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  • Lady Shipman breezes home much the best in Belmont's License Fee.Posted 2 hours ago
  • Ben's Cat sprints home late to win his 10yo seasonal debut in thrilling fashion.Posted 5 hours ago
  • Minding shows her class, easily winning the 1000 Guineas.Posted 7 hours ago
  • Uncle Lino digs in to win the inaugural California Chrome Stakes.Posted 23 hours ago
  • A Lot holds off favored Green Mask by a whisker to win the Elusive Quality.Posted 1 day ago
  • Galileo Gold, under Frankie Dettori, rolls in the 2000 Guineas.Posted 1 day ago
  • Olorda takes them all the way in the Bewitch Stakes on closing day at Keeneland.Posted 2 days ago
  • Nyquist will get in his final Kentucky Derby workout Friday afternoon at Keeneland.Posted 5 days ago
  • Time and Motion wins the Memories of Silver for Jimmy Toner.Posted 7 days ago
  • Finest City sets new track record in Great Lady M.Posted 7 days ago

HRN Original Blog:
Toasting with Andrew Champagne

 

Older Comments...

Scott You made me a fan. I too Handicap using blood lines. I also pay attention to Date of Birth of a three year old. Two year olds run on stamina and inexperience, (Change Leads etc) until they mature, I also have been a fan of the Fappiano line that in last year produced American Pharoah. This year there are 12 Fappiano lines in the 20 hoses listed for the Derby. Outlook has the same Fappiano line as American Pharoah (with Empire Maker). I have picked these (Fappiano) horses in the prep races, and I have had a good year so far. I look at stats but in this case (The Derby) all the horses but one has run one race at a 1 1/8. You cannot come up with a good analysis. As I wrote above there are two year olds bumping and unable to go two turns, which makes the Derby with 20 young hoses a challenge to handicap. Gun Runner has a Fappiano line in both his sire and dam side. I like Gun Runner, Shagaf and Danzing Candy. Go Fapp
I'm with you BeastBob.
Ben win in return at Laurel. The Cat's the Man.
I found video of Exaggerator's 4/30/16 (yesterday) work at Keelerman's site. Kent D. commented that the track was "loose", but thought the colt handled it all right. So, as an FYI to Jb, Jay, Mark, Tammy, astiar, et al, I'll link it. :) http://www.theturfboard.com/exaggerator-breezes-at-churchill-in-final-derby-workout/
Mohaymen Creator Destin Lani
Minding pretty much won the 1000 Guineas at her own leisure, and she may turn out to be even more impressive over the Oaks trip of 12f than she has been to date at a mile, IMO.
Bill Timeform figures and Beyer figures are on a different scale. Beyer figures usually run 10 to 12 points lower than Timeform figures--sometimes more. And although they are reasonably highly correlated, there are clearly significant differences between them. Nevertheless, translating Secretariat's 139 into a Timeform equivalent has Secretariat at a minimum of 2 to 4 points higher than Frankel. I have seen Frankel's very best race so many times I can't even count the number, and the same with Secretariat's Belmont Stakes. The fact is I have seen races as impressive as Frankel's best (Dr. Fager's World record mile was at least as good), but Secretariat's 2:24 by 31 lengths is what statisticians call an outlier. A point that's too far off on a scattergram of data. Nothing Frankel did is too far off any scattergram. Impressive, yes. Very impressive, yes. Extremely impressive, yes. Freakish, no. So I guess my answer is whatever number you give Frankel for his best race, it has to be lower than the number you give for Secretariat's Belmont. Timeform is saying that Brigadier Gerard's best race is as good as Secretariat's Belmont, and that Sea Bird's best race (and no one holds Sea Bird in higher regard than I do) is one point better. Look, we're all grown men here, and we know that's not true. We know that both Brigadier Gerard and Sea Bird each on his very best day would have been crushed by Secretariat the day he ran his Belmont. We both know that neither Sea Bird's Epsom Derby nor his Arc de Triomphe was even remotely in the same league as Secretariat's Belmont. So here's what I would do. Put Frankel at either 146 or 147, and put Secretariat at 150 or 151. And I would still think you're treating Frankel generously.
  • bill allan via Disqus · thanks, I was unable to access the ratings so don't know how they work?, what is the difference between MOW (934) and SEC (933) is it 1 lb, also what was Sea Biscuit · 19 hours ago
He's a great Horse🔶⚪️
I would like to see him in the Dirt mile for the breeders cup I think he would win
I love this horse SO MUCH! What a stretch rally!
Just an heads-up, there is a thing in handicapping call horse for courses...And base on Destin performance he may just be that kind of horse. In addition, base on Destin previous performance, handicapping observation is saying he takes awhile to get back on form after winning and coming back from long lay off...just my view base on factual observation.....
