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HRN Original Blog:
55,000 Furlongs to the Finish


Older Comments...

Groupie Doll's colt has returned home!!! Article later on Blood Horse.
Well you never know how the genes are gonna shake out but the blood of Danzig runs through his dam side as well as albeit,a little further back,the tenacious Icecapade(Wild Again) and I love the presence of Nureyev and !!!Hawaii on his sire side.The Nureyev line is hallowed in European turf blood and I have found that pedigrees carrying Nureyev,Drone,Turn-To and Hawaii show a prepotence for explosive tactical speed.Remember the pace should be moderate and runners with tactical speed may find runaway speed(AP) in the shadow of the wire.
This horse has serious talent, I had him ranked in my top five horses going into the Kentucky derby . The other four came in 1 2 3 4. With the time off this horse will win the belmont. Pletcher had palice malice , now its carpe . By the way , if your going to put your money on horses you need to be able to think outside the box at times. Dallas Stewart has had both longshots come in at the Kentucky derby the past two years. Thats the reason I had the 1_ 5 excata on 100 dollars which payed 6000 at the preakness. Goodluck ill be boxing carpe , frosted , materialty, itsmyluckyday for a exacta box.
Retired with a hairline fracture to one of her sesamoids.
Wins the Brigadier Gerard Stakes in a thrilling finish.
Oaklawn Handicap winner Race Day (minor setback) unlikely for the $500,000 Stephen Foster (G1), 6/13 at Churchill, per owner Matt Schera. According to DRF
Keeping it civil....the %80 notwithstanding the Belmont is a betting race as well as getting the feather for picking the winner....and Materiality scores on my algorithm on 3 variables:pedigree,trainer and speed figs(lacking only on 2 yr foundation)but the pace in this race is not grueling and it is very much a tactical affair.Sure AP could win...but I'll take my chances(while not spending a fortune) on Materiality as my key.
This is now the hardest of the 3 races to handicap,and come out with a winner. No longer can we say that this or that horse is the best. If that were the case,Zayat and company would be celebrating already. If American Pharoah has not convinced you that he is absolutely head and shoulders above the rest in the talent department, then a win in the Belmont should not be the straw that broke the camels back. It is hard because we do not know which horse is at his absolute best physically. You see,everyone points for the Derby , so more often than not the horss are in the best condition that we can ask for. The 12 F distance of the Belmont is a very overated thing in my opinion. Unless you get a fluke scenerio, the jocks usually turn this into a 9 or 10 F race. By that i mean, they walk around the track for the first 3 furlongs and supposedly jockey for position. After the lights go on, then they start to put their horses into the race. Hard to figure out as to how American Pharoah is doing physically. Baffert is doing an amazing job in not showing his hand. Please do not listen to those they say that they know this and they know that. There are just a very small handful that really know how he is doing. The rest of us are only speculating. Last year was a bit easier to do that, Chrome was an open book for everyone. When he went to the bathroom,it was like we were all there with him.This race is not about rooting for or against A.P in what is ahead of him. Believe me, wanting or not wanting him to win ,is not going to be the determining factor. As i look at the race,i personally think that it is between A.P. and Carpe Diem. A few notches bellow are Marerialistic and Frosted. But after that, should anyone else win this race. In my opinion it will be the ultimate in when we say"The Race fell apart"
Pants on Fire worked 4f today, May 28th, in 48:80 (b). It was the fourth fastest of 28 works at that distance.
This guy had a bad post in the Derby, for sure! However he ran near the back, much of the race, saved all the ground, and still could not get close to the front-end! Just because his sire is Afleet Alex, this in no way means he can run as far as his Dad! Afleet Alex was an exceptional athlete, and as tough as they come! He was trained 2 -3 times harder than the average racehorse today, thru interval training! When the other colts catch up, and start running faster times, I believe Materiality will end up being most effective up to a mile, maybe a mile and a sixteenth, that's it. Over the years, I've watched millions of race horses, and have selected the winner of the Derby, and the trifecta, six years in a row! I find the Belmont, to be the toughest race to handicap, as no matter how great the horses look coming in, you just have no way of knowing what's left in the tank? If you need any help, be sure to follow me on Twitter @saratogajack .. Best of luck to all!
Unitarian worked 5f today, May 28th, in 1:01:22 (b). It was the fastest of 6 works at that distance.
Twilight Eclipse worked 5f today, May 28th, in 1:03:55 (b). It was the seventh fastest of 7 works at that distance.
To all the faithful of this horse. You can hope and want him to run in the Belmont, but it will be for naught unless they make the change. That change will be to add the BIG L (Lasix). There is no way that this horse will be able to compete without it.
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  • Viper4 via Disqus · Three questions: What year did you take out you trainer's licence? How many horses have you trained and how many grade 1 races have you won in your career. Actually, there's fourth: are you just a handicapper who has betting on horses confused with training them? · 22 days ago
