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  • Lady Shipman breezes home much the best in Belmont's License Fee.Posted 2 days ago
  • Ben's Cat sprints home late to win his 10yo seasonal debut in thrilling fashion.Posted 2 days ago
  • Minding shows her class, easily winning the 1000 Guineas.Posted 3 days ago
  • Uncle Lino digs in to win the inaugural California Chrome Stakes.Posted 3 days ago
  • A Lot holds off favored Green Mask by a whisker to win the Elusive Quality.Posted 3 days ago
  • Galileo Gold, under Frankie Dettori, rolls in the 2000 Guineas.Posted 4 days ago
  • Olorda takes them all the way in the Bewitch Stakes on closing day at Keeneland.Posted 4 days ago
  • Nyquist will get in his final Kentucky Derby workout Friday afternoon at Keeneland.Posted 8 days ago
  • Time and Motion wins the Memories of Silver for Jimmy Toner.Posted 9 days ago
  • Finest City sets new track record in Great Lady M.Posted 10 days ago

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A New York State of Racing

 

Older Comments...

For those who like Exaggerator, Brody’s Cause, Creator, Suddenbreakingnews, Whitmore, My Man Sam, Trojan Nation, or Mo Tom, consider this: since 1984 (as far back as my records go), (a) only one horse won the Derby after trailing the rest of the field after 1/2 mile in his final prep and (b) only one horse won the Derby after trailing by 8 lengths or more after 1/2 mile in his final prep. The former was Unbridled in 1990, and he was part of a 5-horse field and only 2 lengths back of the leader in the Blue Grass after 1/2 mile. The latter was Grindstone in 1996; he was 13 lengths behind after 1/2 mile in the Arkansas Derby. Add to this the probability of a relatively slow pace and these eight horses are at a distinct disadvantage.
I believe that had Beholder and AP met in the classic in 2015 that Beholder would have won easily. I've heard she's to meet Chrome this year... and I think the outcome will be the same. Regardless, she is an amazing athlete, and her fluid grace on the track IS poetry in motion.
Any news on where/when she'll be racing next?
In his first start on the flat in over 2-1/2 years, No Heretic wins the 2m 2-1/2f Chester Cup for Mrs. Fitri Hay and trainer Nicky Henderson.
Nyquist has a DI 7 and CD 1.0. Both well above average for endurance and speed. If he gets his trip and runs his race it's his to lose. But if he doesn't win then who? I see it wide open. Save your money on the pick six and bet pick 4. Hit ALL in the Derby leg. It is a 20 horse stampede of freshmen. Note to that Outwork has a higher DI and CD than Nyquist.
  • Chicken Dinner via Disqus · High dosage and cd not a good thing at 1 1/4...if you go by that · 1 hour ago
Here we go again ! Lets skip ahead to May 8th , the day after the Derby and this is what I'm hearing at the Kentucky bars. " Why didn't I bet my last $ 1000 on Nyquist ? " , " When Brody's Cause owner said he would donate the winnings to his school I should have jumped on that ", " Exaggerator was for real , no exaggerating " , " I love rum , why didn't I bet Rum Runner " ( ps : that dude had too much to drink ) " Destin was my first choice , he was destined to win ", MoTom + Mohaymen , it all makes perfect sense that they would run one two " , Cupid , with Mothers Day , Why didn't I think of that ? " , How about that Lani ? born in KY , studies in Japan, wins in Dubai , and easy winner in yesterday's Derby " , " Whitmore and Mor Spirit , Why didn't I play that ? We can do this all day to cover all 20 entries , but I'll let you guys and gals finish it for me . LOL + GOOD LUCK TO ALL !
Derby draw today folks feels great and excited were that much closer to the derby and my feeling haven't changed I do believe the pace will be honest I would love to have a chance to see back to back triple crown winners again (Seattle Slew 77" and Affirmed 78") if Nyquist gets by this race I believe he'll have a pretty good shot at history and O'neill and Gutierrez will have got what I'll Have Another probably would have given them, but I just have a feeling Mo Tom is going to nail them at the wire he is the X factor in this I believe he has yet to run basically a trouble free trip, he has not lost a race where you say can say he just got beat by a better horse he's proven a decent trip winning result. Nice trainer in amos, leading churchill downs jock in lanerie, has won at churchill downs and I believe he'll be laying midpack this time and let that potent kick go when lanerie calls on it. Good Luck Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Does anyone know which ones of these aren't running ? I don't think Oscar Nominated will run.
