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A New York State of Racing

2014 Kentucky Derby: Evaluating the Futures Performances

Intense Holiday Risen Star 615 X 400
Photo: Hodges Photography
 
Did you invest in the 2014 Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 2? Let's take a look at how 11 of those Future bets have performed in the two weeks since the closing date of Feb. 8.
 
Best Investments
 
Intense Holiday out performed his KDFW Pool 2 odds of 69-1 with his determined closing run to win the Risen Star at the Fair Grounds Race Course where he was 5-1. In addition he picked up 50 Road to the Derby points, which means he definitely has a place in the Derby field. Anyone that played this Todd Pletcher trainee in the Futures is entitled to have the biggest smile on their face and right now I am smiling.
 
Tapiture won the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park at odds of 5.5-1. His closing odds in Pool 2 were 38-1. This Tapit colt earned a 98 BSF for trainer Steve Asmussen. Tapiture now has 22 Derby points and, based on last year’s points, this should easily put him in the field.
 
On the same day that Pool 2 closed Candy Boy won the Robert E. Lewis at Santa Anita. In Pool 2 he closed at 32-1 and an hour or so later he was 2.3-1 when he won his Derby prep race for John Sadler and Gary Stevens.
 
Worst Investments
 
Commissioner was one of the top choices in the KDFW 2 at odds of 22-1. He had a lackluster performance to finish sixth in the Fountain of Youth on a track that was probably not to his liking. This Pletcher horse will next start away from Gulfstream Park. He will need to show a lot more at that time.
 
Rise Up the winner of last year’s Delta Jackpot was bet to 47-1 in Pool 2. In his 2014 debut in the Risen Star he finished seventh at odds of 4.3-1.
 
Matterhorn was made an individual betting interest in Pool 2 off only a November 2013 maiden victory at Aqueduct. His 10th place finish in Saturday’s star-studded OC allowance at Gulfstream did little to enhance his 63-1 Future Pool odds. This Pletcher runner now seems unlikely to make the Derby field.
 
 
With four horses amongst the 23 investment possibilities in Pool 2, it should come as no surprise that trainer Todd Pletcher had the top and bottom performers in this very difficult market to predict.
 
The other five horses that have run in the last two weeks all finished with creditable second or third place finishes and solidly remain on the Kentucky Derby trail.
 
If you bet a few dollars on the top performers you should enjoy it now because the toughest things about this investment are that there is lots of racing left to go and that it doesn't pay off until the first Saturday in May.
 
If you bet on the worst performers you have another opportunity to play the futures as KDFW Pool 3 opens on February 27 and runs until March 1. 

 

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Older Comments about 2014 Kentucky Derby: Evaluating the Futures Performances...

IMO..I would throw out the result of Gulfstream because of the track bias. I look at the effect the horses make like Top Billing. I believe that a lot of trainers like Shug is starting to monitor the bias and see if the need to ship their horse to other venues. I think he is look to send Top Billing back to NY for the Wood if Gulfstream bias doesn't change.
Why is Kristo in pool 3 and Chitu is not?
Jasen, I bet Tonalist, SM, also, along with Intense Holiday, and Candy Boy.
So much for my future on Commissioner. At least my cheese on Tonalist & Strong Mandate is alive.
Sorry, Slower pace, maybe not MUCH slower.
I liked Mexicoma's run in the allowance race at GP on Sat. His close in that race was similar to Top Billing, and Mexicoma closed into a much slower pace. I am hoping Team Valor run him at Oaklawn or Fairgrounds. get away from the speed bias trap at Gulfstream.
that should be effort and not effect^^
Biggest disappointment (for me) from the weekend Derby preps has to be Commissioner. Then again, as cold as he was on the totebaord (7-2), maybe I should not have been surprised by his effort?! I agree Matt. He needs to get out of Dodge (aka GP) and find a track that gives Closers a fighting chance. Then again, Top Billing closed ground.
Cairo Prince closed at 13-1 after opening at 8-1. If you like him and If (and I do mean if) he wins the Fla Derby i'd say a play on him in Pool 2 was a good investment because there's no way you'll get him that high on derby day.
With the exception of Rise Up, there wasn't really any entrant that I was truly excited to see in the Risen Star. Rise Up, I believe, is going to be distance limited. I am of the opinion that Intense Holiday was the best of an otherwise mediocre field. If he were to face the fields he has faced in the past, I doubt he would have come away the winner.
I won't invest in the early pools because I have no idea if half these horses will be in the gate.
I'm still not convinced that Intense Holiday fits with the best of this crop, but at 69-1 ... sure!

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Matt Shifman has been on the Horse Racing Nation staff since 2011. Matt covers Aqueduct, Belmont Park, Monmouth Park, and Saratoga in his two HRN blogs Racing at the Jersey Shore and New York State of Racing.

 

Matt’s articles and tweets frequently appear in the America’s Best Racing weekly Notebook. In 2012 he became a voter in the NTRA weekly polls for the Top Thoroughbred and Top Three-Year-Old.

 

The best way to get to know Matt is to check out some of his favorite articles from the past couple years.

   

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