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HRN Original Blog:
Drive On

OSS Gold Superfinals night at Mohawk! Full-card analysis/Drive On Bets

Bee A Magician - Harness
Photo: New Image Media

There is a great card of racing on tap tonight at beautiful Mohawk Racetrack in Campbellville, Ontario headlined by the return of the Queen of harness racing, Ontario’s own Bee A Magician. The Queen Bee has been flawless in winning all 13 starts so far in 2013, highlighted by an easy win in the prestigious Hambletonian Oaks. Many experts and onlookers believed she had an excellent chance of beating the boys in the Hambo itself, but the connections – fearing the effect racing multiple heats in one day might have on their champion filly – chose to take the easy money and keep her fresh for the fall campaign. Tonight she faces some clearly overmatched foes that would do well to stay within a few lengths by the time the Bee stops the teletimer. Bee A Magician will be contesting one of the 8 $200,000 OSS Gold Superfinal dashes on tap at the 7/8 mile oval.

There will also be an exhibition RUS (Racing Under Saddle) race held after race two which has increased interest because Queen’s Plate winning jockey (Mike Fox 2009) Emma-Jayne Wilson will be riding what looks to be the fastest horse in the race in her RUS debut. This comes just a few days after prominent Canadian jockey Chantal Sutherland set a new North American record of 159.1 – albeit in a third attempt that day – piloting DWs NY Yank at The Meadows in a Time Trial.

There are several good betting opportunities on tonight’s Superfinal card so let’s get down to the full-card analysis followed by the “Drive On Bets” segment.

1 -- Pace, purse $34,000 (DD, EX, P3)PREFERRED.
This is a stellar field of five Preferred pacers and while it 
is almost sure to be a great race to watch, it is unlikely to
be a very good betting race. While we prefer #5 BestofBest
Hanover based on his razor-sharp recent form, he is likely to
be fifth and last early and a victim of fractions. If the
fractions are reasonable and he can latch onto decent cover
he will be right there on the wire. But there’s no guarantee
of that happening in a short field. #2 Camaes Fellow is still
in top form and has been victim to contested paces and no
breathers the past couple of starts. If he makes front early
(likely) and gets even one cheap quarter, look out!
#3 Upfront Hoosierboy is also in tremendous form but would
be a serious underlay if sent off at his 8/5 morning line.
I wouldn’t take less than 2/1 on any starter in this
contentious quintet.
 

2 -- Trot, purse $200,000 (EX, P3, TR)

ONTARIO SIRES STAKES - SUPER FINAL - 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES

I think it’s fairly obvious even to a novice handicapper that the #7 Riveting Rosie is likely a short-priced easy winner here if she stays flat. We’d love to try to beat her, but that seems a futile money-burning exercise. Instead we will look for some value in the exactas by using both #4 Nickange Two and #3 Mayberry underneath. Both have shown both ability and the propensity to break in their short careers. We’re thinking if one – or both – stay on gait, we’ll be cashing a decent exacta when they hit the wire. There is risk, of course, but the potential reward looks decent with these 8/1 morning line shots used underneath the big chalk.

3 -- Trot, purse $200,000 (EX, P3, TR)

ONTARIO SIRES STAKES - SUPER FINAL - 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES

The aforementioned #6 Bee A Magician is shooting for Horse Of The Year in North America. This race should be a stroll in the Mohawk park for her. Again looking for some value in the exotics, we will take a straight exacta using #4 Princess Lily (12/1 m/l) underneath. Her most recent start – where she took a new life’s mark – is certainly the best of her career and the 27.2 kicker on the end is most impressive. #5 Angies Lucky Star came within inches of recording a monumental upset of the Bee earlier in the year at Mohawk and will be prominently placed again. You could do worse than a 6/45/45 tri key in this dash.

