The colts have been stealing the headlines left and right
this year as they make their preparations for the Kentucky Derby and prove that
this is one of the most constant and talented crops to pursue classic dreams in
quite some time. Sometimes the fillies tend to get shuffled into the background
a bit as Derby fever begins to boil over, but from the moment My Miss Aurelia
won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr.1) in an absolute waltz to remain
undefeated last year, the fillies have been consistently proving that last year’s
crop is still going strong. The 2012 Kentucky Oaks promises to have a field almost
as exciting and dynamic as the Derby this year and if not for the fact that
juvenile champion My Miss Aurelia is still sidelined with a shin issue and for
the loss of both Now I Know and Weemissfrankie, the Kentucky Oaks would be
garnering a lot more attention right now. As it stands now, the Oaks still has a multitude
of talented fillies pursuing the coveted wreath of lilies and for the first
time this year, the Novel Nine is finally back.
1. Millionreasonswhy – Millionreasonswhy as the number one
choice might surprise some people, especially seeing as she hasn’t really been
in the public’s eye since last August when she ran against My Miss Aurelia in
the Adirondack at Saratoga. There are a few reasons why this Grand Slam filly
takes the top spot. First, she gave My Miss Aurelia the toughest race of her
life in the Adirondack, losing by just a neck after battling the entire length
of the stretch and the last ¼ of the final turn while finishing more than 14
lengths ahead of the third place finisher. Second, her pedigree is absolute
gold when it comes to classic influence and speed, tracing back to Mr.
Prospector through her sire Grand Slam and having A. P. Indy as her grandsire
through her dam In Secure. Third, she came back from an extended break after
the Adirondack on March 3rd to win the Wide Country Stakes at Laurel
by 1 ¼ lengths in a breathtaking hand ride. It was more than 12 lengths back to
third place. Her next start could come in the 1 mile Comely Stakes (gr.3) at
Aqueduct where she will most likely face undefeated Agave Kiss.
2. Grace Hall – Grace Hall went from maiden to Grade 1
winner in the first two starts of her career when she won the Spinaway Stakes
(gr.1) at Saratoga last September. After capturing the Blue Hen Stakes by more
than 5 lengths in an effortless hand ride, the Empire Maker filly finished a
clear and distinguished second to My Miss Aurelia in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Fillies (gr.1). She finished a game second by neck to Yara in the Davona Dale
(gr.2) at Gulfstream Park in her debut this year after taking the lead early
from Yara and then losing it again at the head of the stretch. Her next start
is a planned run in the Gulfstream Oaks (gr.2) on March 31st where
she will undoubtedly run a much sharper race and a return to the winners circle
seems more than likely. She has the looks, the talent and the experience to go
the whole nine yards.
3. Broadway’s Alibi – I would love to have Broadway’s Alibi
listed at number one right now but there has been very little word on what her future
plans are and only one listed work since her last race. Those facts aside,
Broadway’s Alibi is quite possibly the most talented filly on this entire list.
After finishing a solid second in her debut the Vindication filly ran away with
her maiden by 7 lengths in what the official chart notes was only a “mild drive”.
She next captured an allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream Park by 5
lengths after leading through hot early fractions and taking the final turn
very wide. It was the Forward Gal Stakes (gr.2) on January 29th that
really set Broadway’s Alibi apart from the crowd. After running an opening
quarter of :22.35 and a blistering half in :44.94 over Gulfstream’s sloppy
track, Broadway’s Alibi cornered the turn nicely for the first time in her
career and exploded down the stretch to win going away by 16 ¾ lengths. It
could have been 20 or more it was that easy. Trainer Todd Pletcher gave his
star a long break after the Forward Gal but she returned to the work tab on March
10th with a bullet :47.77 half mile move. Her inactivity is the only
thing that has her being held out of the top two.
4. Eden’s Moon – Bob Baffert almost always comes up with an
exciting Derby and Oaks prospect each year and 2012 is no different. Eden’s
Moon was favored over Reenesgotzip in their maiden race but finished second
best to that one before going on to capture her maiden race one month later by
almost 12 lengths at Santa Anita Park after setting an easy pace on the front
end. She made her next start in the Grade 1 Las Virgenes where she once again
faced Reneesgotzip. Once again the Malibu Moon filly took the lead over
Reneesgotzip shortly after coming out of the gate and maintained her advantage
until challenged by Reneesgotzip coming in the homestretch. Roused by jockey
Martin Gacria, Eden’s Moon easily repelled her rivals bid and went on to win
the Las Virgenes by 3 ¼ lengths in just her third lifetime start. There is a
lot of room for improvement in this filly and she is in the best possible hands
to make the most of her potential. Next up is a run in the Santa Anita Oaks
(gr.1) where she could face the promising Princess Arabella.
