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HRN Original Blog:
TimeformUS's Blog

Top TimeformUS Speed Figures for Current Three-Year-Old Crop


As the 2014 Kentucky Derby prep races continue to heat up, here's a look at the top TimeformUS speed figures turned in by this year's three-year-old crop. 

TimeformUS PPs

A few things to keep in mind about TimeformUS speed figures:

• We combine a horse’s final-time figure, pace figures, and running style into one number, forming a state-of-the-art single-number measure of all-around performance.

• Since pace is factored into these numbers, you'll sometimes see a winning horse get a lower speed figure than a horse he beat (often in situations where the winner enjoyed a favorable pace scenario).

• For some perspective, here are the speed figures earned by each of the last five Kentucky Derby winners:

Orb - 111 (Kentucky Derby). Prior three races: 104, 106, 91
I'll Have Another - 116, 112, 112, 58
Animal Kingdom - 117, 107, 99, 101
Super Saver - 112, 116, 110, 109
Mine that Bird - 117, 103, 97, 92
UPDATE: A commenter below asked to see what horses had been running heading into the last few editions of the Kentucky Derby. The chart below displays all Derby starters, and what their speed figures looked like heading into the first Saturday in May. Use the tabs at the bottom to see previous years.  


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Older Comments about Top TimeformUS Speed Figures for Current Three-Year-Old Crop...

I am just very curious and trying to get a grasp of your rationale. I understand the premise of your making a final Speed figure. I use the Thoro Graph speed sheets. On their numbers, Calofornia Chrome ran the fastest race in his last. I do not know if you incorporate ground loss into your numbers. Regardless if you do or not,he really did not have an extremely wide trip that would bump him up so fast. What i am trying to understand is how 2 products can be so off. Mind you i am not saying who is right or wrong. For the gamblers,you look for descrepencies like this and hope that your product is correct in analyzing the speed. But you list about 35 horses ,and he does not appear. I guess you had the race very slow. Would it be possible for you to tell me what his Timform figure for hist last race was.
  • TimeformUS · We do not factor ground loss into our speed figures, so that could be part of the discrepancy. Also, California Chrome earned a 100 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that last race (the California Cup Derby) · 641 days ago
What would be great to also see is, for each of the past 5 years, which horse from the Derby field had the best/highest Timeform speed figures. That would give us some perspective on how the eventual Derby winner looked versus the horse rated highest based on speed figures.
these #s will change after the Swale LOL
When they say they incorporate pace into their speed figures, and their top two speed figures for 2013 are given to a horse running loose on the lead, what's to wonder about?

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