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HRN Original Blog:
A New York State of Racing

2013 Kentucky Derby – New York’s Top Contenders

My New York Derby Trail list has now grown to 11 horses. These New York-based runners include seven trained by Todd Pletcher, two each sired by Dixie Union and Tapit, and three ridden by Javier Castellano. The horses are listed in order according to the Road to the Derby points. The individual profiles include a video link for each horse’s most recent race, if one is available, along with the probable next race.
Shanghai Bobby (Harlan’s Holiday)
Last race – 1st Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) – 1 mile 1/16th  – BSF 82    VIDEO BC Juvenile
Record – 5: 5-0-0 - $1,687,000
Road to the Derby points– 20 – Rank 1
Trainer – Todd Pletcher
Rider – Rosie Napravnik
Probable next race – $400,000 Holy Bull (G3), Jan. 26, Gulfstream
Shanghai Bobby will enter 2013 as the winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the leader in Road to the Derby points and money earned. On January 19, he will receive the Eclipse Award for top two year-old. Bobby is spending the winter in Todd Pletcher’s Palm Meadows barn with the goal of running in two Derby prep races.
Violence (Medaglio d’Oro)
Last race – 1st Cashcall Hollywood Futurity (G1) – 1 mile 1/16th  – BSF 92  VIDEO Cashcall Hollywood Futurity
Record – 3: 3-0-0 - $543,000
Road to the Derby points – 10 – Rank 3
Trainer – Todd Pletcher
Rider – JJ Castellano
Probable next race – $400,000 Fountain of Youth (G2) – Feb. 23 - Gulfstream
The most recent victory of Violence gives this unbeaten colt big wins on both coasts and a big plus in the experience department. His run in the Cashcall against an impressive field was one of the best of the year for juveniles.
Overanalyze (Dixie Union)
Last race – 1st Remsen (G2) – 1 mile 1/8th – BSF 99
Record – 5: 3-0-1 - $343,906
Road to the Derby points – 10 – Rank 4
Trainer – Todd Pletcher
Rider – Ramon Dominguez
Probable next race – $400,000 Gotham (G3), March 2, Aqueduct
The Remsen earned a very high Beyer Speed Figure of 99. Overanalyze has already shown that he can handle the distance of most Derby prep races, but can this son of Dixie Union handle the extra distance of the Triple Crown?
Bern Identity (Bernstein)
Last race – 2nd Delta Jackpot (G2) – 1 mile 1/16th 
Record – 6: 3-2-1 - $616,000
Road to the Derby points – 4 – Rank 10
Trainer – Kelly Breen
Rider – Paco Lopez
Probable next race – $400,000 Holy Bull (G3), Jan. 26, Gulfstream
Capo Bastone (Street Boss)
Last race – 3rd Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) – 1 mile 1/16th  
Record – 4: 1-0-2 - $288,000
Road to the Derby points – 4 – Rank 12
Trainer – Todd Pletcher
Rider – Joel Rosario
Probable next race – $150,000 Hutcheson (G2), Feb. 2, Gulfstream
Capo Bastone ran a strong race in the BC Juvenile even though he was reported to have bled badly. With Pletcher as the trainer he will no doubt run on Lasix the rest of his career. How much improvement will that mean for this colt?
Last race – 2nd Remsen (G2) – 1 mile 1/8th – BSF 99
Record – 3: 1-0-1 - $92,240
Road to the Derby points – 4 – Rank 16
Trainer – Chad Brown
Rider – Jose Lezcano
Be sure to watch the replay of the closing finish by Normandy Invasion in the highly rated Remsen and you will be reminded that this Tapit colt is one to be reckoned with in 2013.
Fortify (Distorted Humor)
Last race – 4th Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) – 1 mile 1/16th  
Record – 4: 1-1-1 - $268,000
Road to the Derby points – 3 – Rank 18
Trainer – Kiaran McLaughlin
Rider – Ramon Dominguez
Probable next race – $200,000 Withers (G3), Feb, 2, Aqueduct
Fortify reminds me of Alpha, last year’s Derby runner for Kiaran McLaughlin. Will this Distorted Humor runner get Godolphin back in the Derby in 2013?
Delhomme (Dixie Union)
Last race – 3rd Remsen (G2) – 1 mile 1/8th – BSF 96
Record – 3: 1-1-1 - $84,800
Road to the Derby points – 2 – Rank 23
Trainer – Todd Pletcher
Rider – JJ Castellano
Archwarrior (Arch)
Last race – 4th Champagne (G1) – 1 mile  VIDEO Champagne
Record – 2: 1-0-0 - $68,000
Road to the Derby points – 1 – Rank 30
Trainer – Todd Pletcher
Rider – John Velazquez
The summer’s super-hyped two year-old may have the best breeding for the Triple Crown distances.  In 2013 we will find out if he has the talent to match his pedigree and his public acclaim.
Palace Malice (Curlin)
Last race – 1st MSW – Saratoga – 6 1/2F.  
Record – 2: 1-1-0 - $62,000
Road to the Derby points – 0
Trainer – Todd Pletcher
Rider – JJ Castellano
Probable next race – allowance race, February, Gulfstream
Palace Malice came out of his August Saratoga maiden victory with sore shins. Pletcher has given him plenty of time and is eyeing an allowance race for a February return. That means he will have to do well in one of the big Derby point prep races to make the field.
Mudflats (Tapit)
Last race – 1st MSW – Aqueduct – 7F. – BSF 90
Record – 3: 1-0-1 - $47,900
Road to the Derby points – 0
Trainer – Doug O’Neill/Nick Canini
Rider – Jose Lezcano
Probable next race – $200,000 Jerome (G2), Jan. 5, Aqueduct
Team Doug O’Neill purchased Mudflats off of his speedy maiden win on a sloppy track at Aqueduct.  For now they are leaving this Tapit colt in the New York barn of Nick Canini to prep for the Derby. 


