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Breeders Cup 2015

HRN Original Blog:
A New York State of Racing


Older Comments...

How much does one workout indicate about the success for a race nine days later when there are still other days when working and conditioning are a factor both before and after this workout? Are we sure that O'Neil intended for this workout to be intense just because it was the last official workout? Or, does he want to depend on some other conditioning techniques earlier next week when the race? Or, does feel that the practice that makes perfect for a race already took place in the last few workouts and this was not one to overwork or wear out? It sounds rhetorical, but it is really like negative assertions have been put in that were not really there yesterday. At least if you looked at the workouts by other horses, no one, including California Chrome, put in their max effort yesterday.
Easy gallop this morning. Now comes the longest seven days, waiting for the dreaded scratch! http://www.xbtv.com/video/workout/arrogate-galloped-at-santa-anita-park-on-october-28th-2016-for-the-breeders-cup-classic/
Unless it rains, Songbird will win the 2016 BC Distaff by at least 3 lengths (after taking into account the BC weight allowance). Forget about their BSFs. It will be 23 and change... 23 and change... goodbye! Stellar Wind can cause Songbird to lose by grinding her early but she won't win either if doing so. According to RPR, Songbird will easily beat Beholder and Stellar Wind the same way American Pharoah beat Honor Code and Tonalist in the 2015 BCC (remember those 2 also had better BSFs coming in).
Are there weight limits, If so what are they and does( Found (being a Filly) get a break
  • Steve Gibson via Disqus · All horses will race at 126 lbs except for fillies/mares (Found), who will race at 123lbs, and then the three 3 year olds, Gun Runner, Arrogate, and Nyquist, who will each race at 122lbs. · 1 hour ago
Anyone has any thoughts on this race?
Very weird workout. Jockeys had no clue what they were doing. Some people are saying Nyquist doesn't want to play the game anymore. If that is the case, it's his connections fault.
  • MaryZinke via Disqus · Don't blame Jonny Garcia. · 22 hours ago
  • Pitbull via Disqus · Hes about done krispy. As long as Gutierrez is the jockey he will not win again. · 1 hour ago
For crying out loud, can we let the horse run his race and run the race that is the length that he last won at, which actually was a mile and a quarter? And then we can start talking about the miler/sprinter theory and try him on one of the end-of-the-year.
Can someone post more information on Kitcat profile page on races and videos Thanks https://equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=9839533®istry=T&rbt=TB
Iron Fist/Divining Rod/Kasaqui/Chicopologie
People say some of the top dirt horses in training don't deserve to run in the classic yet they say found does? Come on give me a break. This is a tall order for any female much less a female who has never won on dirt. Being her tenth race of the year. Doing it against the five year old monster that is the number one horse in the world. On his home turf. On a speed favoring track he runs best on. When he got a freshening midway through the year and is in the best form of his life. Glad Chrome is facing the best but saying she deserves to be in this race also means horses like Beholder, Songbird, and Stellar Wind deserve to as well. Just because you deserve to go- doesnt mean youre are going.
It is highly IMPROBABLE if not impossible, to compare "pressed" segmental velocity times to "alone on the lead" times. Many a horse, all by itself, run like tigers only to falter when battling through those first 4 furlongs. Before you can support a horse that is a front runner (like Affirmed for example or Lady's Secret) is to watch and compare the fractions the animal OVERCAME to get that lead. Once they show that (i.e. War Emblem was an example who needed to be alone on the lead or he faltered) adaptability, you can project, but the need to lead animals have a large Achilles Heel.
  • Show All 3 Comments
  • MaryZinke via Disqus · I'm definitely Need, Will Take, Have The Lead, tv. Alone at the lead, ahead of ALL others. I know what's mine. War Emblem is MY Derby pick. Mine. · 1 day ago
  • amino998 · Are you talkin' 'bout Arrogate? ps: a Need to Lead animal's large Achille's heels could indicate kankles :( · 5 hours ago
5 furlongs in 59.40...handily...4/75...looking good.
Arrogate has looked great in his workouts! He just floats through the air..... I can only imagine how much more impressive he must look watching him work in person! He has an incredible reach and just wants to keep going and going...... He looks like the real deal!
  • sczen50 · Yes he could be the real deal..I think so. Yes he does look like that huh. What you just said about him..I was just thinking that about Chrome going for more stride for stride... and what I've also read about him. Actually I've heard that also about the previously mentioned guys. Through past readings, or what I've witnessed on film, in person, or on TV... Actually Another Sec or MOW?? or Slew though? lol UHH Let's just put that on hold for now though. lol Chrome looks like he's Also floating!! BEAUTIFUL ANIMALS AREN'T THEY? OH PLEASE don't let them know that I just wrote that. I Swear--some of them would know exactly what I just said..calling them animals. As some think they're probably human. lol!! · 3 days ago
  • Malcolm · Arrogate is a top dirt horse in America , better than Round Table , Rich Cream and Iron Liege an gallup he shall lol , it is ok if i mis-believe a little bit hehehe · 6 hours ago
Chrome getting serenaded after his workout yesterday http://youtu.be/6e5kj5bzRAI
  • Bandit252 via Disqus · Fun video!! I laughed when Chrome started to swing his head a bit with my music...before he tried to bite the guy :) · 6 hours ago
He just popped a 59 and 2 5F work at SA in his final prep. 4th fastest work of 74 at the distance, and Dave does not work them fast in the mornings.
but i agree with Bloodhorse this Colt was full of greatness but idk what happened was it pletcher?
first OFF< FOR THE LOVE OF Pete Sampras, tell me Nyquist isn't going! Give that horse a break! That sed, my heart is with Chrome, but Found is dangerous. If arrogate wins he is just a total freak.
Melatonin missed over a year in 2014-2015. What was that from? Also, not having run since June, and being scratched from the Pacific Classic, is it likely we have seen the last of him on the track?
  • Pebbles via Disqus · He seems to be on a pretty regular work schedule now... Santa Anita 10/15/2016 Dirt 7F 1:27.00 Handily 1/3 Santa Anita 10/9/2016 Dirt 7F 1:27.00 Handily 3/6 Santa Anita 10/2/2016 Dirt 6F 1:11.80 Handily 1/29 Santa Anita 9/26/2016 Dirt 6F 1:14.00 Handily 6/19 Santa Anita 9/21/2016 Dirt 5F 1:02.00 Handily 35/51 Santa Anita 9/12/2016 Dirt 4F 48.40 Handily 5/50 Santa Anita 9/6/2016 Dirt 3F 35.80 Handily 2/3 · 9 days ago
  • Steve Gibson via Disqus · EPM. Equine protozoal myeloencephalitis. It is a parasite based disease that attacks the horse's central nervous system. Most horses that get it do not race again. This dude fought it and overcame it. · 7 hours ago
Standing at Mighty Acres Stud

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 Meet Matt Shifman 

Matt Shifman has been on the Horse Racing Nation staff since 2011 and currently serves as Assistant Editor. Matt covers Aqueduct, Belmont Park, Monmouth Park, and Saratoga in his two HRN blogs Racing at the Jersey Shore and New York State of Racing.


Matt’s articles and tweets frequently appear in the America’s Best Racing weekly Notebook. In 2012 he became a voter in the NTRA weekly polls for the Top Thoroughbred and Top Three-Year-Old.


The best way to get to know Matt is to check out some of his favorite articles from the past couple years.

• Preakness Interview with Trainer Todd Pletcher

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• Edison: the Travels of a Million Dollar Colt 

• A Kentucky Derby Field with Just 14 Horses

• What is the Best Kentucky Derby Running Style?



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