It’s time for North America Cup #30! There
are several storylines that have developed in what promises to be an exciting
competitive race. Can morning line favorite Captain Treacherous follow in his
great daddy’s footsteps and take the Cup just 5 years after Somebeachsomewhere’s
memorable tour-de-force? Can local hope Vegas Vacation, 4 for 4 in 2013, bring
home a popular win and set off a wild celebration? Will driver Sylvain Filion
follow in his father Yves footsteps (Runnymede Lobell in Cup #5) and drive Fool
Me Once into the Mohawk winner’s circle? Is Odds On Equulus back to his best
from after a disappointing Somebeachsomewhere Stakes stretch drive and can he
threaten the 3 elimination winners? Will Tony Alagna’s “other” entry Wake Up
Peter shock them all? There are certainly many possibilities tonight and the
best part of all is, that at press time, conditions are perfect for a run at
the stakes and track record of 148.1 set by Sportswriter in 2010. That retired
stallion will be on display at the entrance for the public to visit and take
pictures with as just one of many attractions and promotions that are sure to
attract a large and enthusiastic crowd.
As far as the Cup goes, we feel that many
of these colts have caught up to Captain Treacherous from a speed standpoint
and while we aren’t going to take anything away from what “The Captain” has
accomplished and his stellar record thus far we certainly don’t see his
opponents laying down in a $1,000,000 race – especially considering at least
one of them, Fool Me Once, paced faster last week than the Captain’s fastest
lifetime mark. From a trip standpoint it’s hard to tell how this will go other
than the inside 4 are likely to leave rapidly to ensure position with Fool Me
Once looking to lead or sit the pocket. We see local hero Vegas Vacation
sitting 4th, 5th or 6th early and looking for
2nd-over cover. If he gets that live cover, he will be very very
tough to hole off. People may not remember at this point that he fires home
like a rocket off a helmet, but we haven’t forgotten. We’ll call him for the
popular local win, followed by another who will be advancing in the flow, Odds
On Equulus, who returned to his best form at the perfect time last week. He
should also be bet to win at 8/1 or thereabouts. We will also be using Fool Me
Once in the early pick as he is just too sharp to leave out and hope we are
live to the last leg and topple The Captain, just like we did last fall in The
Breeders Crown when we cashed the pick 4. Now, on to the Full-Card Analysis and
“Drive On Bets” segment – which has been on fire lately.
RACE 1: PURSE $16000. NW $9,200 LAST 5
STARTS OR NW $20,000 LAST 10 STARTS.
#6 Winbak Warrior steps up a level
following an impressive win a class lower. Unlikely to go postward at his 6/1
m/l odds. Missed a week, but gets top billing vs. these. #7 Im Feeling Good
shows a win in 51 flat just a month ago – fits vs. these and may offer some
exotics value. #8 Machs Beach Boy drops back to the class where he last won – a
hugely profitable angle for us – this looks like a good 3-horse exacta box
RACE 2: PURSE $271470. ARMBRO FLIGHT -
FINAL - FILLIES & MARES.
#3 Maven is a bona fide superstar and
should not have any trouble with these. Figures an easy winner at a short
price. Bet against her at your own peril. For the bottom rung of the exacta and
tri we will be using #2 Personal Style, a very consistent mare who will be
vaulting past opponents late and #8 Unfoisdansmavie from the Burke stable who
came with a huge closing brush to be a close third last week.
Race 3: PURSE $364266. ELEGANTIMAGE - FINAL
- 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES.
#2 Bee A Magician, 2012 ‘O Brien Award
winner, has returned to the racetrack with a vengeance, winning 4 races either
on the lead or first-over showing a new more aggressive style. There appears to
be quite a bit of speed to chase in here and this filly will likely rally from
a bit further back this time for a popular win. #9 Shared Past went a monster
first-over trip last time when stung in a 27.3 third quarter and still held second.
Great number for the exotics and rates an upset chance. #3 Angies Lucky Star
will be rolling up front hoping to take ‘em all the way. On our tris and
exactas. #5 2012 Dan Patch award winner To Dream On has not returned in good
form at all and is a strong play against for us against much sharper mares.
Will take plenty of action in the exotic and could easily miss the ticket.
Race 4: PURSE $20000. NW $14,000 LAST 5
STARTS OR NW $28,000 LAST 10 STARTS.
#5 Top Gear looks solid in this spot coming
off a good effort in the Preferred class after handing millionaire Mystician a
loss the race prvious a class lower than this. We’ll also be using #2 Leafs And
Wings on our pick 4 tickets and #3 Donau. The former showed excellent early and
late speed winning a class lower recently and is certainly good value at 15/1
m/l. The latter races much better closer to the pace and is likely to blast off
the gate vs. these and look for a pocket trip, which he converted into a 150.4
win in this class 6 race back.
RACE 5: PURSE $391882. FAN HANOVER - FINAL
- 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES.
The two main protagonists in this dash both
like to race near the front and it is possible that they could fry each other
and set the race up for a closer, it’s unlikely either driver will eliminate
his filly in a $390K race. #8 Jerseylicious comes in from The Big M with a 149
flat mile at the top of her card and will be very tough and may go off as
second choice to 2012 ‘O Brien winner #4 Iluvthenitelife who obviously figures
tough in here. We like the #9 Belle Boyd for exacta and tri tickets. She
certainly hasn’t placed a hoof in the wrong place with 7 wins and a 2nd
in 8 starts this year and should also be included on deeper pick 4 tickets as
she rates a decent chance of toppling the top 2 with the right trip.
