I could sit here and sell you excuses and whatnot about why I've not posted more frequently here, but let’s just be honest… Work can be a pain in the ass and it takes away from the fun stuff sometimes.
As we rapidly approach the end of the 2012 Zia Park racing season and glance ahead to the upcoming Sunland Park season, I’m hoping to jump back on the beam as well and provide you with some insights on the racing scene here in the “Land of Enchantment.”
Let’s get after it right now with one of the highlights of the thoroughbred racing season here in Hobbs, and that’s Saturday’s $150,000 Zia Park Derby
, which will go as the 10th race of a strong 11-race card.
The Derby features a mixed bag of shippers, speedsters, stayers and class-jumpers. In other words, it’s one of those races where a lot has to go the right way for your horse to get home on top.
The morning line favorite, Doug O’Neill’s
Private Zone, drew the perfect spot for his likely front-running tactics under journeyman rider Kevin Krigger.
The problem with Private Zone
? Well, there’s actually more than one, so let’s start with the obvious.
He’s going to be an impossibly short price on which to make a serious investment. He comes from high-profile connections, appears to have run a super race last time out at Santa Anita and could easily go gate-to-wire if he gets out on a lonely lead.
Going back and watching his second-place effort in the Damascus Stakes at Santa Anita tipped me off that he may not be such a worthy investment after all.
On a track that totally played to speedy types, Private Zone dueled through quick fractions of 22.16 and 43.88 before opening up a length lead in midstretch.
That’s when the roof caved in on Private Zone. The fractions caught up to him and he melted down late, finishing second in the 7-furlong sprint behind a well-meant runner Politicallycorrect. (Don’t worry, this all ties together soon…. Keep reading!)
Private Zone doesn’t seem to like being sent along, he doesn’t appear to run well when not sent to the lead, he has yet to win a race in four starts since shipping stateside from Panama & quite frankly, he’s done very little to warrant anywhere that 5-to-2 morning line price.
With Motown Men, Alsvid, Whining and Master Rick all figuring to be a part of the early pace, I think a wise way to play would be to toss Private Zone in all wagers. If he beats us, he beats us. I just happen to believe there’s not much here to like.
There appear to be two very logical contenders here, one which will be pressing the pace and another who will be looking to slingshot past the leaders as the field hit’s the head of the lane.
I like the looks of #9 MASTER RICK
. Although he’s hard-pressed from his outside post, he’s danced with some of the best along the way and may be rounding back into form.
The Steve Asmussen
-trained son of Master Command is winless in five starts since winning the Northern Spur Stakes at Oaklawn Park last March. In fact, he’s only hit the board once in those races, a non-threatening third place finish in the Grade 2 Super Derby this past summer at Louisiana Downs.
The winner of that race, Bourbon Courage
, came back with a strong third place finish in the Clark Handicap at Churchill Downs.
I can’t blame you for being skeptical of that seventh-place finish in the Oklahoma Derby at Remington Park last time out. I was skeptical as well -- even after seeing his no-excuse effort.
Take a look at his company line… seriously, read it… I’ll still be here when you come back.
Note the winner of the race Politicallycorrect, who would come back just 5 weeks later to win the aforementioned Damascus Stakes at Santa Anita. Also in that field were some tough customers in Willy Beamin and Called To Serve.
No disrespect intended (alright, that’s a bit of a lie) but there are no such stars in this event.
Listed as the third choice on the morning line at odds of 9-to-2, Master Rick might be a fair price on the toteboard and figures to be in the mix from the outside post and could be tough to run down late.
With a healthy dose of speed in the race, it would be unwise to overlook #8 EXPLAIN
for trainer Robertino Diodoro.
Most recently, Explain tired in deep stretch to finish a close fourth in the Pomona Derby around three turns at Fairplex Park.
Earlier in the Pomona season, Explain won a 6-furlong sprint stakes race, earning only the second win in his 9-race career.
It’s safe to say that even with a bit of a class cloud to climb here, that race conditions may be more in his favor here under jockey Jorge Carreno.
Explain is listed at 6-to-1 on the morning line & I think that’s a rather reasonable number considering the apparent raceshape.
#5 YANKEE DAN and #4 ALSVID may be prominent in the lane here as well.
I’ve written much better stuff than this in the past, so forgive me while I use this space to shake off the rust.
If you believe in luck, then I hope you have plenty of it.