  • flint.lalli · No triple crown winner ever ran on lasix in the Belmont. It was outlawed in New York until I believe 1994 or 1995. If this horse doesn't get it done, furosemide won't be the reason. · 2 hours ago
When you hear the comments of the Trainers of horses like Truth or Else, Frammento,Keen Ice and any other horse that is supposedly tailor made for the SCARY 12F distance. Read between the lines and see what they are really telling you. Do not buy and drink their Kool-Aid. To begin with, how many 12F races on the dirt are there. They are telling you ,that in comparisson to the upper tier 3 yos'. Their horses do not belong in the more conventional distances. Their only hope to winning is that the others do not handle the distance,and that their horses can negotiate it in a time that can win. Bottom line is that these have shown to be slow Race Horses. Many get seduced into thinking that they are the one,because they make up 2 lengths from the back of the pack.What they fail to realize is that ,even with that artificial close. They are nowhere near contending. So to you owners, here is a tip. If your trainer is whispering in your ear that your horse can run all day. Pray to the racing gods , that he can somehow run on the Turf. If he can't, you have a Graded plodder on your hands.
I assume Espinoza will ride Sky Kingdom.
Conquest Curlinate has pulled out. They saw Pharoah up close down at CD and got nervous. lol American Pharoah reminds me of early Mike Tyson. The fight was over at the weigh-in. With Pharoah it's over with the breeze. lol
You can see why he'd be a threat to AP in the Belmont. A rested TOV vs a tired AP with another 5/16 of track to work with and maybe there isn't a horse in his way this time? If you were ever going to bet on a horse in the Belmont who just broke his maiden two races ago, this would be the time to do it.
Right now I have to toss this horse. I just don't believe he can compete here in America. The change of feed, change of jockey, etc. I'll take my chances betting against him rather than with him.
  • Blueyedhusky via Disqus · Has had a lot more time to adjust. I think it was a mistake to bring him for the KD so close to the race. He was one-paced, but didn't do badly. I think we'll see him showing a lot more in the Belmont. As far as jockey-change is concerned, he's been ridden by different jockeys before. I think Irad will suit him well, and he has a bone to pick with Frosted. · 6 hours ago
The two most unattainable records in sports are Gretzky's points record in hockey and Secretariat's Belmont. Any opinions?
  • Show All 6 Comments
  • tmallios via Disqus · Mary gets the prize,for her top selection. Did you enjoy the Derby Mary????? Unless Vyjack shows up on Belmont Stakes Day,looks as though i will be a no-show.All signs are pointing to another run at the Triple Crown. I can't go through a repeat of last year. · 23 days ago
  • imisswilltakecharge · I think Cal Ripken's consecutive games played is right there too; also the 56-game hitting streak of Joe D. More likely that could go down than Cal's streak for sure though. Secretariats record-Ripken-Gretsky-Joe D's hitting streak I think in that order for me. Although most average sports fans don't understand how dominating Secretariats record is, they should at least be able to see its importance based on historical perspective like the other records! I'm 36 and it's feasible that I could randomly see a string of 3 or 4 Triple Crown winners (just saying--weak years, a great horse, etc.) over 30 years maybe. Love me some old records coming tumbling down in any sport! Always cool and unique to say you saw it! I remember the last Yankee game I went to with my dad was when Randy Velarde (with the Oakland A's at the time) had an unassisted triple play. That was kind of cool and it made me always remember a way to look up the date! · 6 hours ago

Meet Matt Scott 

My horseracing journey began when I was 16 years old and my mom took me to Hollywood Park. Although I did not fully appreciate it at the time, the experience stuck with me forever. 10 years later, during one of my many international business trips to Hong Kong, I visited Sha Tin racetrack to watch the races. This is where my true passion began. 


Holding a masters degree in mechanical engineering, the puzzle of handicapping intrigued me. I have made a career of making decisions based on trends, patterns, and formulas, which is why I think I was initially drawn to the sport. However, I have truly learned to appreciate the horses and how magnificent they are as athletes. 


I currently live in San Jose, CA, and when not following racing, I like to spend time with my wife, mountain bike, and design high-speed bicycles that I build and race For reference, 55,000 furlongs is the distance from Hong Kong to my home in San Jose. Also, I have 1-year-old dachshund (aka wiener dog) that I am training to race in the annual Wiener Nationals held at Golden Gate Fields.   


The purpose of this blog is to help give people the viewpoint of a fan that is newer to the sport and eager to learn. I like to respectfully speak my mind, and often the ideas come out of left field, which could give a fresh perspective on a sport rich with tradition and history. hope to represent the many future fans that I wish to follow my footsteps into the Sport of Kings. 

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