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HRN Original Blog:
Morning Clocker Report

Belmont 2012: Losing A Winning Race

Union Rags wins the 2012 Belmont Stakes
It is possible to ride a winning race and lose, just ask Mike Smith about this year’s Triple Crown.
 
Immediately after the Belmont, Twitter was ablaze with angry Paynter backers screaming that Mikey didn’t hit the horse right handed late and opened the rail for JohnnyV to squeak up the inside.
 
The question people forget to ask is actually rather simple: did he have the horse to get there?
 
Smith said he was out of horse at the 16th pole in the Derby. Then he just got nipped in the Preakness and looked the same today in the Belmont. The official word from the post-race press conference with JohnnyV is that Smith came out to intimidate Leparoux on Atigun and didn’t see/feel/hear Union Rags behind him. It still looked like the dark bay colt was running on fumes late.
 
People forget that it’s the rare jockey in the even rarer moment who can pick a horse up and lift it across the finish line like Laffit Pincay.
 
When a horse runs out of gas, it becomes the test of will we so often call Heart of A Champion. Zenyatta had it. So did Blind Luck. Creative Cause doesn’t. Smarty Jones did until the Belmont’s final 16th ~ that’s what separates the good horses from the great ones.
 
So should we blame Mike Smith for not beating a (proverbial) dead horse? No. We should thank him like Baffert did with Bodemeister after the Derby: he ran the best race he could, set the perfect pace, but just ran out of horse ~ and left enough in the tank that he can continue to have a successful career without needing six months off to recover.
 
This isn’t the same as Julien’s Florida Derby ride on Union Rags: that was ugly all the way around and a case of continually misjudging the space available for your horse. But the way Union Rags came on at the end proved he had the requisite amount of gas in the tank to get the job done if he’d had smooth sailing.
 
As long as we’re talking about bad rides, let’s talk about an exceptional one: I tweeted when the Belmont field was a half-mile from the wire, that it didn’t matter where Union Rags finished, JohnnyV gave him a perfect ride. Little did I realize that he would squeeze through a hole only Mike Smith would dare to try (see Mr. Commons’ Sir Beaufort if you don’t believe me) and get the win in a race where no one believed he could get the distance.
 
This Triple Crown has seen Hall of Fame riders Mike Smith and John Velazquez school the younger guys in the room about how to ride big races. With the retirement of Bailey, Stevens, Day, Pincay, and Delahoussaye over the last ten years, the big question became: who would fill their journeyman shoes? I think we now know.

- Molly Jo Rosen 

 

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Older Comments about Belmont 2012: Losing A Winning Race...

Personally, I saw nothing wrong with Mike Smith's rides other than drifting off the rail in the Belmont. However, if he didn't have enough horse left, it's really no wonder he drifted off the rail, whether or not the immediate intention was to intimidate Atigun.
Rubbish ALONE on the lead is the BEST thing in ANY race on dirt, ANYWHERE
I respectfully disagree with your assessment of the Florida Derby. Union Rags was purposely trapped inside and when room opened gave a great stretch run but ran out of track. As for MS I think his rides in the Preakness and Belmont were perfect and the particular horses he was on gave all they had but came up short a little. What I did like was this statement " So should we blame Mike Smith for not beating a (proverbial) dead horse?" Maybe I'm over sensitive after watching Calvin beat that poor filly half to death. I wish I could get over that but I can't.
Baffert said he lost a hind shoe late in the race.
I was so pissed I had a typo with my favorite 3 yo's name. Oh well, I won't be commenting on this writer's blogs any more, any way.
  • mollyjorosen · Creative Cause is a super talented horse ~ please don't get me wrong ~ I've loved him since the day he stepped foot on the track. My issue is that when he gets into prime position to level off and pull clear, he hasn't in his last few races. I'm desperate to see him do it again because I know he can ~ he just has to prove it. · 801 days ago
Molly Jo... This is great !!!
I checked... It is one of the slowest Belmonts of all time. I only went back to 1970, but there are only maybe 10 other 2:30+ times.
Mike Smith rode a brilliant ride, 23 first quarter..slowed the half to 49 and almost 1:15 for 6f..That horse wouldn't have had a chance without Mike Smith I gotta check but it has to be one of the slowest Belmonts of all time.
Creative Caused doesn't? Based off of one race? Hasta.

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Meet Bruno & Molly
 
Bruno DeJulio and Molly Jo Rosen have a lifetime of experience in the Thoroughbred industry.
 
Together, they run the Post Parade companies: from a successful racing syndicate and bloodstock business to a popular podcast. Both are heavily involved with Grade1Racing (the tools to make you a better bettor!), as Bruno is the Chief Clocker and Molly Jo the Community Coordinator.
 
Separately, Bruno has been a workout analyst and owner/breeder for over 20 years and is the author of “Bruno on Workouts: Exposing the Mystery” ~ the only book to take handicappers and fans inside the world of workouts. He also offers a daily analysis of racing across the country at Racingwithbruno.com.
 
Molly Jo has been involved with racing from coast to coast: from TVG and Churchill Downs to Smarty Jones’ personal assistant to managing a major New York racing operation. She serves her blend of pony punditry at Focused Filly.