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HRN Original Blog:
Bada Bing Inc.

The End of Zen - 2012 Kentucky Derby

By Tony Bada Bing 
 
So we’ve come to the end of the line in the infrequent series of Kentucky Derby Zen. We’ve practiced deep breathing, talked about the power of what we don’t know and how our beliefs can get us to see anything we truly want, like say a Kentucky Derby win by Trinniberg. We all dismissed Mine That Bird –who cared nothing for our opinions. 
 
If you think hard and reflect on your Derby choices as of this moment, I would advise not to make any choices…yet. The post-position draw matters. The weather matters. If you choose to love anyone of the 20 contenders Kentucky Derby too much, right now, you’ve prematurely chosen and are bound to that choice, even if it means laying your money down on a front-runner breaking from post 1. Luck, the universe and whatever deus ex machina you believe in will have to bail you out, if the draw proves poorly. 
 
At this stage of the game, a slow sip of a rich, fragrant liquor, a hit from a pipe of your choosing or even a hard burn at power yoga class may help you reach your final winning wager. This along with something you should definitely do – eliminate the losers. These are horses you believe have little to no shot at winning regardless of where they start, how well they’ve trained or who is or is not riding on their backs. It is just as important to narrow down your choices of who will win – the ying and yang, if you will. 
 
Elimination means someone has to be in contention and I’ve provided this as well. Notice my little lotus leaves that there is no winner chosen just the prospect of the several left. I will revise, reflect and mediate on those I still believe have a chance to finish first through fourth. For the definite, please give me until after the draw to make my choices. For you should to… 
 
First the weak to be separated from the strong: 
 
Liaison – if you can’t win; you can’t win 
 
Trinniberg – just because you can, doesn’t mean you should 
 
Sabercat – where you win is just as important as who you beat  
 
Rousing Sermon – slow finishes against weak foes translate into continued losses 
 
Dullahan – the surface you win on matters, greener pastures await 
 
I’ll Have Another – gluttony is a deadly sin and so is betting on Doug O’Neil shipping this far east 
 
Daddy Long Legs – please see Dullahan and Sabercat 
 
Done Talking – he will be finished before they reach the far turn 
 
El Pardino – time doesn’t matter unless you’re trying to be the quickest to finish, which he is not 
 
Went the Day Well – the attempt at human connections trying to repeat Derby win, means nothing to the horse 
 
Optimizer – final entry usually doesn’t have a say in outcome 
 
A few that still confuse: 
 
Take Charge Indy – the mind says the horse has no chance; the heart says the jockey always has a change on Derby Day 
 
Alpha – stirred by his latest efforts and worried about his minor setback 
 
Creative Cause – indecision, married with a lack of vision equals blinkers on, maybe 
 
Prospective – something most need, something most lack and shouldn’t count on 
 
The best of the rest surely: 
 
Bodemeister –have the feeling this is Baffert’s Derby, that and three consecutive triple-digit speed figures 
 
Gemologist – winning breeds winning, especially if you’ve never lost 
 
Union Rags – lots of love received, bound to give some back 
 
Hansen – a mistake to dismiss and will give you plenty to cheer for at least 90% of the way 
 
Daddy Nose Best – you may dismiss at your own risk 
 
For those that came along thank you, for those that didn’t you never heard me. 

 

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Older Comments about The End of Zen - 2012 Kentucky Derby...

Union rags is likely to get into traffic trouble, Hansen will get into a speed duel with Bodemeister and Trinniberg. Hansen is known to act up and doesnt seem to relax till the back stretch. Gemologist has the best possible chance to win as he takes well to the churchill surface and is bred to go the distance. Daddy nose best? Could possible be in the top 5. Im still keeping TCI, IHA, and Gemologist in my Trifecta box.
you can't leave out went the day well he's go tiznow, mr. prospector, secreteriat, and tom fool that's an awesome pedigree and if u r fool enough to leave him out it might just cost u the derby as for hansen i think the distance will be 2 much, Daddy Nose Best will lose because he's never raced at churchill downs, Gemologist looks like he'll be getting his first win b/c the only one he's really raced against was alpha and according to this article u should leave him out, Union Rags is coming off a third and finally we get to Bodemeister, this horse can't win b/c his pedigree is alright not great and never raced at churchill down.
  • tony bada bing · Allow me to apply your logic to Went the Day Well - he hasn't won at Churchill and he has definitely beaten no one. We can rationalize our own beliefs in any way we want. I was originally was on the fence with Went the Day Well, but now that your comments have forced to relook at him, I now feel more comfortable leaving him off my tickets... · 938 days ago
Storm cat, Storm Bird, Mr Prospector, Najinsky, Danzig.. Yes, Yes, it is Daddy Nose Best!@
OH, NO, Sabercat, say it isn't so! I am afraid it might be. So many good horses and so few roses to win! It is a toss up! (Daddy Nost Best and Hansen!)
I worry about Bodemeister and Hansen's chances due to the "just because you can doesn't mean you should" entry. Time will tell. As for Dullahan, you have to like the bottom half of his pedigree on account of Mine That Bird. Even the Score ran on both dirt and turf, so I wouldn't write off Dullahan on the dirt just yet. Even the Score's best dirt races came later in his career.
Desormeaux says Dullahan is good to go on dirt

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Tony Bada Bing began his lifelong quest of finding winners more than 35 years ago as a fifth grade student. This is when his grandfather first took him to the many Off Track Betting facilities sprinkled throughout Long Island, NY. While many kids his age were clamoring to hit the beach or an amusement park during summer vacation, Bada Bing was spending it in stuffy, smoked-filled rooms filled with retirees and reprobates listening to Marshall Cassidy on tape delay calling Saratoga.

This passion was further lit by his father, who took Bada Bing to East Boston's Suffolk Downs, only after Bada Bing learned to read the Racing Form. For most of his young adult life a summer rotation of NY OTB, Suffolk, and the now shuddered Rockingham Park in Salem, NH filled his betting days. 

Notable winners along the way: Willow Hour's and Runaway Groom's Travers wins as well as Derby winners Grindstone, Thunder Gulch (which he called in print the day before) and Super Saver. His latest quest is to hit the Kentucky Derby superfecta.

Bada Bing plays tournaments at Derby Wars, bets through several account wagering sites and has blogged about Thoroughbred racing for the past four years. He prefers the bigger meets of NYRA and California as well as seasonal meets of Gulfstream, Churchill and Oaklawn. He likes vertical, multirace wagers like Pick 4s.

He has produced several Horse Racing Nation videos, in addition to blogging. He can be found at Twitter @tonycbadabing. While away from the track Bada Bing enjoys time with his wife, who tolerates and supports his passion, and his two children.