Our search for the hottest Pace Meltdown scenario of the day takes us this week to Turfway Park, where the 8th race is a 5K claimer at a mile on the synthetic track. Here’s the TimeformUS Pace Projector.
The #5 horse, It Is the Way (20-1), is projected to lead after a half mile of this race; and a look at his last race shows that he set blazing early fractions (denoted in red).
It also shows that he quit badly, and a look at his career record shows that the few times he has attempted a route have resulted in similarly dismal results.
So, we believe that his presence in this race will lead to the three horses pictured on Pace Projector behind him--all of whom break outside of him, and have running style designations of 'Leader' or 'Speed'--on a merry goose chase that will lead to their early demise.
These include #10, Quiet Rebel (3-1 ML) and #9, Kera's Kitten (5-1), both of whom may have surface issues over the synthetic track, in addition to having a preference for being on the lead. Amongst the candidates to take advantage of a potential meltdown up front is #7, Bakers Woods (15-1).
He won, in this class and at this distance, three back when he got an absolutely blazing pace that we can only hope to approach here! Then, not only was the pace slower next time, but his chances were further compromised by an extreme speed favoring track (denoted in dark red as shown). Last out, the pace was slower still. We're expecting that things will be much livelier up front this time. Note also that his late pace rating of 68 (to the right of his running style) is the fastest in this race.