 

4 -- Pace, purse $200,000 (EX, P3, TR, Y4)

ONTARIO SIRES STAKES - SUPER FINAL - 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES

This is one of the more contentious Super Finals of the evening. That being said, we like the #1 Request For Parole a lot and feel she will be bet MUCH lower than the 7/1 morning line price. Two back RFP changed her racing style and came up with an impressive late charge to set a new life’s mark of 152.0. Last time she was hogtied by a slow early pace but finished an impressive 3rd despite getting burned in the 3rd quarter which she paced in a remarkable 25.3 herself! She is clearly razor-sharp right now and figures to get a much better trip tonight. We will be using her and one other, the #9 Love Canal in the early Pick 4. Love Canal was also first-up last start – which isn’t her best trip – but she retained her sharpness for this more lucrative event and will be charging late. The #10 Seaside Rory comes into this off a stellar 151.1 front-end effort which was aided by a slow early pace. I look for Jamieson to blast right to the top when the gate pulls away then take cover in the pocket in the second quarter. This filly is dangerous, too, but the 10-hole may be her undoing.

 

 

5 -- Trot, purse $200,000 (EX, P3, SU, TR)

ONTARIO SIRES STAKES - SUPER FINAL - 2 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS

Another contentious looking field and we’ll be going 4-deep in the Pick 4 here, but will be looking for a minor upset in the win pool with the #3 Massive Muscles who looks primed to trot the race of his life tonight. His most recent start off a 35-day layoff was spectacular as he closed 11 lengths in an individually-timed 28 flat final quarter. Little-know driver Renaud in the bike can only boost the price. #10 Deweykeepumnwhy is obviously the fastest colt in the field but may get stung just enough early from the outermost post to lead to being overtaken late. #6 Great White Way was an impressive winner the first time red-hot Doug McNair took the lines. Also using #9 Muscle Matters who should out-trot his 8/1 morning line odds.

6 -- Pace, purse $20,000 (EX, P3, SU, TR)

NW $14,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $28,000 LAST 10 STARTS

Once again we look to the best-named horse in the sport - #5 Piston Broke to break through with an overdue win. While the Piston has taken to coming from off the pace recently, he may be more effective leading turning home and Davis may get aggressive tonight and put him in the race earlier. He certainly has retained his sharpness and is one of the best ones in here. #1 Mach Pride has sneaky good form and is a good one to include on pick 4 tickets at a juicy morning line price. Watch for him to be put into this race unlike last time where he stayed in while Speed Again put up solid fractions including a sizzling 26.2 3rd quarter. #10 OK Commander was beaten by two razor-sharp rivals last time which would surely annex this dash if they were in it. Stands a solid chance despite post and there is no secret where he’s heading when the wings of the gate fold open. We’ll use ‘em all and go three-deep in here.

7 -- Trot, purse $200,000 (EX, P3, SU, TR)

ONTARIO SIRES STAKES - SUPER FINAL - 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS

It’s pretty hard to go against the ultra-consistent #7 Flanagan Memory I here, so we won’t. That being written, we will also use the #3 Thankyoukessel who was compromised by pace and trip vs. Flanagan last out and stand’s a puncher’s chance of knocking him off here with a better trip and pace scenario. #4 Buddy Hally has been beaten by the top two recently but does come into this race in top shape and form.

Early Pick 4 tickets: Big ticket: 19/36910/1510/37 = $48 for $1 minimum or $9.60 for a 20-cent wager. Economy ticket: 19/310/1510/37=$24 for $1 or $4.80 for a 20-cent bet.

 

8 -- Pace, purse $200,000 (EX, P3, SU, TR, Z4)

ONTARIO SIRES STAKES - SUPER FINAL - 2 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS

The #5 Bugger Bruiser showed racehorse speed early (27.1) and late (27.1) last week over Mohawk beating many of these rivals. He is tough to go against as the “now” horse in this spot. #7 Crafty Master was the one the top choice overhauled late and should also be used on Pick 4 tickets. We would be remiss if we did not give local owner Adriano Sorella’s colt Twin B Spy a call in here, even though he has the 10-hole. Considering the roll his owner has been on the past couple of months – see his Vegas Vacation winning The Little Brown Jug among other prominent wins by the Hanovers, Scandalous and Ewald – would you really be that shocked if he won this, too?

 

9 -- Pace, purse $200,000 (EX, P3, SU, TR)

ONTARIO SIRES STAKES - SUPER FINAL - 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES

Based on recent form and especially the speed shown by Sudoku late in her miles, she stands out in the Super Final. A pick 4 single for us. #5 Meadowland Lindeylou went a huge trip at Grand River last week and could complete the exacta art a square price. #8 Porsche Seelster is still a maiden but has been around the money at the wire in several starts recently and is a good one to use in tris and supers.

