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  • Lady Shipman breezes home much the best in Belmont's License Fee.Posted 4 days ago
  • Ben's Cat sprints home late to win his 10yo seasonal debut in thrilling fashion.Posted 4 days ago
  • Minding shows her class, easily winning the 1000 Guineas.Posted 4 days ago
  • Uncle Lino digs in to win the inaugural California Chrome Stakes.Posted 4 days ago
  • A Lot holds off favored Green Mask by a whisker to win the Elusive Quality.Posted 5 days ago
  • Galileo Gold, under Frankie Dettori, rolls in the 2000 Guineas.Posted 5 days ago
  • Olorda takes them all the way in the Bewitch Stakes on closing day at Keeneland.Posted 6 days ago
  • Nyquist will get in his final Kentucky Derby workout Friday afternoon at Keeneland.Posted 9 days ago
  • Time and Motion wins the Memories of Silver for Jimmy Toner.Posted 11 days ago
  • Finest City sets new track record in Great Lady M.Posted 11 days ago

HRN Original Blog:
A New York State of Racing

 

Older Comments...

Hm, I don't like this horse, but didn't like Chrome too. But the truth is that they are a very good horses and Nyquist has a very real chance to win the triple crown. We will see.
Mo Tom's dad was a miler. I am not sure he is gonna have it in deep stretch. Not sure he wants to go this far.
Good Luck to Baffert and Company ending the drought of winning out of 17!
So yesterday I dreamed that Swipe passed Exaggerator right at the wire to win the Derby. The big question now is: how on earth did Swipe earn enough points to participate in the KD in my dream? xD
Tom Durkin was drunk again in the Wood calling races, wrong horses called all the way up to the finish. Thank goodness he is gone from NBC.
Pace wise, Nyquist is an outlier much akin to the way Barbaro was in his Derby: consistently doing JUST ENOUGH to win as his pace numbers have not matched well to the field he has beaten several times in his recently history. Cant throw him out but he looks vulnerable. Very consistent overall, but his early pace ha risen as the distances increased at the expense of his late moves.
WOW a maiden is gonna run in the Kentucky Derby. I give him props for his effort in the Wood but i don't think anyone from the Wood is gonna make an impact in the KY Derby.
  • kaitlinefree1 · i think this is a fine colt. i really like him, despite being a maiden. hes got a champion sire & dam & a pedigree that suits the Derby distance. plus we know if theres slop, he'll be fine. we'll see. hes my longshot if he goes. · 24 days ago
  • travel_vic · many maidens have won the race Broker's Tip. Sir Barton, Buchanan. Nationalore ran as a maiden in the 98 version to finish 7th · 2 hours ago
Basically a turf horse in the derby like Animal Kingdom.
"Creator will NOT get the job done today." OOPS may bad!!
Anybody else on the Mo Tom train, What's your thoughts on him?
Nyquist will run his heart out, and he will be gallant in defeat, but I see him finishing in the 2nd to 5th positions, in that ball park. Something coming from the back is going to get him. My top selection is Exaggerator, but I also think other closers like Brody's Cause, Creator and Suddenbreakingnews will also be there or thereabouts at the finish and are also big dangers and have a big chance of winning the whole thing.
time to give us the right show moh , good luck
This one has been HEAVILY backed in the UK in the past 2 days, he's gone from odds of 20-1, down to 10-1 and 12-1 with every bookmaker, seems to be a very popular choice here. But to be honest, it's a horse I haven't fancied from the start and I don't think he will be any sort of factor in the race, I think his finishing positiion maybe 6th to 12th, that ball park range for "Gun Runner", that's what I think anyway.
Betting Statistics: Kentucky Derby 2016 Horse #13 is the early favorite. A #13 has not won the Kentucky Derby in the past 83 races (last time in 1931). Maybe now it’s the time to win. The number 13, however, has been popular as Place (2nd place finish) in recent races. It should be, statistically, a good occasion to bet bigger on #13 as Win and also Place. Number 17 has never won the Kentucky Derby. Always a good idea to bet on such numbers. #18 won last year (2015) for the first time; #19 recorded the first win in 2012. Straight exactas and straight trifectas do not repeat in many races. Considering the jockey impact: Victor Espinosa rides horse #10. At 20–1, it’s a very good value. Ion Saliu, Founder of Equestrian Mathematics http://saliu.com/kentucky-derby-winners.html
