Photo: Eclipse Sportswire

Wow!  You could hear the collective sigh of relief when all the other connections of potential Kentucky Derby starters watched Uncle Mo get defeated in the Wood by a couple of over achievers.  Some say Velasquez should have just siezed control coming into the stretch and put some distance between Uncle Mo and his nearest rivals.  Do we really believe that would have made a difference?  I don’t think so.  What was all telling to me was picking up the Wood Memorial BRIS Pace and Speed Ratings for Uncle Mo coming out of that race.

Uncle Mo         1^st Call = 89;    2^nd Call = 97;    Late Pace = 91;    Final = 96

Going back to last year’s HRN Kentucky Derby Super Screener book, let’s compare that line to the final preps for other forwardly placed types that have won the Kentucky Derby:

Silver Charm  1^st Call = 108;  2^nd Call = 115;  Late Pace = 84;    Final = 102

War Emblem  1^st Call = 95;    2^nd Call = 105;  Late Pace = 107;   Final = 109

Funnycide      1^st Call = 97;    2^nd Call = 110;  Late Pace = 106;   Final = 111

Big Brown      1^st Call = 107;  2^nd Call = 117;  Late Pace = 98;     Final = 110

Yikes!  Not even close.  I can tell you right now that even if Uncle Mo were to improve off that last effort, he would have to do so by at least 10 lengths AND get an extra 1/8^th mile while battling the likes of The Factor through grueling fractions.  I just don’t see it.  When this year’s HRN Kentucky Derby Super Screener is published (coming next week!)  I don’t think Uncle Mo will even make the second tier status.  Did he run his lifetime best in the Breeders Cup Juvenile?  Uncle Mo was finally tested in the Wood and lost.

On the other coast, Midnight Interlude fooled a lot of people including me with a surprise victory in the Santa Anita Derby.  With Premier Pegasus and Jaycito, California’s #1 and #2 seeds, respectively, out of the race, this one was reduced to a mediocre prep at best.  I guess none of us should be surprised that a recent Maiden winner popped up to beat a lone lead horse, Comma To The Top, that set very weak fractions and still couldn’t manage to hang on for the win.  Before we get too excited about this one, Joe Vann, winner of the Illinois Derby actually ran a better race than both Midnight Interlude AND Uncle Mo BRIS numbers wise.  And, Joe Vann isn’t even nominated to the Kentucky Derby.

Personally, I think it is great that we are going into the Kentucky Derby with so many question marks.  In addition, I think the winner of the Derby has yet to run his final prep!  Santiva anyone?

Let’s take a look at each of the four weekend preps and determine how the outcomes affected our HRN Derby Prep Quality Ratings:

Aqueduct – G1 Wood Memorial 1 1/8 miles

Winner: Toby’s Corner (RANKED #11 – HRN DERBY CONTENDERS)

Beyer Speed Rating: 94

BRIS Pace/Final Pars:  First Call = 96; Second Call = 107; Final = 107

Actual Pace/Final:         First Call = 89; Second Call = 97;   Final = 97

Track Bias: None

Tough Trips: None

Impressive Effort: Toby’s Corner

HRN Pre-Race Grade = B-

HRN Post-Race Grade = B-

Notes: Very disappointing final prep for Uncle Mo.  Yea, he grabbed a quarter but that can’t explain the fact that he set anemic fractions and had no punch.  He’s “human” after all.  Toby’s Corner came back to run a big one.  Second tier Derby contender at this point.

Santa Anita – G1 Santa Anita Derby 1 1/8 miles

Winner: Midnight Interlude (RANKED #3 – HRN DERBY CONTENDERS)

Beyer Speed Rating: 95

BRIS Pace/Final Pars:  First Call = 96; Second Call = 107; Final = 107

Actual Pace/Final:         First Call = 84; Second Call = 88;  Final = 98

Track Bias: None

Tough Trips: Indian Winter (his own worst enemy)

Impressive Effort: Midnight Interlude

HRN Pre-Race Grade = B+

HRN Post-Race Grade = C+

Notes: With Premier Pegasus and Jaycito out of the race, this one came up pretty weak.  It was clear Comma To The Top would have it all his own way and he did setting very slow fractions on the way to a narrow defeat.  Midnight Interlude impressed on two fronts…jumped up from MDN to take down a G1 race and overcame a dawdling pace to display a late turn of foot that impressed.

Hawthorne– G3 Illinois Derby 1 1/8 miles

Winner: Joe Vann (RANKED #175 – HRN DERBY CONTENDERS)

Beyer Speed Rating: 93 (

BRIS Pace/Final Pars:  First Call = 92; Second Call = 100; Final = 100

Actual Pace/Final:         First Call = 90; Second Call = 92;   Final = 93

Track Bias: None

Tough Trips: None

Impressive Effort: None

HRN Pre-Race Grade = D

HRN Post-Race Grade = D

Notes: Joe Vann isn’t nominated to Derby and Watch Me Go disappointed as the favorite.  Not much else to report on this prep that will have no impact on the Derby outcome.

Aqueduct – G3 Bay Shore Stakes 7 furlongs

Winner: J J’s Lucky Train (RANKED #4 – HRN DERBY CONTENDERS)

Beyer Speed Rating: 97

BRIS Pace/Final Pars:  First Call = 98; Second Call = 107; Final = 104

Actual Pace/Final:         First Call = 91; Second Call = 93;  Final = 100

Track Bias: None

Tough Trips: Justin Phillip

Impressive Effort: J J’s Lucky Train

HRN Pre-Race Grade = D

HRN Post-Race Grade = D+

Notes: I was impressed with J J’s Lucky Train’s performance in this race.  He didn’t get a hot pace yet he really turned it on late to capture a gutsy win.  No Derby impact here but a nice horse to consider for sprints and one-turn mile stakes in the future.

You have to see the amazing offer that DISH is offering to Horse Racing Nation fans.  Check out the ad on our home page.  Get 80 tracks in your living room, NOW!  It's like having your own simulcast center without ever leaving your house ! Incredible!!!  Don’t miss all the final Derby preps action.

Check back on Friday when we preview the Arkansas Derby and perhaps the new Kentucky Derby favorite The Factor.  In addition, we’ll see if Santiva belongs in the gate come Derby day after his performance in the Blue Grass Stakes.

Coming soon, you’ll get your chance to order this year’s Kentucky Derby Super Screener only from your friends at Horse Racing Nation.

GO FAST AND WIN!