierrez       D. O’Neil    20-1
 
The Kentucky Derby winning team is back on the main stage. Although they have shown what they're capable of, the chances of them joining He’s Had Enough in the winner’s circle at the Breeders' Cup is a much bigger task. A pretty interesting factor here is that even though he put up a bullet work on the Santa Anita dirt last Thursday (6F 1:12.40) it's surprising that this will be his first ever race on dirt. My overall analysis of this colt is that the team is already looking further down the road. They’re not afraid to enter him in races against top talent but so far it has not paid off – 6th Oak Tree Juvenile, 11th Breeders’ Futurity. He’s bound to break through sooner rather than later but I don’t foresee it coming this weekend.
 
 4. Shanghai Bobby      R. Napravnik      T. Pletcher  2-1
 
The favorite deserves the honors. I have analyzed Shanghai Bobby several times so far this fall so let me sum up his chances by stating the obvious facts. Coming in he has the highest beyer speed figure - 94 in the Champagne Stakes. So, he’s good, he’s in great company with his only rider Rosie and his top trainer Todd. He’s proven his class, he’s proven that he can win with relative ease and finally, he’s shown he’s capable of doing it again this weekend. The only questions unanswered are if going two turns for the first time will be a problem or if the travel out west will throw him off his game. My only answer is that we’ll just have to wait and see.
 
5. Monument              J. Talamo           J. Sadler    12-1
 
This horse here is my live long shot. He’s a California bred and that’s the only place he’s ever raced. He hasn't yet raced in a Graded Stakes but I have a feeling that Sadler liked what he saw the last time Monument was out. Just three weeks ago Monument brought it home at Santa Anita in his biggest win of his early racing career, the California Cup Juvenile. Martin Garcia won’t return in the saddle and Joe Talamo takes over for the first time but at 12-1, it’s a nice price for me to play.
 
6. Dynamic Sky          L. Contreras       M. Casse    12-1
 
I always like when a horse’s connections skip the maiden races all together. Dynamic Sky got started at Woodbine and went right into Stakes races where he won one of his first two, the Simcoe Stakes. But, he will also be heading out to the dirt for the very first time. Not sure if that will be a factor but it hasn’t kept me from giving this colt a very hard look. I was impressed with his closing effort in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland but I can’t decide if he’ll be able to keep the momentum going after that gutsy 2nd place effort. If I end up playing this horse it will probably be at no less than 10 minutes to post.
 
7. Capo Bastone          J. Rosario           J. Sadler    15-1
 
Capo Bastone has taken a completely different path to the Juvenile than Sadler’s other entry Monument. After breaking his maiden in his debut at Del Mar it was time for Grade 1 competition. In his two Grade 1 races Capo Bastone has raced pretty solid, 4th place in the Del Mar Futurity followed by a 3rd place effort in the FrontRunner Stakes. I think of Capo Bastone the same way I do about He’s Had Enough; he’s going to score a big win pretty soon  but I’m not convinced it will be in the Juvenile.
 
8. Fortify            K. McLaughlin     R. Dominguez     9-2
 
One of the big reasons Fortify has yet to shine is because of who he’s raced against. Facing Shanghai Bobby on back to back occasions didn’t pay off but maybe the third time will be the charm. It’s not always a good resource to use but while watching an interview with Kiaran McLaughlin this week I was convinced that he doesn’t expect Fortify to get the best of this field. For now I compare him to Alpha because I think we’ll see his best stuff next year when he’s really ready to bloom in his 3-yr-old season.
 
9. Power Broker  B. Baffert           R. Bejarano       5-2
 
It’s fitting that Power Broker drew the final Post Position because it allows me to close this down with the horse that I think is going to win the Juvenile. Let’s get the easy stuff out of the way. Power Broker is racing at home in California, he’s trained by the legendary Bob Baffert and he’s got Rafi in the irons. The Baffert – Bejarano team can get red hot and they know this track frontwards and backwards. Finally, he’s got the distance under his belt already.
 
That’s the basic advantages but the one thing I like about this horse the most is the way he looked during his win in the FrontRunner Stakes. Without too much urging from Bejarano, Power Broker made a very strong move through the final turn and simply turned it into a one horse race down the stretch. He drove home so convincingly that I became that convinced myself.
 
The other factors that led to my decision to play Power Broker in the Juvenile were his PP in the FrontRunner, his position during the race and the fractions out front. Breaking from the 10 post was not a problem so the fact that he’ll be starting from the far outside is a non factor. How we broke on the other hand is.
 
 
I liked how Bejarano got him away clean and settled him down in third trailing by a length and a half through the ¾ pole. Which brings me to my final point; by the time he got there he was ready for another gear that no one else in the field had that day. That was most impressive because he wasn’t just coasting behind moderate fractions in the front. Cruising behind 23.19, 47.53 and 1:12.45 before taking the lead and rolling across the wire in 1:44.44 was strong. So strong it got my attention. I haven’t seen enough to get distracted so my instincts remain the same; the pick is Power Broker.
 

Good Luck to all of our entries, their owners, trainers, jockey’s and connections. We wish you the best and hope for a safe return to your respective stables as we look forward to seeing you continue your journey down the Road the 139th Kentucky Derby. 

 

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Older Comments about BC Juvenile: The Picks Are In...

Shanghai Bobby has already won at 3 different tracks on his rise to the top. Two turns is the only question but his last gives me confidence that he can handle it.
Shanghai Bobby is my pick. Power Broker 2nd.
It sure is starting to look like Power Broker is going to be the favorite.

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About Me

Meet Bryan Brinkmeyer – Chicago, IL

 

Growing up I spent a lot of days in the Bluegrass State. Although I was born and raised north of the mighty Ohio River in Southwest Indiana, I was still next door to thoroughbred racing; Ellis Park, Henderson, KY 

 

Likewise, the first Saturday in May was always a celebrated family event. As my two brothers and I got older the battle for picking the next winner began to heat up. In 2000, I made my inaugural Kentucky Derby appearance. Since then I’ve made it an annaual tradition because there’s no other city or weekend in the racing world like Louisville, KY on Derby Day. 

 

Although the story of a Kentucky Derby winner is legendary, following a champions trail is what The Kentucky Derby Post is all about. The coverage begins when the 2-yr-old preps commence but it does not quit racing until all results are official, the field is set, the picks are made and the roses are worn. But that’s not all because the road doesn’t stop on the First Saturday in May. The elusive quest for the next Triple Crown has reached 35 years so I invite my readers to remain in the saddle through all three legs as we await the next Champion of Champions. Cheers.

 

 



 

 


2013 Kentucky Derby