If you followed the Drive On blog’s selections last Saturday, you may have done as well as we did at the windows. We finally broke the Pick 4 ice in the “Drive On Bets” section with a monster $1902 payout. Hopefully we can turn in a repeat performance with this full-card analysis of tonight’s Mohawk card.
Trot, purse $20,000 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 (FM 5) RACES OR $70,000 LT
Sure to be favored in the opening dash is #5, Our Mojo, who comes in off a solid 2nd vs. similar. Our issue with him is his 0-14 win ecord this year. We are going to try to beat him out of the exacta totally and start the night off with a bang. #6 Adreamcomestrue AS comes into this race for a trainer whose horses hit the exacta 40% of the time. Also boasts the fastest last ¼ and will benefit from the switch to Mohawk. Plenty to like. #7 Strategy showed some late interest last Saturday and has several final 1/4s that would put him close. I look for Jackie Mo to move this one earlier than in previous races. #2 On the Podium makes his first start back in the dangerous Montini barn and did show some life in the 3rd ¼ of his qualifier. The board may provide some clues with this one.
Pace, purse $16,000 NW $8,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $20,000 LAST 10 STARTS.
#9 Mach of Ballykeel is a Mohawk-lover that comes into this race in good enough form for us to take a stab at a juicy price. #6 Mystician quite often looks much the best on paper - like he did last week - and fails to get there. Worth taking a stab against at low odds again. #3 My Man Charley got seriously stung by another front-ender last Saturday and figures to get a much better trip. Could go a long way on the chooch.
Race 3: Pace, purse $75,000 SOMEBEACHSOMEWHERE - 3 YEAR OLDS.
In this final prep prior to the North America Cup eliminations next week, locally-owned #2 Vegas Vacation looks best coming in off an impressive first-over win in which he took a new life’s mark of 149.3. Expect a low price and a fairly easy win. #5 Captive Audience has been raced conservatively so far this season and could provide a late challenge to VV. #4 Evenin of Pleasure has looked the part of a very good one right from his debut race and comes into this in sharp form for leading trainer Moreau.
Race 4: Pace, purse $20,000 (EX, P3, TR, Y4) 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 RACES OR $95,000 LT
We really liked the way #2 Astor raced last week first time over The ‘Hawk. He was aggressively handled and ended up in a prolonged duel with Mach It Big, who came back and won easily last night in London. Tonight he gets the trainer’s main pilot McNair who will most likely work out a better trip. Maybe my biggest wager of the night if he goes close to the m/l of 5/1. #5 D Terminata has seen better days, but comes into this off a decent showing vs. top 3YO colt Vegas Vacation. Dangerous. #9 Smokin Bear went much farther on the engine than I thought he might last week. Worth a look. The #8 Warawee Nonsuch is also worth pick 4 inclusion, but, he will be a short price and shows many 2-week gaps on his card - not a good sign to me.
Race 5: Trot, purse $20,000 NW $13,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $31,000 LAST 10 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $45,000
There are several in here with two-week or more gaps between races which makes us think that #4 Midfield Magic, who sharpened up on Monday night vs. much better in the Preferred class, is a solid play in here. A Pick 4 single on some of our tickets. #3 To Catch A Dream, with a mark of 154.1 at Mohawk last year, showed good late interest in his most recent at Woodbine and figures close here. #5 Slip Into Glide comes in off a dominant win vs. lesser in 153.0 but that was TWENTY EIGHT days ago which raises major red flags for me. Most don’t keep hot horses eating in the barn for 4 weeks.
Race 6: Pace, purse $12,500 NW $5,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $10,000 LAST 10 STARTS
#2 Cams Tux comes into this with a race from the 10-hole at Woodbine that, if duplicated, beats these. Expect Dominator Doug McNair to put him into the race much earlier with the post switch. We’re not crazy about the 10-hole for #10 Kindly Poet, but also expect a more aggressive drive with the drop in class. #1 Blackbird Singing is a capable sort that has been doomed by several outer posts recently at Woodbine, Could spice up the exotics pays and is even worth inclusion on wider-spread pick 4 tickets.