RACE 6: PURSE $24000. NW $25,000 LAST 5
STARTS, OR NW $37,000 LAST 10 STARTS
This is a race you need to go deep on pick
4 tickets – we are using 4 and still aren’t supremely confident. That being
written, we like the #9 Mach Dreamer – who drops in from two sub-150 miles in
the Preferred class best. Dominator Doug McNair should have this one live on a
helmet turning home and will be swallowing up horses down the middle of the
track. May offer a square price from the 9-hole, too. #1 All Speed Hanover has
obviously seen better days, but, remarkably turned in a sub-1:49 mile in only
his second start following a 20-month absence from the racing wars. A must-use
from the rail. #3 Mystician has delivered twice in a row as chalk in lower
classes and need only an honest early pace to contend. Also using #7 Simply
Business, whose biggest moment came right here at The ‘Hawk as a 2YO in The
Metro Pace Final.
RACE 7: PEPSI NORTH AMERICA CUP XXX - FINAL
- 3 YEAR OLDS.
See above for race analysis. 1.#2 VEGAS VACATION 2. #8 ODDS ON
#4 CAPTAIN TREACHEROUS 4. #3 FOOL ME ONCE
Using #2, #8, and #3 on pick 4's.
RACE 8: PURSE $16000. NW $9,200 LAST 5
STARTS OR NW $20,000 LAST 10 STARTS.
The second pick 4 kicks off here and WE
love a single that is unlikely to go off anywhere near his 7/1 m/l odds. #3
Hilarious Halo came within one tick of equalling his life mark two back with a
stellar win a class lower. Stepped up two classes last time, his 6th-place
finish gets him into this class and a repeat of his penultimate effort makes
short work of these. Single. #5 Cams Tux likely wins his last if he doesn’t
break, but the extra week off doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence that things
are straightened out. #9 Wild Dragon drops into a class where he has been
competitive repeatedly in the past and is a good exotics horse if not the
worst-drawing horse of all time in terms of post position.
RACE 9: PURSE $225276. GOODTIMES - FINAL -
3 YEAR OLDS.
This is a leg in which you should go deep
in search of a price. We will be using 4 horses starting with the
rapidly-improving Moreau pupil #2 Gotta Secret who blasted home in 27.2 to take
his elim and a new life’s mark last week. Also a good win bet if close to the
m/l price of 5/1. Also using #5 Toocool Forschool who is very fast but has gait
issues, #7 Hamdalla, an exacta machine (12 of 16 first/second) and #9 Flanagan
Memory who has been closing stoutly this year.
RACE 10: PURSE $24000. NW 4 RACES OR
We feel confident going 3-deep here. #3
Varadero Hanover and #4 Sweet Talking Satin both drop from the NA Cup elims and
hold a huge class edge. #6 Windsong Jack – a stellar OSS performer last year –
makes a belated start to the season but is dangerous nonetheless.
RACE 11: A competitive field of stellar
Free For Allers complete the pick 4 in what looks to be a great edition of The
Mohawk Gold Cup. We are going 6-deep in the pick 4 here and if live would love
to see #8 Classic Rock N Roll mow them all down late. While hos current form
doesn’t exactly jump off the page, he has been lightly raced since the Levy
series and comes into this race tight having raced on both the 1st
and 8th of June. Rates an upset chance at a monster price. #5 Modern Legend returns to
the local circuit off a very close 3rd to 147.3 winner #2 Fred and
Ginger in the TVG FFA series at The Meadowlands. Using all three plus Molson
Pace winner #1 State Treasurer, former NA Cup winner #6 Up The Credit and #9
Warawee Needy who is sure to be on a speed mission from the outset.
RACE 12: PURSE $16000. NW $9,200 LAST 5
STARTS OR NW $20,000 LAST 10 STARTS.
Looking for another upset here with #1
Rollem Up who has hit his best stride recently and will be circling horses on
the last turn for A-Mac. Square price and a good shot to hit the exacta. #4
Scottiestrikesfame showed a hugely-improved effort in this class last start
circling horses widest and is a big threat in here also at a good price. #8
Cool Rock is always closing latest and fastest but his style seems to work
better at Woodbine which is strange really.
RACE 13: #3 Kindly Poet, the classy
veteran, moves inside from a full house of 10-holes and 7-holes in his last 5
starts: Handicapping 101 – he’ll be right there on the wire tonight. #7 Goban
comes in from Pocono and is almost a lock to blast to the top for The Postman.
He may take these a long way. #2 Fire On The Water raced huge last time on this
his favorite oval and is a threat to take another.
DRIVE ON BETS: Current Balance: $4296.70
Starting Balance: $2000
Race 1: $10 exacta box 6-7-8, $2 tri box
6-7-8 = $72
Race 3: $20 exacta 2/39; $5 exacta 39/2;
$10 tri 2/39/39; $5 tri 39/2/39 = $80
Race 4: $1 Pick 4: 235/489/1379/238 = $108
(can also be played for $21.60 for 20 cents)
Race 7: $20 exacta box 2-8; $40 win #8 =
Race 8: $1 Pick 4: 3/2579/346/125689 = $72;
$20 exacta 3/59; $5 tri 3/59/59 = total $102
Race 11: $2 exacta 8/12569; $4 exacta
12569/8; $2 pick 3 125689/148/3 = total $66
Race 12: $5 exacta box 148; $3 tri box 148
= total $48
Total wagers = $556
Current Balance = $3,740.30
Starting Balance = $2,000
GOOD LUCK AND SEE YOU AT THE ‘HAWK!