Private Zone is the 3-1 morning line favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. He comes off a win in the Grade 1 Vosburgh at Belmont. There, he was able to achieve an open-length lead on the backstretch and into the turn under what looked like a comfortable hold by jockey Martin Pedroza. Turning for home, he eased over to what was a golden rail that day and surrendered the lead midstretch to Justin Phillip, the 4-1 second choice in the Sprint. But Private Zone battled back to grind out the win (with help from a solid, and uncalled, bump delivered to his rival near the wire).
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However, in the Sprint, the TimeformUS Pace Projector forecasts a far different pace scenario, one that makes him very much a favorite to try and beat.
Breaking from the #7 post, Private Zone faces early pace pressure from the inside and out. Gentlemen’s Bet (8-1), the #3 horse, was bumped at the start of his last race, and may not have been comfortable on the Keeneland Polytrack. Back to dirt, this lightly raced and improving four-year-old figures to be involved early, as he was in the Grade 1 A.G Vanderbilt, a race in which he took on the speedy veteran Delauney early.
To the outside, from the #11 post, is the defending Sprint champ Trinniberg (8-1). He comes off an extremely dull prep, but has since picked up the pace in his morning drills in a manner that suggests he’ll at least be involved early.
And if either of those falters, #5 Sum of the Parts and #8 Fast Bullet are strictly early-speed types who figure to be gunned forwardly in search of a share of the $1.5 million purse.
This expected pace meltdown puts us onto #1 Justin Phillip (4/1) as our selection. He has posted TimeformUS Speed Figures that are highly competitive in this field, and the pace should set up perfectly for him to make a late run.
Another closer who should benefit from this pace and could hit the board at a price is #12 Laugh Track (20/1). He'll be off the pace, he's lightly raced, and could be sitting on career top.
TimeformUS Pace Projector
The Pace Projector is available in all TimeformUS Past Performances, and it forecasts the location of the horses at the opening quarter-mile of a sprint, or the opening half-mile of a route. The post above contains a FREE Pace Projector for the Breeders' Cup Sprint, where it looks as if morning line favorite Private Zone will be in a speed duel with some of the fastest sprinters in the world.