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The WINNER of the 2016 Kentucky Derby. Remember, you heard it here first. :-D
Surely just a "paid workout" for Beholder this weekend in the Adoration Stakes at her beloved Santa Anita??? She will probably go off at around odds of about 1-5, maybe even 1-9, and she should win under just a hand ride by 5 or more. I hope she is EXPLOSIVE as ever, she can definitely beat all-comers including Chrome, and I think she would put that young girl in her place..................... I'm talking about "Songbird" of course. :-)
The only one I'm familiar with in this field is Selenite... so?
Nyquist will run his heart out, and he will be gallant in defeat, but I see him finishing in the 2nd to 5th positions, in that ball park. Something coming from the back is going to get him. My top selection is Exaggerator, but I also think other closers like Brody's Cause, Creator and Suddenbreakingnews will also be there or thereabouts at the finish and are also big dangers and have a big chance of winning the whole thing.
Most riders NEW to the K Derby, (not all of course as Mario proved) get overhyped riding in that big race the first time. Beware firster riders...
  • andthey'reoff · I usually don't agree with your comments, but I do on this one. · 1 day ago
  • Ruffianlover · No one is hyping lanerie. If anything they think he will cost the horse · 56 minutes ago
Based on the poll on the site here, comments on other forums and social media chatter it seems like Mo Tom is the "wise guy" horse and may be a pretty big underlay in the Kentucky Derby. I like Mo Tom, he has showed he certainly has talent and I can see him winning big races but not on the first Saturday in May and not at those odds I expect. The reason he has gotten attention is that he has gotten into trouble and had a legitimate excuse in at least his last 3 races, and that is the exact reason why I don't like him. I can't see using a horse in a 20 horse field that seems to find trouble. Many with as much or more talent such as Union Rags, Lookin at Lucky, Saarland, Dollar Bill (off the top of my head) had similar hype and similar trouble in their preps and finished way back in the big one, and for at least the last two, as big underlays.
  • Thomas Marshall via Disqus · You need to do more research. He got attention when he beat Tom's Ready in a stakes race at Churchill and even more for finishing 3rd at Churchill against Airoforce in the slop while closing. · 12 days ago
  • Ruffianlover · Your analysis makes no sense. BECAUSE he has had trouble you SHOULD be considering him in the derby. I'll take a horse that still comes with his run even after getting taken up, blocked, stopped, checked any time over an untested horse. The added distance will only help him. Even if he runs into trouble with a bad trip- he will be flying late with the added distance as soon as he gets free in the stretch. Watch out · 58 minutes ago
What does everyone think about the jockey? he has put the horse in bad spots. Could it be a set up for a big pay out on Derby Day?
Corey Lanerie must realize he's no Calvin Borel. If you watch the Louisiana Derby, he hesitated at the top of the stretch while his horse had great momentum then decided to take the inside route which proved to be a fatal mistake. I believe of the two Uncle Mo colts, Tom will be the one better placed at the 1 1/4 distance. I didn't like the way Nyquist bore out in the stretch even though he won impressively. Amoss is a good trainer and if he says this is the best 3 year old he has ever trained then i'm onboard. I'm just hoping for a hot pace and hopefully we'll see the devastating close that Amoss has talked about.
  • Ruffianlover · Yes lanerie did not give him good rides but I don't think he did it on purpose- he was trying to do a move on the rail he made in another race and the hole closed up when a tired horse drifted inside. It happens and thats why the connections kept him on. There are more than two uncle no colts in the derby. Outwork is also by uncle mo and has the same connections as uncle mo. Also Nyquist veered out in the Florida derby because his rider looked to his inside left and pulled on the reigns which made Nyquist drift out. As soon as the rider looked forward Nyquist straightened out. The horse was just listening to his rider · 1 hour ago
1.Mo Tom 2.Nyquist 3.Mohaymen 4.Mor Spirit I also believe the time between races will benefit Mo Tom he came back and won from his last race last year with similar time between races and it also gave him time to recover from those last two brutal races he had physically. Really looking forward to saturday. Good Luck
As of right now my picks are: Destin, Mor Spirit, Whitmore, and My Man Sam. I'm going against the Uncle Mo and Tapit trios which a tough thing to do.
Heard them saying on TV a few minutes ago that jockey Ryan Moore is riding at a 33% strike rate over the past 2 weeks. He had 2 wins on yesterday's card at Chester including the Cheshire Oaks and he's already ridden winners on the 2 premier races today at Chester in the G3 Huxley Stakes & G3 Chester Vase. This guy can flat out ride. I often see comments where people say "he's always on short priced favorites." That may be, but why do you think he's one of the most sought after jockey's in the sport by these owners and trainers to put aboard their short priced favorites.
Mo Tom has a great post will get a good trip and run by them all...I HOPE,LOL I have him on pool 3 future bets and 60 win in pool3 ,I really think with a good trip he could be flying late .Anyway good luck to everyone betting ,hope this derby brings u some money..
