For the handicapper compelled to analyze as many as twenty
precocious 3-year-olds running faster and farther than they've ever run before,
successful Kentucky Derby handicapping comes down to an understanding of five
fundamental criteria: Breeding, Running Style, Preparation, Connections, Race
Day Factors.
With the world's most famous horse race set for its annual
spin around the Churchill Downs oval in Louisville for May 5th this
year, let's take a closer look at that quintet of core elements:
-BREEDING: A horse must have the inherent genetic ability to
get the mile and a quarter distance of the Kentucky Derby. Success in prep
races at a mile and a eighth is not enough to predict how a 3 year old will
perform at the classic mile and a quarter. Analysis of the horse's pedigree is
imperative in predicting this ability. Dosage analysis may have its critics,
but it’s hard to deny its success. It has proven to be the best tool in
evaluating this factor. A horse that qualifies will have a dosage index equal
to or less than 4.00. NOTE: In recent times, this cut-off point seems to be
rising due to the influence of speed in American racing, so don't be too rigid
in this criteria.
-RUNNING STYLE: Interpreting how a race sets up
"pace-wise" is a very important factor in determining the eventual
winner. We must examine the running style of each of the hopefuls and come up
with a likely pace scenario. With few exceptions, we can almost be assured of a
fast early pace. Many of the entrant’s who have the misfortune of drawing an
outside post, have to be gunned from the gate to ensure good position entering
the first turn.
-PREPARATION/PERFORMANCE: The proper breeding and a
preferred running style are not enough to ensure success in this most important
race. The eventual winner will need a rock hard foundation, and must have been
carefully prepared for a peak performance on this day. History has proven that
the eventual winner has usually raced in two or three graded stakes since
February, one being at least a mile and a eighth. Winning these races isn't
necessary, but running well in the most recent preps is usually a requirement.
-CONNECTIONS: More often than not, the winning horse will
have a top notch trainer and jockey. The winning trainer knows how to prepare
his candidate to peak on the first Saturday in May. Probably, he has had horses
entered in this race in the past and knows from experience how to handle the
intense pressure of being in this situation. The jockey is an equally important
member of the winning team. It takes talent, experience and coolness in a field
of 20 horses. The rider will have to make split-second decisions which will
decide the fate of his/her horse during the running of the race. It's not by
accident that a select group of top jockeys seem to rise to the occasion year
after year.
-RACE DAY FACTORS: Included in this category are
post-position, weather, track surface condition and probably the most important
factor of them all, racing luck. Without racing luck, the other factors become
moot.
***The post time favorite is usually determined by media
hype based on the most recent performances in Derby prep races, all of which
are run at a distance a furlong shorter than the Derby's distance of a mile and
a quarter. This additional eighth of a mile is what separates the contenders
from the pretenders. The race is won or lost in this last furlong. Handicappers
that can predict which entrants are prepared to endure and excel in this last
furlong are the one's successful in cashing in on the winner.