to Thoroughmetrics! I’ll be taking a
look at various topics here, typically focusing on how statistics can be better
applied to thoroughbred racing in general and to pedigree analysis in
particular. I’ll start off by revisiting
some topics that I discussed when I had an independent blog a few years back.
one post, I said the following about unraced sires:
Most horses, regardless of breeding are
relatively unsuccessful on the racetrack. Certainly most are not successful
enough to warrant much interest as broodmares. So statistically, you have to go
on the assumption that most unraced mares would not have been good enough to be
worth much for breeding. This is even more true once you consider that they may
have remained unraced due to soundness issues that they could potentially pass
along to their offspring. No matter how well bred, I would assume an unraced
broodmare should be a cheap broodmare.
An obviously extension of this line of thinking
is that an unraced stallion is NEVER worth trying out. I don't care that he's a
son of Storm Cat out of a top mare. The odds that he would have been successful
enough to warrant a career at stud are incredibly low...certainly never high
enough to justify an expensive breeding experiment.
While looking back over the comments on the blog, I noticed
that an anonymous reader then commented “There are many unraced sons of Storm
Cat that are successful in the breeding shed."
I wanted to check the accuracy of that statement and how it
impacts the conclusion I made in my original post. Unfortunately I ran into the same challenge
that happens so often when analyzing thoroughbred racing. The specific information I was looking for
somewhat challenging to find. One site
indicated that ‘At least 39 different sons of Storm Cat have sired stakes
winners.' I think it’s safe to say that
a stallion can’t be considered successful without siring at least one stake
winner, so the question then becomes how many of those 39 were unraced.
Of course, another site says “31 sons of Storm Cat have sired
Group/Grade 1 winners." That seems a bit
hard to reconcile. Is it possible that
he’s only had 8 sons who sired winners of Grade 2 or 3 stakes but NOT Grade
1? Or have 39 of his sons sired stakes
winners in the US while 31 have sired grade/group 1 winners worldwide? As always with horse racing data, the facts
are hard to find.
actually a big part of the appeal of starting Thoroughmetrics back up as a part
of Horse Racing Nation. I’m hoping that
the readers here are able to help me out as I try to answer some of the
statistical questions that are so fascinating about thoroughbred racing. So if you have any information on offspring
of Storm Cat at stud (including those who are deceased), I’d love to hear from
you, either in the comments here or an email to me at firstname.lastname@example.org.