  • imisswilltakecharge · I agree, see my comments below...I think there are several that can win with the "perfect trip," but I think if Mo Tom is finally given a real shot he could show the field what he is really made of! · 3 hours ago
US Army Ranger lives up to the hype, but just barely, narrowly holding off stablemate Port Douglas by a nose to win the G3 Chester Vase. My guess is that both of these colts will be headed to Epsom next month for the Derby.
My TOSSES so far for my tri and super tickets are: Trojan Nation, Shagaf, Danzing Candy, Lani, Oscar Nominated, Destin, Toms Ready, Whitmore (harder toss). Solo (key) horses on several tickets: Nyquist (reluctantly, but in a year where the favorite is going off at 4-1 I can't ignore him...style of running is perfect and is undefeated) Mo Tom (using the most-"heart" pick with bigger payout potential) Mor Spirit (medium) Outwork (small ticket) Exaggerator (medium) Mohaymen (small "save" ticket, in case Florida Derby was his clunker) Gun Runner (small) Majesto (small bomber)
Cannock Chase sprints clear of Western Hymn in 2nd and Master Carpenter in 3rd to win the G3 Huxley Stakes at Chester for jockey Ryan Moore and trainer Sir Michael Stoute. His first trip to the winners circle since he won the G1 Pattison Canadian International Stakes at Woodbine last October.
  • jonquil · I adore Cannock Chase, so I'm thrilled to see him win this so well! A little bummed at how Top Notch Tonto is still being run like that again -- I don't think I can ever recall him winning when run like that. Although it isn't like he was expected to win here. TNT needs softer ground to actually do much of anything, heh. · 3 hours ago
Looks like a very similar setup as Arkansas. Creator closer in with SBN next to him and speed coming from far outside. Hoping for a fast start and another strong finish by Creator.
Derby draw today folks feels great and excited were that much closer to the derby and my feeling haven't changed I do believe the pace will be honest I would love to have a chance to see back to back triple crown winners again (Seattle Slew 77" and Affirmed 78") if Nyquist gets by this race I believe he'll have a pretty good shot at history and O'neill and Gutierrez will have got what I'll Have Another probably would have given them, but I just have a feeling Mo Tom is going to nail them at the wire he is the X factor in this I believe he has yet to run basically a trouble free trip, he has not lost a race where you say can say he just got beat by a better horse he's proven a decent trip winning result. Nice trainer in amos, leading churchill downs jock in lanerie, has won at churchill downs and I believe he'll be laying midpack this time and let that potent kick go when lanerie calls on it. Good Luck Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • jd via Disqus · yup MO TOM WILL FLYING LATE Like Corey saying he s never ridin a horse this strong or good...Lots of confidence in Mo Tom · 3 hours ago
Here we go again ! Lets skip ahead to May 8th , the day after the Derby and this is what I'm hearing at the Kentucky bars. " Why didn't I bet my last $ 1000 on Nyquist ? " , " When Brody's Cause owner said he would donate the winnings to his school I should have jumped on that ", " Exaggerator was for real , no exaggerating " , " I love rum , why didn't I bet Rum Runner " ( ps : that dude had too much to drink ) " Destin was my first choice , he was destined to win ", MoTom + Mohaymen , it all makes perfect sense that they would run one two " , Cupid , with Mothers Day , Why didn't I think of that ? " , How about that Lani ? born in KY , studies in Japan, wins in Dubai , and easy winner in yesterday's Derby " , " Whitmore and Mor Spirit , Why didn't I play that ? We can do this all day to cover all 20 entries , but I'll let you guys and gals finish it for me . LOL + GOOD LUCK TO ALL !
  • Icelocks · winwinwin...Nice touch...Now I know you been in this business a long time lol Why don't you join me at the bar, the first drink is on me :) · 17 hours ago
  • hoof_hearted666 · How long did it take you to work all this out?? I bet you've been writing your notes out all week before posting this!!! hahaha, so what's your "funny witty line" for Danzing Candy then??? Maybe your mum or girlfriend is called Candy and she's going out dancing on Saturday night? That's gotta be it surely?? :-) · 3 hours ago
For those who like Exaggerator, Brody’s Cause, Creator, Suddenbreakingnews, Whitmore, My Man Sam, Trojan Nation, or Mo Tom, consider this: since 1984 (as far back as my records go), (a) only one horse won the Derby after trailing the rest of the field after 1/2 mile in his final prep and (b) only one horse won the Derby after trailing by 8 lengths or more after 1/2 mile in his final prep. The former was Unbridled in 1990, and he was part of a 5-horse field and only 2 lengths back of the leader in the Blue Grass after 1/2 mile. The latter was Grindstone in 1996; he was 13 lengths behind after 1/2 mile in the Arkansas Derby. Add to this the probability of a relatively slow pace and these eight horses are at a distinct disadvantage.
  • Show All 4 Comments
  • travel_vic · First call position means ZIP. Where they are at the 6 furlong call is the key. MANY wire or close to wire jobs in this race greater than 40 of them · 20 hours ago
  • jd via Disqus · Didn t Mine that Bird also pull it off? · 3 hours ago
going backwards in the last three races

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