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Older Comments about 2013 Kentucky Derby – New York’s Top Contenders...

Brian... really? That makes me feel A LOT better about my selection :) What do you think about He's Had Enough & Uncaptured? I have them down too.
Seriously no Darwin???? Come on!!! He is a beast and got a 103 EQ first time out!
Footy. You are absolutely right about this list. It was enlightening, especially for horses like Man O War, Sun Beau and Citation and other old timers.
I am also a fan of Bern Identity.
Sometimes, more is less. We all remember when Nick Zito took five mounts into the Derby, and didn't hit the board. I hope Todd can stay focused on each.
there used to be a list, Buckpasser, of earnings as to what the dollar was worth at the time the horse raced. It was enlightening.
And not necessarily grade ones either.
Given the level of purses these days, I really can't put much stock in earnings these days. When few races were 100k in the 60's, Kelso's record of almost 2 million was impressive. Now two million can be obtained winning a couple of races.
Yea, Bern Identity has cashed nicely at Delta Downs.
Also an interesting fact- Bern Identity is second only to Shanghai Bobby in earnings on this list.
Your welcome. I am just so confused and I don't live anywhere close so i can't ask myself. I also doesn't help because he doesn't have an official FB page.
URR--Thanks for the info.
Well K. Breen said the FOY will be his next himself.
URR-The HRN Derby Contenders list says Holy Bull is next, but we shall see. He's not one of my top picks.
I heard Bern's next is the FOY. Where did you find out about the Holly Bull being his next?

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Matt Shifman has been on the Horse Racing Nation staff since 2011 and currently serves as Assistant Editor. Matt covers Aqueduct, Belmont Park, Monmouth Park, and Saratoga in his two HRN blogs Racing at the Jersey Shore and New York State of Racing.


Matt’s articles and tweets frequently appear in the America’s Best Racing weekly Notebook. In 2012 he became a voter in the NTRA weekly polls for the Top Thoroughbred and Top Three-Year-Old.


The best way to get to know Matt is to check out some of his favorite articles from the past couple years.


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