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On the Fly

By Tony Bada Bing 

 

There’s only some much time in a day, so you find me handicapping on the fly – quick, down and dirty. Sometimes I believe we should all give speed handicapping a try. Think about it, there’s a train of thought that says the more time you work on something the better you’ll do. Except this isn’t always the case. Take your time shoveling the snow and you freeze your buff off. Swim too slowly, and you’ll sink. Get up extra early for work and you might find yourself rushing at the last minute because your mind began to wonder along and all of a sudden you’re late…. 

 

Aqueduct Race 3, NY-Breds Allowance, 1 mile 

 

Live for Today has every right to improve in his first start back as a three-year-old. He’s also won at this distance and is stakes placed with state-bred company. Despite some faster speed figures, I don’t see 7-5 on The Prize Fighter rewarding the risk on a horse yet to find his level.  

 

Aqueduct Race 4, NY-Breds Optional Claiming Allowance, 1 1/8 miles 

 

Class, distance and just the workmanlike way Stud Muffin has answered the bell for last seven years is worth your $2 bet, mythical or otherwise. An alternative other than chalk is Idle American who finished well in the slop last time out.  

 

Aqueduct Race 5, Maiden Special Weight, 6 furlongs 

 

Time to go against fact and figures – that is the way big prices emerge isn’t it? Jimmy Jenkins is not known for rolling out first-time starters, like 0-for-25 times in the last two years. But McCourty is out of First Samurai, a decent debut sire connecting at 12% last year. In addition A McCourty is working well; firing a bullet in his last work and consistently working fast. In other words, Jenkins just may have a horse so good, he’ll win in spite of the training he’s getting. 

 

Gulfstream Park Race 2, Claiming, 5 furlongs on the turf 

 

Some handicappers shy away from these spring turf affairs and once I overheard someone mutter he couldn’t pick the winner of such races, even on replay. Looking for a price, 5 furlongs on the turf is a good place to look. And how about a sprint race void of speed? If Too Clever By Half’s jockey Javier Castellano plays it too cute and doesn’t go after the lead than this race is up for grabs. Ms Diller who is racing right were she belongs in the claiming ranks has a distinct chance of stealing this race up front. 5-1 is worth finding out. 

 

Gulfstream Park Race 4, Optional Claiming Allowance, 7 furlongs  

 

Do you know the difference between 6 and 7 furlongs? An eighth of mile or 12 seconds or longer than all, but one of these entrants have tried on the dirt. Sure the chalk may take it in a cake walk, but Miss Quisqueya might also blow up in the last part of the race. Brown Eyed Nance is the longest shot in here and gets the nod from me.  

 

Gulfstream Park Race 8, Maiden Special Weight, 1 mile 

 

Starting outside in one of Gulfstream’s one-mile turf affairs is tricky, the turn comes upon all horses within a few strides. Claire’s Song is parked out at the eight-post and will have to hustle to get to the front. Luckily, she’s one of the only fillies on paper with the turn of foot to do so. It’s here first try on the green, but she has some bloodlines for it and if, by chance the race comes off the turf, she still has a big shot. 

 

Derby Wars Recap time… 

 

 

Saturday:  $5,700 Big Game ($50 buy-in with 111 players) – (12 races using GP, OP, SA tracks) 

Winner: Travis Reese A.K.A Tsreese ($106.80) 

Travis Reese bested a field of 111 by hitting four races out of the twelve in last Saturday’s big game.  Mr. Reese’s largest win on the day came on the back of Arch Support in the 9th at GP which paid $50 for the win-place tourney. Travis had three descent payouts on the day at $50, $29.80, and $24 which were the building blocks for racking up $106.80. Mr. Reese took home $1500 for his first place troubles!!! 

 

Recap complied and written by Josh Chicorelli  

 

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Older Comments about On the Fly...

I agree, to much info and it all relates to value at about 2 mins or less til post. It is not a math test, or is it?
"what part" should read "one part" a little to quick that time....
My point is this - sometimes it is better to make handicapping decisions quickly...more homework doesn't necessarily mean a better result...I'd suggest reading How We Decide, a book about the brain and how it uses emotions, rationality, sometimes how we rely on what part of the brain over the other....
recall hearing Beyer himself say we have to see how a horse runs fast rather than how fast they run
handicappers will look at the horse before the race ,the warm up ect..
Speed handicapping has become so watered down as to no longer be parimutually attractive

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Tony Bada Bing began his lifelong quest of finding winners more than 35 years ago as a fifth grade student. This is when his grandfather first took him to the many Off Track Betting facilities sprinkled throughout Long Island, NY. While many kids his age were clamoring to hit the beach or an amusement park during summer vacation, Bada Bing was spending it in stuffy, smoked-filled rooms filled with retirees and reprobates listening to Marshall Cassidy on tape delay calling Saratoga.

This passion was further lit by his father, who took Bada Bing to East Boston's Suffolk Downs, only after Bada Bing learned to read the Racing Form. For most of his young adult life a summer rotation of NY OTB, Suffolk, and the now shuddered Rockingham Park in Salem, NH filled his betting days. 

Notable winners along the way: Willow Hour's and Runaway Groom's Travers wins as well as Derby winners Grindstone, Thunder Gulch (which he called in print the day before) and Super Saver. His latest quest is to hit the Kentucky Derby superfecta.

Bada Bing plays tournaments at Derby Wars, bets through several account wagering sites and has blogged about Thoroughbred racing for the past four years. He prefers the bigger meets of NYRA and California as well as seasonal meets of Gulfstream, Churchill and Oaklawn. He likes vertical, multirace wagers like Pick 4s.

He has produced several Horse Racing Nation videos, in addition to blogging. He can be found at Twitter @tonycbadabing. While away from the track Bada Bing enjoys time with his wife, who tolerates and supports his passion, and his two children.