It's amazing some of the superstitions people have when picking a horse to win. I'm picking Nyquist because he has the same brown and black color scheme as my dog, purple/white are my school colors, and number 13 is my daughter's birthday...:) The only time I ever bet on a horse for his talent was Union Rags, but he came in a disappointing 7th in the KD, and thankfully redeemed himself at the Belmont with a win. However, a horse race is still a matter of luck when it comes to wagering. Even as good as Secretariat was (and IMHO he will always be the best) he only competed against 4 other horses in the Belmont Stakes. Could the lack of competition on the track (meaning the low number of horses on the track with him) have contributed to his success? I wonder how much faster today's horses could finish if they weren't slowed down by the chaos coming out of the gate to get to the first turn and again as they round the 4th turn. This may possibly allow Secretariat to forever hold the records. I would like to see the field limited to 10 horses. But thinking again, if the field were smaller, then the money wouldn't be as good....and well, there you have it, money talks. Good Luck, everyone! And GO, NYQUIST!!!
The WINNER of the 2016 Kentucky Derby. Remember, you heard it here first. :-D
Surely just a "paid workout" for Beholder this weekend in the Adoration Stakes at her beloved Santa Anita??? She will probably go off at around odds of about 1-5, maybe even 1-9, and she should win under just a hand ride by 5 or more. I hope she is EXPLOSIVE as ever, she can definitely beat all-comers including Chrome, and I think she would put that young girl in her place..................... I'm talking about "Songbird" of course. :-)
The only one I'm familiar with in this field is Selenite... so?
Most riders NEW to the K Derby, (not all of course as Mario proved) get overhyped riding in that big race the first time. Beware firster riders...
Based on the poll on the site here, comments on other forums and social media chatter it seems like Mo Tom is the "wise guy" horse and may be a pretty big underlay in the Kentucky Derby. I like Mo Tom, he has showed he certainly has talent and I can see him winning big races but not on the first Saturday in May and not at those odds I expect. The reason he has gotten attention is that he has gotten into trouble and had a legitimate excuse in at least his last 3 races, and that is the exact reason why I don't like him. I can't see using a horse in a 20 horse field that seems to find trouble. Many with as much or more talent such as Union Rags, Lookin at Lucky, Saarland, Dollar Bill (off the top of my head) had similar hype and similar trouble in their preps and finished way back in the big one, and for at least the last two, as big underlays.
  • Thomas Marshall via Disqus · You need to do more research. He got attention when he beat Tom's Ready in a stakes race at Churchill and even more for finishing 3rd at Churchill against Airoforce in the slop while closing. · 12 days ago
  • Ruffianlover · Your analysis makes no sense. BECAUSE he has had trouble you SHOULD be considering him in the derby. I'll take a horse that still comes with his run even after getting taken up, blocked, stopped, checked any time over an untested horse. The added distance will only help him. Even if he runs into trouble with a bad trip- he will be flying late with the added distance as soon as he gets free in the stretch. Watch out · 6 hours ago

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 Meet Matt Shifman 
 
 

Matt Shifman has been on the Horse Racing Nation staff since 2011 and currently serves as Assistant Editor. Matt covers Aqueduct, Belmont Park, Monmouth Park, and Saratoga in his two HRN blogs Racing at the Jersey Shore and New York State of Racing.

 

Matt’s articles and tweets frequently appear in the America’s Best Racing weekly Notebook. In 2012 he became a voter in the NTRA weekly polls for the Top Thoroughbred and Top Three-Year-Old.

 

The best way to get to know Matt is to check out some of his favorite articles from the past couple years.

   

 Edison: the Travels of a Million Dollar Colt 


 A Kentucky Derby Field with Just 14 Horses


What is the Best Kentucky Derby Running Style?

 

 

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