 

10 -- Pace, purse $200,000 (EX, P3, SU, TR)

ONTARIO SIRES STAKES - SUPER FINAL - 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS

We really like the mile #9 OK Fantastic put in against the white-hot aged horse Ellis Park which should prime him for a big effort and possible an upset at a very, very good price. Using in the pick 4, win and exacta pool. The #1 Mach It So will take the bulk of the wagering support with good reason. His 8 for 13 record and $353K in earnings has him ranked first in this division and he will be formidable from the rail. Using both #9 and #1 in the late Pick 4. #8 Brock’s Fortune also exit’s a 150 flat mile by Ellis Park and is a great horse to include in exotics. He is sure to retain his sharpness (notice the 26.2 last quarter speed)

 

11 -- Pace, purse $12,500 (EX, LD, SU, TR)

NW $5,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $12,500 LAST 10 STARTS

The late Pick 4 finale looks fairly wide open, so we’ll go 5-deep and hope for a price starting with #8 Smokin Bear who dropped into this class last week, took all kinds of money and failed to hit the board. Look for “The Postman” Anthony MacDonald to send this one hard on the driver switch and take ‘em a long way, perhaps bottoming out this field. The #1 Joshua My Boy shows a similar closing effort to the horse driver Condren won Friday night’s finale with at 16/1. Using. #3 Manchester Hanover is worth including in the Pick 4 at 15/1 morning line odds. He needs to get away better than 10th to contend, but if he gets out better and gets some live cover he is capable of looping the all late and blowing up the pick 4 payoff. We are also using #6 Cheyenne Moishe (Montini) and #9 Lennon Blue Chip purely on trainer angles.

Late Pick 4 ticket:57/4/19/13689 $20 for $1 or $4 for a 20-cent minimum. We will be pressing this ticket singling the 5 in leg 1 and 1 in leg 3 (5/4/1/13689)

 

12 -- Pace, purse $16,000 (EX, SU, TR)

NW $8,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $20,000 LAST 10 STARTS.

W/O $28,000 LAST 10 STARTS NOT ELIGIBLE

 

#7 Drain Daddy bounced back with a better effort vs. much better than these last time and looks juicy in here at 8/1 in the morning line with McNair handling the lines. He also holds a recency edge on most of these as does #9 Cool Rock who has hit his best stride lately and will be charging hard and vaulting past horses late. #3 Bay Of Sharks looks like the most prominent early speed threat and should certainly be kept in the exotics mix.

 

Drive On Bets: Starting balance: $2,000 – Current balance: $5,018.50

Race 2: $20 Exacta 7/34; $10 Tri 7/34/34 ($60 Total)

Race 3: $40 Exacta 6/4, $20 Exacta 6/5, $30 tri 6/4/5, $10 tri 6/5/4 (Total $100)

Race 4: $5 Pick 4: 19/36910/1510/37 = Total $240 and $5 Pick 4: 19/310/1510/37 = Total $120; $40 Win 1, $20 exacta box 19 – Grand total race 4 = $440

 

Race 8: $5 Pick 4: 57/4/19/13689 ($100 Total) and $20 Pick 4: 5/4/1/13689 ($100 Total) $25 exacta box 5-7 = Grand Total Race 8=$250.

Race 10: $20 exacta box 1-9, $40 Win #9 ($80 total)

$5 Pick 3: 19/13689/379 = $150 (Grand Total Race 10 = $230)

 

Race 12: $100 Win #7, $20 Exacta 7/39, $5 tri box 379 = $170 total.

 

Total wagered = $1,250 = Current balance $3,768.50 = + $1,768.50

 

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Older Comments about OSS Gold Superfinals night at Mohawk! Full-card analysis/Drive On Bets...

Poor wagering results for Drive On Bets on Superfinal night, cashing only the $25 exacta ($9.80) in race 8 for $122.50 bringing the new balance to $3,891 = +$1,891 from the original $2,000 starting balance.

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Meet Garnet Barnsdale

 

I am an Honours Graduate from Humber College School of Journalism and a lifelong race fan and handicapper who has been watching and wagering on harness racing for more than 30 years. I was a staff writer for The Standardbred magazine in the late '80s. I will attempt to provide both beginners and veterans with valuable information and handicapping tips and advice on the top events from all major harness circuits.