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HRN Original Blog:
KentuckyDerbySuperScreener

The Final Prep Grades Are In!

The final Kentucky Derby 2011 Prep Grades are in - and it's time to see which races ranked at the head of the class and which ones failed!  A total of 26 prep races have letter grades from A to D, and everywhere in between!  See which ones blew the curve and that ones that dropped down the average. 

Sorting out the best prep races from the worst is the first step in our Kentucky Derby Super Screener - where we screen out the pretenders so you can focus in on the contenders and those monster Kentucky Derby payoffs! 
 

  Arkansas Derby = A   Louisiana Derby = C-   Tampa Bay Derby = D+


Prep Races - Ranked by Super Screener Grade


Click on each letter grade to go to the blog post, analysis and video for that race.  Click on the race name for the full order of finish and video.  

Date Track Distance Race Grade Beyer  BRIS 1st 
4/16/2011   OP 1 1/8 m Arkansas Derby-G1 A 98 97  Archarcharch
4/3/2011   GP 1 1/8 m Florida Derby-G1 A- 93 100  Dialed In
3/19/2011   OP 1 1/16 m Rebel-G2 A- 103 105 The Factor
3/12/2011   SA 1 1/16 m San Felipe-G2 B+ 96 100  Premier Pegasus
2/20/2011   SA 7f San Vicente-G2 B+ 102 104  The Factor
1/30/2011   GP 1 mile Holy Bull-G3 B+ 97 104 Dialed In
4/16/2011   Kee 1 1/8 m Blue Grass-G1 B 93 99  Brilliant Speed
3/12/2011   GP 1 mile Timely Writer B 89 95  Uncle Mo
2/26/2011   GP 1 1/8 m Fountain of Youth-G2 B 96 102  Soldat
2/19/2011   FG 1 1/16 m Risen Star-G2 B 94 97  Mucho Macho Man
4/9/2011   Aqu 1 1/8 m Wood Memorial-G1 B- 94 97  Toby's Corner
4/9/2011   SA 1 1/8 m Santa Anita Derby-G1 C+ 95 98  Midnight Interlude
3/26/2011   TP 1 1/8 m Spiral-G3 C+ 91 97 Animal Kingdom
2/26/2011   GP 7f Hutcheson Stakes-G2 C+ 102 108  Flashpoint
2/12/2011   SA 1 1/8 m Robert B. Lewis-G2 C 90 93  Anthony's Cross
3/26/2011   FG 1 1/8 m Louisiana Derby-G2 C- 94 97 Pants On Fire
2/21/2011   OP 7f Southwest-G3 C- 89 93  Archarcharch
3/12/2011   Tam 1 1/16 m Tampa Bay Derby-G3 D+ 83 95  Watch Me Go
3/5/2011   AQ 1 1/16 m Gotham Stakes-G3 D+ 89  95 Stay Thirsty
2/5/2011   Aqu 1 1/16 m Whirlaway D+ 88 103 Toby's Corner
4/9/2011   Aqu 7f Bay Shore-G3 D+ 97 100  J J's Lucky Train
4/9/2011   Haw 1 1/8 m Illinois Derby-G3 D 93 93  Joe Vann
3/27/2011   Sun 1 1/8 m Sunland Derby-G3 D 89 95  Twice The Appeal
3/26/2011   TP 1 1/16 m Rushaway D 89 94 Swift Warrior
2/12/2011   GG 1 1/8 m El Camino Real Derby-G3 D 93 91  Silver Medallion
2/12/2011   Tam 1 1/16 m Sam F. Davis-G3 D 83 94  Brethren

 

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Older Comments about The Final Prep Grades Are In! ...

Earlier this year I believed that the Arkansas horses were a grade below, but as of now I tend to agree with your high markings for the Rebel and Ark. Derby. Note that the Southwest Stakes (Arch won) was a flat mile - OP does not card 7f races.
how bout the UAE Derby ??????????????????????????
I have to admit I quit reading when I saw a B next to Timely Writer, Uncle Mo's public workout!
I agree, Brian. I had to go back to my post-race blog notes to see why I downgraded this prep from a B+ to C+ HRN Post-Race Grade = C+ Notes: With Premier Pegasus and Jaycito out of the race, this one came up pretty weak. It was clear Comma To The Top would have it all his own way and he did setting very slow fractions on the way to a narrow defeat. Midnight Interlude impressed on two fronts…jumped up from MDN to take down a G1 race and overcame a dawdling pace to display a late turn of foot that impressed. Midnight Interlude did stand out in a mediocre field. I think right now I have him around 5th on my personal Derby list.
Only a C+ for the Santa Anita Derby? Do not dismiss Midnight Interlude, Mike.
A- for Florida Derby? it was a very slow time for that race and he barely beat at long, longshot. C- minus for LA Derby don't agree with that one either. Oh well, I'm not perfect either.

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About Me

Mike has been a passionate horseracing fan for over 30 years. He received his “handicapping education” through countless hours of deciphering the mystery that is embedded in every race. It was the tough beats at the window, however, that propelled him to never make the same mistake twice (well, maybe three times).

As Managing Partner of Horse Racing Nation, Mike serves as investor, business advisor, staff handicapper and developer of handicapping content.

Handicapping the Derby has always been one of Mike's favorite endeavors.  He spends weeks compiling notes, speed figures and analysis in preparation for the big race.  In 2010, his HRN pals pushed him into packaging his time-tested methods into what became the 2010 Kentucky Derby Super Screener, an e-book that became extremely popular with HRN readers and was downloaded over 3,000 times.   

In preparation for the 2011 Derby, