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HRN Original Blog:
Drive On

DriveOn Bets Mohawk Racetrack - wagers for Saturday, June 2, 2012

DriveOn Bets for Saturday June 2/12

Early Pick 4:

Race 4 The Somebeachsomewhere Stakes (1st division) - This looks to be a showdown between  #2 THINKING OUT LOUD and #7 STATE TREASURER. Not so fast, though. There are others in here that figure prominently and with rain still in the forecast a sloppy track could toss a bit of a wrench into things. We are using 4 horses in here and here is the breakdown:

#2 THINKING OUT LOUD has only lost once in his career and has been a perfect 3-3 for McIntosh/Waples in 2012, including his most recent jog in which he came home in an impressive 53.4. He had a nice win over the good 2YO Speed Again in last year’s Dream Maker Final and figures prominently here.

#3 ESCAPE THE NEWS comes into this dash off an impressive 153.4 score on a good track at Yonkers in a NYSS race. The Holloway trainee looks to be peaking at the right time and has a big shot to upset the chalks here as probably the 3rd or 4th betting choice.

#6 SECRETSOTHERKNIGHT comes into this race with possibly the most impressive recent start even though he  finished 4th in the Upper Canada Cup Final at Georgian. He suffered a disastrous trip from the far-outside 9-hole in that event yet after parking most of the  mile he still managed to close from dead last at the half to 4th beaten 5 lengths. He will get a much better trip here and also has a big shot to upset the two betting choices.

#7 STATE TREASURER comes into this off two sub-151 wins, the most recent an impressive 5-length tally finished off with a 26.3 kicker. Dr. Ian Moore has produced rapid improvement from this Real Desire pupil and he figures to be right there with these, likely coming from first or second over.

We’re using 2,3,6,7 in equal weight here, hoping to get by with the 3 or 6

Race 5 - This is an extremely tough heat and we’re going 6-deep here looking to nail a price:

#1 CIS BUCKEYE picked up 9 lengths in the back half of his Mohawk debut and is definitely one to include @ 8/1 in the morning line having won 11 of his past 43 starts.

#2 TANGIER reversed tactics last time from the 9-hole and left quickly then pulled the pocket at ¾ and led to deep stretch only to falter and lose by 1 ¾ lengths. I would imagine he will revert to the closing style that produced a nose loss and a 28.1 last quarter 2 races back. He, too is a big threat and also  offers 8/1 morning line value.

#3 SOUTHWIND NAZARETH made two moves in his Mohawk debut and flashed 28.1 last-quarter speed to nail third. He is another 8/1 m/l risk that has a shot, especially with Little Zee in the bike.

#4 STAR PHOTO comes in off a front-stepping win for the potent Moreau/Filion combo who have been on fire at The ‘Hawk. With so many deep closers in the race, he stands a chance at stealing a soft first half and must be included on the ticket.

#5 MIKEY HANOVER, a 3YO Majestic Son colt, has been dynamite early in the year, winning 3 of 4, his only loss coming from the 10-hole off a disastrous trip. He figures prominently and will likely be one of the top betting choices.

#10 ALLY OOP comes in for trainer Durand whose trotters have been on FIRE the past week. He brought  Whiskey Tax back for his 2012 debut  - a winning effort at 17/1 then took the Preferred Trot Monday night with Tall Cotton who uncorked a 151.4 mile, 2nd fastest in Canada this year. Enough said. ALLY OOP is on our tickets.

Race 6 - We’re going 5 - deep in this competitive dash, then following up with a duo in race 7:

#2 HARE CRAFT takes a class dive to the lowest condition level and although he isn’t in the greatest form, he should be right there on the wire with these. Still, as the morning line favorite, he seems pretty risky and we’ll use others hoping to topple him and inject some value into the payoff.

#4 JACKETS REQUIRED  finished with good energy in his last but found himself too far back as the top two opened a big gap on the field in the 3rd quarter. He could get a much better trip tonight and produce an upset.

#5 ALL TIGER N has seen better days, but, when you finish 9th in a non-winners of class and still pace in 51 and change, you know you  were in tough. He, too, could get a much better trip tonight and be right there on the money.

#8 DADDY MAC was likely best in his most recent start but had to fend off a stubborn first-over  challenger that was parked the mile before almost rebuffing the pocket-sitting Trend Spotter who was racing out of the Moreau barn for the first time. That impressive effort sets him up nicely for a big race tonight.

#10 HIGH DEF Z TAM continues to power home from the back and any speed duel in the 2nd or 3rd quarters greatly improves his chances of passing them all. Look for him late on the far outside.

Race 7 - We are only using two in here and betting the 20-cent option, making it a $48 investment

#2 TWIN B WARRIOR offers great value as a 7/1 morning line choice. Filion, nicknamed “The Go-To Guy” by my son Nicholas, is back for the steer and last time he drove this gelding 3 back the pair produced a 150.4 win. He has sneaky good form in his last two, including a 53.4 back-half second to Kyle Major in his penultimate start followed by a too-late 6th to Audrey’s Dream in which the Warrior came home in 53.4. His missing a week’s action is the only factor that prevented me from singling him.

#9 MACHAL JACKSON drops out of the $300,000 Final of The Molson Pace into this n/w of $14,000 in their last 5 starts and it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that there are no Foiled Again’s in here. Expect a BIG speed try.

To recap: Here’s what our 20-cent ticket looks like

Race 4:  2 3 6 7

Race 5:  1 2 3 4 5 10

Race 6:  2 4 5 8 10

Race 7:  2 9

Total cost of ticket $48

There is one other horse on this card that REALLY impressed me last week and his stepping up in class to face a very hot horse ensures that our choice will be good value. He is ODDYSEUS BLUE CHIP  in the Preferred 2 pace in race 12. Oddyseus used a 26.1 first over assault to beat the consistent Lonesome Attack last week in 150 flat and his speed to the 3/4 in 121.3 may be what it takes to wear down the streaking CLIC K and upend him at a good price. We’re going to bet $50 win on  #1 ODDYSEUS BLUE CHIP bringing the total “DriveOn Bets” for the card to $98.

Original balance: $1,000
Starting balance (today):  $715

Current Balance: $617

 

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Meet Garnet Barnsdale

 

I am an Honours Graduate from Humber College School of Journalism and a lifelong race fan and handicapper who has been watching and wagering on harness racing for more than 30 years. I was a staff writer for The Standardbred magazine in the late '80s. I will attempt to provide both beginners and veterans with valuable information and handicapping tips and advice on the top events from all major harness circuits.