Posted by the TimeformUS Handicapping Team:
In our Pace Meltdown feature, we scan the Friday races across the country with the aim of finding a prospective pace that is so hot HOT HOT that you’ll break out in a drenching sweat just looking at the Pace Projector!
This Friday, our pressure gauge calculator directs us to Sunland Park, where the Pace Projector for the 7th race looks like this.
Tanabata (#1, 5-1), Embossing (#2, 8-1) and Duality (#5, 12-1) are projected to vie for the lead in this 5 ½ furlong affair. Taking a look at Tanabata, this five-year old New Mexico-bred has had some recent success, going wire-to-wire two and three races back. In both those cases, racing against weaker (this race has a TimeformUS race rating of 63), she was able to establish an open lead in races with moderate early pace numbers.
However, note how she faded badly in her last when pressed to go faster early. And, with the presence of the other two, that is a more likely scenario here, as we can see from their recent tries.
Better yet, morning line favorite Out Last (#6, 3-1), is also designated as a 'Speed' horse, yet is projected to not even make it to the front.
The three horses that appear in the back of the pack in Pace Projector are labeled as 'Closer' or 'Plodder,' and this seems like the kind of scenario each would need to be competitive. This is an excellent race to put our late pace ratings to work. To purchase past performances for the Sunland card or, better yet, for all tracks for the next three days for just $2.99, click here.