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"Driveon Bets" Pick 4 Tickets for Mohawk - Saturday May 25, 2012

The “Driveon Bets” segment that debuted last week hit a bit of a snag when B Lo Zero got stung by a tough first-over trip and got nailed right on the money, costing us a pick 4. That loss hasn’t dampened our spirits, however, and we like the look of the late pick 4 ($50K guaranteed pool) at Mohawk tonight.)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We are going to line up two tickets, one with a $1 base, the other a 40-cent base (using the 20-cent minimum wager base) . If everything goes exactly to plan, they will both cash.

Let’s look at the contenders as we’ve identified them in the handicapping process:

 

Race 9 – In the opening leg, we are going to use all 3 of the claimed horses from last week, plus a horse that was a sharp surprise winner last Sunday.

#1 Stonebridge Cowboy was claimed by the high-percentage Corey Johnson barn and many of this horse’s 8 wins last season came at Mohawk. He may be ready to strike second out over the Campbellville oval.

#4 Lost In Panslation was used as a Pick 4 single here last week and didn’t fire at all, even with the late pace weakening considerably. We’re thinking he could rebound with a better effort in the new barn.

 

#6 St Lads He Man debuts for the powerful Tony ‘O Sullivan Stable and has extreme high speed early in his miles. He may blast to the top and exhaust these foes early. A must-use.

 

#8 Balanchine was a handy winner on Family Fun Night only 6 nights ago for the potent Montini/Oliver combo. This field looks tougher but this horse has also paced faster against better than these in the past. We can’t leave him off the ticket.

 

Race 10 – We like two horses in here mainly – the first is a gelding  that has been on a real tear, the other a mare who is better than her last two trips show.

#7 BKs Felon has ripped off three very impressive wins in a row and if you watch the replay of the most recent win on 5/19 you’ll see that it appears he is just toying with the opposition, waiting, waiting and waiting some more before blasting from 7th to first in the blink of an eye in the stretch to win off easily. He looks strong here, but faces a lot tougher.

#2 Bax Of Life won her first two starts of 2012 then encountered a horrendous trip on 5/12 parked 3-wide to the top in a 55.0 half (scorching for trotters in this class), then found herself in too tough last time against 2012 O Brien Award champ Frenchfrysnvinegar who rattled off a 152.2 mile in the Miss Versatility. This mare is the main danger to the Felon.  Both will be used in equal strength on the main ticket.

The next three contenders will be added on the smaller ticket

#3 Guiltywithanexcuse sizzled home in 26.3 last week with the driver switch from trainer Henriksen to Christoforou. He’s won 5 times in 12 starts this season and rates an upset chance.

#8 Zukav is also a 5-time winner and has gone some big trips the past couple of months, but he certainly doesn’t stand out from the top 2 and offers less value as the morning line choice.

#9 Meadowview Arty won in this class in his penultimate start at Woodbine in the race in which Bax Of Life was cooked in the first half. He maintained his sharpness last time with a 55.3 back half and 27.0 kicker but was too far back to get into contention. As a 15/1 m/l starter leaving from the 9-hole, he is worth including on the smaller ticket (because he does stand a chance and very few people will use him). Any early pace battle improves his chances.

 

Race 11- This race looks pretty tough on paper. With many of the starters showing gaps in their races, we are going to use 3 contenders that raced last week, thinking  they have a “sharpness” edge.

#3 Panjunmom comes in off a nice first-over effort where he kept grinding away but couldn’t reach the tough winner Balanchine. His 1 for 14 record this year doesn’t do justice to his true ability as he has beaten better than these many times in the past.

#4 Mach Of Ballykeel was a nice 3YO last year that showed high speed and powerful brushes on occasion. He appears to have some issues, but, in his 3rd start off the shelf for Moreau, he may fire a much-improved effort. It’s important to note that many of the top drivers are out of town at Georgian Downs for the Upper Canada Cup Final. With Jamieson, both Zerons, McDonell, McNair, Oulette etc. gone to Georgian after race 3, Filion could have a huge night.

#8 Pontiac Luck comes into this race having chased last year’s Breeders Crown 3Y0 Pace champion Betterthancheddar home in the second-fastest mile in Georgian Downs history (149.1). 3 races back he went down the road for a 150.3 victory and subsequently had a non-threatening 8th from an outer post. Trainer Umphrey brings this one in sharp and he’s good value as the 4th choice in the morning line.

 

Race 12 – There doesn’t appear to be many contenders in this bottom level conditioned dash. We’ll use 3 of them for varying reasons:

#3 Dimes Dividends is a 36-time winner that has beaten better and looks to be rounding into form again. We’re  not thrilled that he missed a week, but he definitely fits with this group and must be included on Pick 4 tickets.

#5 Trend Spotter is a one-time winner this year that switches to the Moreau barn tonight. On that reason alone, he must be included on all tickets – especially in a weak field like this one. 

#7 Daddy Mac has seen better days, but this 34-time winner enters this race off a nice speed-tightener where he cut a 55.0 half and backed up slightly in the lane to finish 4th beaten 2 lengths. If this were last year at this time he’d beat this field by half the stretch.

Here’s how the tickets will be constructed.

Main ticket - $1 Pick 4 – 1468/27/348/357 - $72 (Note: A 20-cent option on this ticket costs $14.40) -$72

Backup ticket – 40-cent pick 4 – 1468/23789/348/357 - $72

 

Total Wagered - $144

Starting Bankroll - $1,000

Current Bankroll - $715

 

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Older Comments about "Driveon Bets" Pick 4 Tickets for Mohawk - Saturday May 25, 2012...

What if you disdain favorites? What if the morningline maker is terrible (most are)? I prefer to look for horses that are ranked low in the m/l relative to their actual chances of winning the race. In the case of this pick 3, Trend Spotter, #5 in the 12th, was moving to a barn that wins regularly with barn changes. The Pick 3 with him was paying $700 more than the m/l favorite, yet Trend Spotter opened @ 7/5, took major support throughout and went off as a strong second choice at 5/2. The $1 parlay paid about $240, the Pick 3 - $1042. TREMENDOUS value.
smartest pick 4 strategy I even saw had a way of favorite redundancy so that if all the short prices hit, you would have it 8 to 10 times in that scheme...brilliant work from my mentor on the West coast.
Second week in a rwo we lose the Pick 4 by a nose...this one paid $16K. The only good news is on-track live we wagered on the final pick 3 using 27/348/357 and when Bax of Life won paying a remarkable $34 (also bet to win) followed by Mach of Ballykeel and Trend Spotter, we nailed the late pick 3 to the tune of $1042! [Driveon logged in as "gocashbaby-Facebook login]

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Meet Garnet Barnsdale

 

I am an Honours Graduate from Humber College School of Journalism and a lifelong race fan and handicapper who has been watching and wagering on harness racing for more than 30 years. I was a staff writer for The Standardbred magazine in the late '80s. I will attempt to provide both beginners and veterans with valuable information and handicapping tips and advice on the top events from all major harness circuits.