• Miss Ella (5-2) wins the Caress Stakes at Saratoga for the second straight year.Posted 20 hours ago
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  • Lady Eli (9-10), giving eight pounds, edges Quidura on the wire of the Grade 1 Diana.Posted 2 days ago
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  • Twisted Tom (7-10) scores a hard-earned win in the New York Derby.Posted 2 days ago
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Saratoga and Del Mar 2017
HRN Original Blog:
TimeformUS's Blog

The Search for a Pick 6 Single at Saratoga

Saratoga Crowd 615 X 400
Photo: Eclipse Sportswire

Today's card at Saratoga features a Pick Six carryover, and those looking to take advantage of it might find it frustrating that some of the most-likely winners on the card are not in the Pick Six sequence. Rather, they are in the early races. 

Fourth Race - Local Post Time 2:36 pm ET

One such horse is Sayaad in today's fourth race. He is the second choice on the morning line, at 5/2, behind Winning Cause, who was installed as a clear-cut 8/5 favorite. Sayaad stands out over his opposition. He's run two triple-digit speed figures in his last three starts, and the one time he failed to run a triple-digit figure, he overcame an extremely troubled trip and ran a solid speed figure of 93. None of the opposition that Sayaad faces today has ever run a triple-digit speed figure. Moreover, Sayaad projects for a favorable, forwardly placed trip, and he gets a five-pound weight break from Winning Cause. The Pick Six would have been more attractive today if this race were part of the sequence.

Seventh Race - Local Post Time 4:14 pm ET

If you're looking for a dangerous horse at a fat price to include in your Pick Six sequence, one horse you'll definitely want to use is Cowboy Prince, who is 8/1 on the morning line. 

Cowboy Prince was assigned speed figures of 76 and 77 in his two most recent starts, and no other horse in this field has run anything better than a 72 in his two most recent starts. It's rare that you get that type of price on a horse with the best recent speed figures.  

Last time out, Cowboy Prince was involved in a breakaway speed duel with Show Some Lovin. Those two ran a sharp opening quarter and separated about four lengths from the pack while knocking heads around the far turn. Cowboy Prince ran a game race to finish second, never letting his pace rival by. Said pace rival, Show Some Lovin, resurfaced last week and won a turf sprint by four lengths at 3/1 odds. 

The concern with Cowboy Prince is the seven-furlong distance. However, Joel Rosario is very good at rationing out the speed of horses who stretch out in distance, and the hope is that Cowboy Prince will be able to see out today's distance under the skillful Rosario. 

Betting Strategy:  Win bet on Cowboy Prince.  Use Apex, Let's Have Us One, and Easement underneath in exotic wagers. 

Pick Six Single (Race 8) - Local Post Time 4:14 pm ET

Although he is a must-use, we can't recommend Amberjack (Race 9) as a single in the Pick Six. He does have an edge in speed figures, but he also projects for a difficult trip, giving away weight and stalking outside in the face of what should be a pretty swift early pace for this distance. Go Get the Basil is the biggest danger and could benefit greatly from the trip. 

Instead, with some reluctance, we will go to race 8 and suggest Ruslana as the best option for a Pick Six single today. Ruslana ran a very good second at this class level in her debut. She gets first-time lasix today, and her dam, Big Cat Walks Late, was an outstanding turf-sprint specialist.

The horse we fear most is Zip On, who, fortunately, is drawn to the inside of Ruslana. Zip On has sensational early speed and a good turf-sprint pedigree. Horses like Zip On can be dangerous first-time turf sprint, but if one is to single somewhere, Ruslana is that somewhere today. 


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Older Comments about The Search for a Pick 6 Single at Saratoga...

Thank you Brian. Appreciate it. I enjoyed your ranking of the Travers winners since Affirmed, by the way.
Nice call on Sayaad, Doug!

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