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HRN Original Blog:
A New York State of Racing

2014 Kentucky Derby: The Future is Now

Kentucky Derby 2014
Pool 2 of the 2014 Kentucky Derby Future Wager opens Thursday at noon ET and runs until approximately 6:00 pm ET on Saturday. In other words: the future is now.  Pool 2 features nine horses that were part of Pool 1, and 14 new betting interests. Also, there is the option to wager on the mutuel field or all the other horses beyond the 23 designated individual horses.
 
The KDFW is an opportunity to have some fun and make a wager while trying to pick the winner of the 140th running of the Kentucky Derby 80 or so days in advance. For the more serious handicappers and gamblers, who bet on the KDFW, it is all about finding value. Any bettor who is willing to make a large future wager must weigh the odds against the fact that most of the betting interests in the KDFW Pool 2 will not make it to the starting gate on May 3rd.
 
I like to have fun with the Future Wager by making a few small bets here and there. For me, being able to say I picked the Derby winner in Pool 1 or 2 is worth just has much as the small wager that goes with it.  I cashed a ticket on I'll Have Another at 29-1 that was a Pool 1 wager in 2012.
 
Even with the popularity of Orb in 2013, the Future wager provided some value. Orb’s price on Derby day was $12.80, but he paid $26.20 in Pool 2 and $29.60 in Pool 3.
 
This year’s Future Wager Pool 1 was offered in November, based solely on the two year-old seasons. At that time I bet Cairo Prince at 26-1 and Honor Code at 10-1. I am very happy with the bet on Cairo Prince after his win in the Holy Bull. The wager on Honor Code seems to be lacking value considering he has fallen way behind in his training due to ankle problems.
 
Be sure to look at the chart that highlights the nine horses that have appeared in both Pool 1 and Pool 2 for this year’s Derby. The chart shows Pool 1 closing odds and Pool 2 morning line odds.
 
Horses I like the most in Pool 2 are: Candy Boy, Commissioner, Intense Holiday, Matterhorn, Strong Mandate, Tonalist, and Top Billing. I will follow the odds very carefully looking for value bets.  I feel certain that Intense Holiday, Matterhorn, and Tonalist will provide hefty odds, while the others will require watching.
 
If you play the Futures Wager let us know the horses you like over the next few days. Be sure to consult the Kentucky Derby Contenders page at Horse Racing Nation to help make your choices. 

 

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Older Comments about 2014 Kentucky Derby: The Future is Now...

oldgreymare--We Miss Artie and Pecorino are part of the mutuel field #24. There is a 3 or 4 person committee that helps Churchill Downs set the betting interests in each Pool.
no we miss artie or pecorino?....
There is a vendor on the net who touts his handicapping program who, unashamed and with out a shred of fact, tries to convince rubes that his system is so good that when it isoates a medium to long priced horse on top, betting all over the US drops!! Sure and then there is the proverbial bridge he has for sale as well.
FYI, Pool 2 closes at about 6:00pm Saturday, but must close before the Robert Lewis Stakes goes off at Santa Anita.
buds -- Thanks, my job is to share information and create interest and I would be really flattered if I could have any significant influence on the pool.
Dont even bother looking until Sunday morning, Here is a tip, if your looking for value dont post about the horse you like until AFTER the future pool is over
There are only two here that interest me at their current odds... COMMISSIONER (if > 20-1) and CONQUEST TITAN (47-1).
I'll be looking for value. No point in betting one of the favorites when you very well could get odds better than that on race day.

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Matt Shifman has been on the Horse Racing Nation staff since 2011. Matt covers Aqueduct, Belmont Park, Monmouth Park, and Saratoga in his two HRN blogs Racing at the Jersey Shore and New York State of Racing.

 

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