  • SSilence86 via Disqus · According to the Ramsey's Oscar Nominated will indeed run. There have been no defections of the top 20, but there have been with the "on the bubble" horses. Fellowship, Adventist & Dazzling Gem have not entered to be AE horses. So it moves up Loaban (now 21st) & Cherry Wine (now 22nd) · 2 hours ago
These are my top 8: 3 front-runners: Nyquist, Destin, Outwork; and 4 deep closers: Suddenbreakingnews, Creator, Whitmore, and Brody's Cause. These are all very great horses, Nyquist comes 2nd. Suddenbreakingnews comes 3rd. But my Kentucky Derby winner is EXAGGERATOR !! Mohaymen , Lani, and Mo Tom I all love but they're just not good enough.
Brody's Cause in my book is an Excellent horse with dangerous capabilities !!! Which makes it hard to keep him off the boards...Only 3yr who moved straight from MSW to G1 and win....loves Churchill and has been improving since taken off the Turf.... Exotics Key horse !!!
  • hoof_hearted666 · He's definitely another closer who will be there or thereabouts at the finish, along with Exaggerator, Suddenbreakingnews and Creator. :-) · 2 hours ago
Has there been any news on him lately?
Wouldn't it be something if Laneire wins both the Oaks and the Derby?
  • Dna0571 · Lol after all the heat he has taken lately that would definitely be something. Would be an amazing day for him. He's riding two very capable horses so it's possible. · 3 hours ago
1) I ALWAYS LOOK FOR A REASON TO BEAT THE FAVORITE in any race; as it was quoted that morning-line favorites lose 67% of the time. But remember these are HORSES NOT HUMANS. They do not know what is in the win, place or show pools 2) 7-2 or 4-1 is an absolutely attractive price for NYQUIST; the only way his odds will float up that high will be his post position draw. The early wagering and the very late wagering; within the last 1 hour of wagering will be a tell-tale sign. 3) POST POSITION DRAW is a factor and who is to his inside and outside will give you an idea of what the connections wil do out of the gate. 4) GATE SPEED to the 1/4 mark is critical in positioning the horses for their journey. There are only a few "real" speed horses in (Danzing Candy, Tom's Ready,) here but many "chase the speed" types (Outwork, NYQUIST and Whitmore) and "1st-Tier Stalking" types who hope to be forwardly placed(Gun Runner, Mohaymen, Mor Spirit, Shagaf, Lani) Running styles may be altered accordingly depending on post position and connections game plan together with split-second decisions by their respective jockey's. 5) RUNNING IN A LARGE FIELD - NYQUST navigated his way in the BCJuveile as a 2-YO his only huge field.. 6) "TWO-MOVE HORSES - They include NYQUIST, Mohaymen, Whitmore, Outwork, Gun Runner, Destin, Lani, Brody's Cause). Ability to position out oif the GATE and relax in position and make another move somewhwere throughout the race. 7) RUNNING STYLE - Last 12 of 15 Deby winners have been either speed, chase the speed or stalker types making their moves between the 6F and 1 M mark . 8) Sloppy track WILL definitely impact NYQUIST 9) PACE, FRACTIONS - Will NYQUIST get CALIFORNIA CHROME OR WAR EMBLEM like fractions ? best performances in the last decade regardless of time include War Emblem, Funny Cide, Barbaro, Big Brown and I'll Have Another. 10 PAST PERFORMANCES - NYQUIST's Florida Deby was very very nice. However, NYQUIST BEING ON THE LEAD;he had the luxury of pushing MOHAYMEN into the 3-4 path rounding the far turn into the stretch putting MOHAYMEN off-balance where the jockey had to change leads on MOHAYMEN. and the jockey did not persist @ that point.( The 8 lengths is very deceptive) 11) NYQUIST should
  • Ross via Disqus · Don't really see the difference between Chrome or WE's fractions in their Derby, CC and IHA's would've been more distinguishable. But to your point, I don't think they'll run Nyquist up front, they'll more than likely sit him 3rd-4th back no matter what the PP is as the last thing they would want to happen is for him to get caught with DC. I don't disagree with you though on him not finishing worse than 3rd as personally I don't think there'll be a hot pace here. Hoping for pace runners holding on for tri here before the closers get a chance. · 3 hours ago