After looking at the sheets for this years Derby. Based on my interpetation of the race,the likeliest winner will come from one of the following 3 horses. Moyhaman , Mor Spirit or Exaggerator . Not that they are super fast,but just based on comparative numbers. They ran fast as 2yos and followed it up with pairing numbers as 3 year olds.
  • amino998 · Mo Tom/Mor Spirit to Mohaymen/Mor Spirit/Exaggerator ... one of these things is just like the other. ...agree with you {and Clarence, in case you've missed it :)} that Nyquist is going down... it's a 2/7 shot · 3 days ago
  • Blueyedhusky via Disqus · What about Danzing Candy? He follows the same pattern. · 6 hours ago
Mohaymen is the 3rd best grey in the Kentucky Derby, Creator and Destin will finish ahead of him, just saying! :-)
  • Shockman · Get a life · 1 day ago
  • Icelocks · hoof I agree with you that Mohaymen is not the quality horse they pump him up to be and he is probably the third best grey per your statement :) I will even go one step further, Majesto maybe a better horse than Mohymen and will finish in front of him in the Derby.... · 6 hours ago
so the horses I will be playing are Nyquist, SuddenBreakingNews, Brody's Cause, Mor Spirit, My Man Sam, and MoTom
The 2016 Kentucky Derby is touted as being loaded with many closers. Despite being a long shot, I predict that Trojan Nation will finish in front of all the closers in the Kentucky Derby. This horse seemed to be progressively getting better since his first race.
Flo is my favorite jockey he will give you ride every time i really do think he is on the right horse this year. I know its been over 20 years a horse coming from the La Derby, but look what happen last year so it another curse can broke this grindstone was the last horse to win the derby coming from La Derby. But i also like destin and outwork i was at keeneland when outwork ran his 1st race i told my dad there is the derby winner so i am gonna have these three on top in my tri's and super's
  • Icelocks · Gunn Runner, I don't think it is a curse that it has been a long time since an LA Derby horse win the Derby. What believe is, if the La horse can compete at the Derby level, then he has a good chance to win, but he must run like never before to have a good shot !! Now that you mention outwork, this horse and Mo Tom as been the most puzzling ones to me...because outwork can stay with the pace, get first run and try to steal it...then Mo Tom has so many unfortunates in both of his last races, you just can't tell what his capabilities are...therefore, base on my past observation I am force not to leave them out of my Trifecta and Super !! Good luck !! · 6 hours ago
Maurice absolutely dominated the local Hong Kong based turf milers, plus the others that had shipped in from Australia & Europe in the G1 Champions Mile at Sha Tin. I say lets have Maurice, Solow, & Tepin line up somewhere over a mile on turf in a 3-horse event to hash out who's really the top international turf miler in racing right now?
this will be the horse i will go to if its muddy track out of all the preps that had rain he ran the best one thats how i picked super saver won the superfecta one of my bigggest hits
  • Icelocks · Gunn Runner, the track should be dry and fast on Derby day base on weather forecast!! But wet or dry, I think Exaggerator should relish the going, so I will wish him the best but he must bring his game to give Nyquist a challenge! Therefore, my analysis is telling me I should use him in my exotics :) Best wishes !!! · 7 hours ago
Repeated her previous success in the Preis Des Gestuts Rottgen with a win in the Listed Grosser Preis von Rossmann today!
Won the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes by 3 lengths to Chicadoro in 2nd!

Meet Andrew Champagne

 

A native of upstate New York and a graduate of Ithaca College, Andrew Champagne fell in love with horse racing at a very early age on summer trips to Saratoga. His turf writing credits include time spent as a sportswriter, weekly columnist, and handicapper at The Saratogian, a summer working for The Saratoga Special, and "field research" at OTB facilities in Saratoga Springs and his hometown of Kingston. He also spent two years in the athletic communications office at Siena College, and interned with NBC Olympics at the 2010 Winter Games in Vancouver.


Andrew moved to Pasadena, Calif., in October of 2013, and now serves as an Associate Producer in HRTV's Digital Media department and Horse Racing Nation's Southern California writer. Follow him on Twitter at @AndrewChampagne, and email him at andrewdchampagne@gmail.com.

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