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HRN Original Blog:
Toasting with Andrew Champagne

 

Older Comments...

So, Frammento, Keen Ice, Tale of Verve, Frosted, and Upstart are lining up to take yet another beating from Pharoah? Texas Red is the only one with a shot at challenging him tomorrow. I'm calling Texas Red for the win.
Here's how the race will play out....... AP will go out quickly to the lead and then throttle back to set slow or moderate fractions. Nobody else has the speed or willingness to challenge him early. Smart Transition will be a couple of lengths back in 2nd or 3rd place. At about the 7F point, Frosted and Texas Red will make a move in tandem from the middle/back of the field, pass a tiring Smart Transition at the head of the stretch and close to within a length of AP. VE will look back and see the challenge, tap AP, and AP will accelerate away to a 23 second final 2F and win by 5 lengths; leaving Frosted and TR to battle each other for second. Frosted will outlast TR and take 2nd by a half-length. A couple of lengths further back, a tiring Smart Transition will take 4th, barely holding off a closing Keen Ice. The others will be far back. Final time will be in the range of 2:01 to 2:02.
I like Tale of Verve and Frammento. Interesting, catchy names. Pretty too. I wish they would start running in grade 2s and 3s though.
Taking Unbridled Forever for P-S. It's a lock every time.
Mr.Z
Who named this horse?
It appears as though Staythirsty just has his heart set on American Pharoah getting beat.
Interesting to read and hear about everyone's thoughts on how this race will play out. Personally, I think AP will win, and would be surprised if he doesn't keep that amazing form he had in the Haskell. If he does have that form, no one is going to be "closing" on AP. Only in the Derby did a horse make up real ground against him and that was Frosted. In the Haskell saying that Keen ice actually closed on AP and gained ground is purely the result of Victor stepping on the brakes. If anyone thinks I'm missing another example, definitely let me know. Looking forward to tomorrow. This is horse racing... anything can happen. No one is 'wrong' yet.
The final half mile of the Travers Stakes preview: Three quarters up now in 1 11 and 3, American Pharoah is still trapped at the rail , Mid Ocean is trying to keep up, and now Victor lets American Pharoah go! Around the far turn, it is American Pharoah in front . Mid Ocean is second . Joel Rosario brings out the whip on Frosted , Texas Red is in behind trying to find away behind Smart Transition , Texas Red to the outside . American Pharoah cuts the corner, Upstart down toward the inside, AND THEY'RE INTO THE STRETCH. And it's AMERICAN PHAROAH ! American Pharoah is in front by two! Frosted is second . Upstart is digging down deep for more , Mid Ocean's had enough . Into the final furlong, it is American Pharoah ! FROSTED runs at him! He's within one! And here comes KEEN ICE , HE'S FLYING WITHIN 3 and closing like a shot ! They're coming to the finish AMERICAN PHAROAH AND FROSTED take it to the end , here comes Keen Ice, here's the line , and FROSTED HAS WON THE TRAVERS ! ! ! ! ! ! Keen Ice and American Pharoah were a neck back ! And it was at least 7 or 8 back to Upstart with Mid Ocean and Smart Transition just behind him. Final time: 2:00.2
No human being is perfect. No animal is perfect. Any given day an athlete or team can be beaten. Same goes with a racehorse. Yes American Pharoah has accomplished very much, and has never been pressed to. But I can not help seeing in my mind, Texas Red nosing out American Pharoah making this the best finish in history. It will shadow the Derby win, Preakness, and Belmont for sure. Good luck to all and enjoy!
The official full race preview continues : Further back , is Frammento already 10 lengths off the lead, then King of New York to the outside of Keen Ice , and Tale of Verve is already about 20 lengths back! So down the backstretch they go, and Mid Ocean is in front , he's got American Pharoah pinned down at the rail in second . American Pharoah is going to try to get through that small opening on the rail. The pace has moderated , half up in 47 and 3. Then Smart Transition to the outside with Frosted , now that pair is within 2 1/2. Then Upstart down toward the fence , with Texas Red and Keen Ice . Frammento is in behind horses and needs somewhere to go, King of New York is still a dozen lengths behind, and Tale of Verve is way back there, he's still 5 lengths in dead last. Mid Ocean is in front and American Pharoah takes the lead! American Pharoah is in front as he approaches the half mile pole! Stay tuned for the dramatic final half mile of the Travers ! !!
Here it is. The official race preview of the 2015 Travers Stakes . Upstart will participate in this race preview . Enjoy !!!! They're off in the Travers Stakes ! American Pharoah goes straight to the lead and Upstart had to check hard at the start . American Pharoah is in front . Here comes Mid Ocean on the outside to challenge him and these 2, the triple crown winner and the maiden head for the clubhouse turn . Smart Transition away 4 off the front . Then the trio of Upstart , Texas Red between horses and Frosted to the outside . They got a quarter in 23 flat, it's fast, and like the derby American Pharoah will let Mid Ocean take over. Stay tuned for more .
OK, let me come out for Tale of Verve to squeeeeeze in past TR and ruin everybody's Super... e.g. my SF (boxed and bowed), is Frosted, AP, KI, Tale of Verve!
QUOTE: "If your (shouldn't this be the more adult : you're) betting the race, your best play is the superfecta, as the pools will be huge!" In reality when 98.997% of the betting public hooks up the big favorite with the rest of the field, IT STILL WILL PAY NEXT TO NOTHING no matter the SIZE of said pool. Only way to make money here is if the favorite runs third, OR oddly, OUT altogether. Unless he breaks down or is pulled up, that is not likely to happen.
  • Anthony Lopez via Disqus · Best thing to bet on Travers day would be the all stakes pick-4's! Single Pharoah and hope for a longshot in the others!!! · 2 days ago
  • cugel the clever · In a race like this, the best saver bet is to put a $1 or $2 exacta box on the next two likeliest horses (IMHO Texas Red and Frosted). · 4 hours ago
nah its a cake walk they have zero chance to beat this guy! he looks better then ever and his last work sealed the deal.
When one understands the practical application of the numbers from certainty (1) to impossible (0), it is inherent to understand that these extremes are only terminal boundaries, NOT practical points of the probability spectrum.....No horse in any race EVER had zero chance to do anything.
Swiss Affair and Later My Love
The great thing about horse racing is that all arguments are settled at the cash window.
Congratulations on 8 in a row with American Pharoah. Saratoga might be his biggest challenge to date, and if not Beholder is right around the corner. Lets hook these two up and make some extraordinary horses when the racing is over in October!!! ( I'll call SHOTGUN...on first colt) LOL.
Donn Handicap winner Constitution works 5 Furlongs in 1.00.58, after the work, Todd Pletcher tells DRF's David Grening that Constitution will most likely return in the Lukas Classic at Chruchill Downs in mid September, according to DRF

Meet Andrew Champagne

 

A native of upstate New York and a graduate of Ithaca College, Andrew Champagne fell in love with horse racing at a very early age on summer trips to Saratoga. His turf writing credits include time spent as a sportswriter, weekly columnist, and handicapper at The Saratogian, a summer working for The Saratoga Special, and "field research" at OTB facilities in Saratoga Springs and his hometown of Kingston. He also spent two years in the athletic communications office at Siena College, and interned with NBC Olympics at the 2010 Winter Games in Vancouver.


Andrew moved to Pasadena, Calif., in October of 2013, and now serves as an Associate Producer in HRTV's Digital Media department and Horse Racing Nation's Southern California writer. Follow him on Twitter at @AndrewChampagne, and email him at andrewdchampagne@gmail.com.

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