I do feel for Moorside. She really tried and came so close to getting there, but just missed out in the Cheshire Oaks. Moorside probably needed a prior run for this year, too, so hopefully she will improve on this and eventually get herself a nice shiny stakes win.
I'm suprised more people aren't talking about this horse. He is one of the most (if not THE most) exciting horses in the race, and he is the key to the race too. Danzing Candy will have a huge impact on the outcome of the race, depending on if he scorches off like Usain Bolt with a rocket up his backside, and sets it up for the likes of Exaggerator, Creator, Suddenbreakingnews, Brody's Cause, or if he sets good sensible fractions and Mike Smith rides all the others to sleep and kicks for home at just the right time, then maybe Danzing Candy might just win the whole damn thing!!!!!
After the drought comes the Nyquist always raining will be a new Triple crowned stay healthy has a lot of class and a big heart
she has got the breeding behind her for a huge run at the distance , im all over her on a 12/1 ticket ,she will leave plenty weeping after the race
  • pointgiven23 via Disqus · She has a bit of "princess of sylmar" to her. She should be coming late, the key will be how she gets the trip from the inside post she drew. Pace should be good enough for her, she'll be one of the favorites with the favorites getting wide draws. · 7 hours ago
If this horse had the same talent as "Mr Ed" and could actually talk. What do you think he would say to his fans, ahead of the big race on Saturday??
I love this volt but I hate Kent has announced that this colt will be quote" So far back they will be counting cars avoiding the Derby Kick back" With so many deep closers I think this is a mistake
  • Show All 3 Comments
  • hoof_hearted666 · Surely they won't have him TOO far back?? I did love his last win, he came from a different State and stromed home, yes I know about the Sloppy track and suicidal pace that Danzing Candy set, blah blah blah, but I don't care about that, it was still a joy to watch. Exaggerator excites me, and I will be routing for him on Saturday. · 10 hours ago
  • Blueyedhusky via Disqus · It's ok. Kent will start his move with 5 furlongs left--before any of the other deep closers start theirs. He'll blow by all the deep closers, the closers, the mid-packers, the stalkers, and finally the leaders. He can afford to give the leaders 20 to 25 lengths, because while they will be running the last 5 furlongs in 1:02, he'll be doing it in 0:57. · 9 hours ago
Was hoping to have a discussion with some of the "core posters" on HRN about this horse. Right now I genuinely think this horse can and just might win the Derby. What I'm hoping to hear are the legitimate reasons that people don't think he will. I really loved his Florida Derby. Yes he was drifting a bit at the end, but he was coming off a sprint and a layoff so that race looked like a great fitness builder to me. I'm not more concerned about him getting the 10F as I am any other horse going 10F in this day and age. Weather/surface doesn't seem to be an issue either. How many of you are feeling this way about him? The horse has guts and he's just been faster than pretty much anyone. For those on the fence will it come down to post position? Unless he gets caught up in some terrible speed duel (and I think he's versatile enough to avoid that) I just have to think he'll get the right trip. Obviously for those trying to make money you'll look elsewhere, but I would love to hear some truly thoughtful opinions on him.

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 Meet Matt Shifman 
 
 

Matt Shifman has been on the Horse Racing Nation staff since 2011 and currently serves as Assistant Editor. Matt covers Aqueduct, Belmont Park, Monmouth Park, and Saratoga in his two HRN blogs Racing at the Jersey Shore and New York State of Racing.

 

Matt’s articles and tweets frequently appear in the America’s Best Racing weekly Notebook. In 2012 he became a voter in the NTRA weekly polls for the Top Thoroughbred and Top Three-Year-Old.

 

The best way to get to know Matt is to check out some of his favorite articles from the past couple years.

   

 Edison: the Travels of a Million Dollar Colt 


 A Kentucky Derby Field with Just 14 Horses


What is the Best Kentucky Derby Running Style?

 

 

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