5. Princess Arabella – If you look at just margins of
victory as the deciding factor in your Kentucky Oaks contender rankings,
chances are Princess Arabella won’t rank that high. In just two career starts
the Bob Baffert trained Any Given Saturday filly has shown stunning talent and
professionalism, winning both starts. She broke her maiden by 3 ½ lengths in a
hand ride, responding like a champ to the subtle guidance of jockey Martin
Garcia. On February 12th she posted an identical 3 ½ length margin of
victory and made an absolute mockery of the small field, once again winning in
a hand ride but this time geared down to what appeared to be an easy canter.
The level of talent that she displays is astounding and the ease of her two
victories is nothing short of spectacular. If she faces Eden’s Moon in the
Santa Anita Oaks on March 31st I think Eden’s Moon will have her
work cut out for her trying to beat this filly.
6. On Fire Baby – In the last article I wrote I said that On
Fire Baby should be at least in the top three if she is pointed for the
Kentucky Oaks, but as soon as I began researching in earnest the fillies
pointing towards the Oaks, I didn’t feel the same way. On Fire Baby has won
four of her six lifetime starts and all but one of her four juvenile races, the
only exception coming when she finished a tiring 5th in the Darley Alcibiades
Stakes behind Stephanie’s Kitten on Keeneland’s polytrack. She began the year
with a decent third place showing against a weak field of males in the Smarty
Jones Stakes and then showed her class when returned to race against the
fillies in the Honeybee Stakes (gr.3), a race she captured with relative ease
by 2 lengths over Amie’s Dini.
7. Amie’s Dini – Amie’s Dini broke her maiden at first
asking last October before finishing 3rd in an Allowance race. She
came back to win another allowance race by more than 6 lengths and proceeded on
to the Dixie Bell Stakes where she gave the undefeated Delta Downs Princess
Stakes (gr.3) winner Now I Know a run for her money and ultimately finished a
game second. Next out Amie’s Dini turned the tables on Now I Know in the Martha
Washington Stakes, winning by 1 ¾ lengths with ease. Sadly Now I Know exited the
Martha Washington with a fracture in her right front knee and was retired
shortly after. That made some people think Amie’s Dini won only because Now I
Know was unable to run her best race but I think the fact that Amie’s Dini ran
so well once again in the Honeybee Stakes, finishing second to On Fire Baby by
2 lengths after fighting that one tooth and nail the entire length of the
stretch, proves that she is a good filly on the improve. One excellent characteristic
she has demonstrated is her ability to improve off tough losses by coming back
with a big winning performance in her next race.
8. Yara – Yara has posted an interesting career record thus
far;4th place, 1st place, 4th place, 1st
place, 4th place, 1st place. She finished 4th
in her debut, then returned less than a month later to break her maiden by more
than 5 lengths. She then finished 4th in the Cassidy Stakes at
Calder before winning the Joe O’Farrell Juvenile Stakes by 5 ¼ lengths to
finish out her juvenile campaign. Her 2012 campaign began with a 4th
place thrashing delivered by Broadway’s Alibi in the Forward Gal Stakes (gr.2)
where she finished more than 20 lengths behind the winner. She bounced back
from that performance to register a huge win over Kentucky Oaks early favorite
Grace Hall in the Grade 2 Davona Dale Stakes after taking the lead by a neck
over the favorite and holding that advantage all the way down to the wire. No
word as to where she might run next but I’m willing to bet she won’t be
finishing 4th again unless something goes wrong.
9. Reneesgotzip – Reneesgotzip lost her flashy undefeated
status when she was easily repelled by Eden’s Moon in the Grade 1 Las Virgenes,
but certainly lost very little respect. She broke her maiden by more than two
lengths in mid-December when defeating Eden’s Moon and returned one month later
to make a laughing stock of the Santa Ynez Stakes (gr.2) field, wining by more
than 7 lengths in wire to wire fashion. She blew the first turn very badly in
the Las Virgenes, going at least ten paths wide before jockey Corey Nakatani
was able to angle her back towards the pack and settle her into a close second behind
Eden’s Moon. She launched a strong rally into the stretch and appeared to
momentarily take the lead before Eden’s Moon waltzed away to an easy win. This
filly might not appreciate being stretched past 1 mile or 1 1/16 miles but she’s
been very classy so far and didn’t show her best in the Las Virgenes. I’m
willing to bet she’ll come back with stronger run next time out.
It’s always hard to narrow down a list of 20 plus fillies to
just 9 that look the best. Fillies like Stephanie’s Kitten, who is eyeing a
potential Kentucky Oaks run starting in the Ashland Stakes (gr.1), and
Stopshoppingmaria and Sweet Seventeen all have good cases to make if they turn
in strong performances within the next few weeks.