Race 7: Pace, purse $20,000 NW $14,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $28,000 LAST 10 STARTS
#1 Major Hottie took a season’s mark of 149.0 last summer at Mohawk and comes into this off a sharp qualifier in rein to Filion in what is for him a fairly weak field to beat. Top billing. #6 Drain Daddy raced very well last week considering he was trapped in behind two fading duelers in early stretch. He is in top form now and is on our pick 4 tickets, #9 Wild Dragon just can’t seem to get off the schneid this year, but keeps knocking hard and is a great exotics horse.
Race 8: Trot, purse $16,000 (EX, P3, SU, TR, Z4) NW $8,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $20,000 LAST 10 STARTS
This is an extremely tough dash to figure that will likely go to a winner that is the beneficiary of a perfect trip. That being said, there appears to be an abundance of front-end speed which may set it up for #9 Bullet who figures to be the deepest and quickest closer. #6 Julians Caesar held on reasonably well in EW Fisher’s 152.2 season’s best mile. Trip will improve. #4 Vacation Day showed a much-improved effort last time and should be on your pick 4 tickets.
Race 9: Pace, purse $75,000 SOMEBEACHSOMEWHERE - 3 YEAR OLDS
All eyes will be on #2 Odds On Equuleus, widely considered the 2nd-best 2YO pacer last season who makes his 2013 debut. We are looking for a minor upset, however, as #1 Fool Me Once couldn’t be sharper or more confident at the moment. #6 Sunshine Beach sizzled off a 150.2 3YO debut mile and merits inclusion on pick 4 tickets. He could be a totally different and improved racehorse now.
Race 10: Pace, purse $34,000 PREFERRED
#6 OK Commander comes off an impressive win vs. subsequent Molson Pace winner State Treasurer. Looks like a solid single in this late pick 4 with 3 sub 1:50 miles in a row on his card. If anyone is going to topple him it will likely be the classy veteran #7 Bigtime Ball making his 9YO debut. He loves Mohawk. #8 Classic Rock ‘N Roll has faced better down south but comes into this off a 3-week break. Tough call.
Race 11: Pace, purse $12,500 (EX, LD, SU, TR) NW $5,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $10,000 LAST 10 STARTS
#6 AS Duharas was parked the mile last time and still paced in 152.0. With any kind of a reasonable trip, he dusts these. HUGE value in the pick 4 at 8/1 in the morning line. #3 Putnams Attack raced OK last week stuck behind some dead cover - also offers good value returning in 7 days. #2 Dal Reo Seelster steps into the lowest condition ranks after a strong showing in a $10K claimer last Saturday night. The class difference may not be that great in this case.
Race 12: Pace, purse $16,000 (EX, SU, TR) NW $8,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $20,000 LAST 10 STARTS
This race is a bit of a head scratcher, but, we liked the #2 Uncle Goodfellow at a big price last week and had he shook loose earlier, he’d have won. He steps up again but is razor-sharp. #9 Scottiestrikesfame is more than capable vs. this type and we expect to see a wakeup in his third 2013 start and the drop in class. #10 Reibercrombie can be erratic, but also has more than enough ability to topple these when right. Will be a good price from out there.
DRIVE ON BETS:
The “Drive On Bets” section had a HUGE night at Mohawk last Saturday night, showing almost $1,800 in profits, cashing a $1,902 pick 4 ticket.
Starting Balance: $2,000
Current Balance: $3,595
Here are tonight’s wagers:
Race 1: $5 exacta box 267; $10 DD 267/9 = $60
Race 2: $20 exacta box 6-9 = $40
Race 3: $40 tri 2/5/34 = $80
Race 4: $1 Pick 4: 25/4/12810/1569; $1 Pick 4: 25/1345810/2/1569 = $80 $50 Win #2, $10 exacta box 2-5 = total race 4 $150
Race 6: $5 exacta 2/1810, 1810/2; $2 tri box 12810 = $78
Race 8: $1 Pick 4: 4689/126/6/236/23569=$60
Race 12: $1 Tri/Super boxes 26910 = $48
Total wagered: $516
Starting balance: $2,000
Current Balance: $3,079
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!