• Long shot Stormy Lucy (65-1) upsets the Matriarch (G1) at Del Mar in the last stride. Posted 2 days ago
  • Dortmund romps home a winner in the Native Diver.Posted 3 days ago
  • Commissioner much the best in the Hawthorne Gold Cup.Posted 3 days ago
  • Chiropractor edges March for a Hollywood Derby win at 14-1.Posted 3 days ago
  • Airoforce takes to the dirt in a big way, pulling away to win the Kentucky Jockey Club.Posted 3 days ago
  • Carina Mia turns back Stageplay in the Golden Rod.Posted 3 days ago
  • Tonalist with a late rush to just get up in the Cigar Mile!Posted 3 days ago
  • Forever Unbridled outduels Carrumba to the wire in the Comely.Posted 3 days ago
  • Mohaymen an impressive winner of Aqueduct's nine furlong Remsen.Posted 3 days ago
  • Lewis Bay runs to her odds in the Demoiselle.Posted 3 days ago
HRN Original Blog:
TimeformUS's Blog

TimeformUS Pace Projector forecasts meltdown at Hawthorne Friday

TimeformUS Pace Meltdown


Let's try to warm up the frigid environs of Chicago with our Hot-pace Meltdown race of the week!  Friday's 8th race at Hawthorne is a mile and 70 yard affair for Illinois breds, and the TimeformUS Pace Projector looks like this:

TimeformUS Pace Projector

TimeformUS PPs

Quite happily, the logjam up front involves the first and second choices on the morning line. Azeg (#8, 2-1) is stretching out to a two-turn route at which he's shown plenty of speed in the past (and does so for a "HOT" trainer in Michael Revis).

TimeformUS PPs

Looking at his Oct 30 race, it's surely worth noting that this horse was unable to hold on at this distance even when the pace was slow (denoted by the pace figures in blue), and when the track was favoring speed (denoted by the race rating in light red)!  Now, he figures to face a significantly tougher task. Paper Maker (#3, 7-2) has flashed much improved early speed since stretching back out to two turns.

TimeformUS PPs

Those pace figures in his last race would cause some serious problems for Azeg. And to make matters worse, Prince Who (#4, 20-1) stretches out in distance after having shown some keen speed at six furlongs.  Even Last Nouncer (#5, 5-1) showed improved speed first time at a distance last time out, and could in theory be involved early as well.

Amongst the horses who could take advantage and get involved late is Captain America (#6, 10-1).  He has the best late pace rating in the field, at 81.

TimeformUS PPs

This horse rallied to win despite an unnaturally slow pace in the slop; so lethargic, in fact, that it suggests some kind of fluke related to the sloppy track conditions. What we're looking for here more is a repeat of three-back effort of Nov 17, in which the pace was hot and he came from 8th, rallied six wide and got up late.  And yes, he also has some good efforts on fast tracks in his past form with some back figures that would put him in the ballgame for at least a share in this spot.
To see the other contenders, you can purchase past performances for the Hawthorne card or, better yet, for all tracks for the next three days for just $2.99, click here    


comments powered by Disqus

Related Pages


The TimeformUS Blog is written by several TimeformUS Analysts from around the country.
TimeformUS.com is a new horse racing website designed to make playing the races faster, easier, and more fun. 

Best of the Blogs

Top Stories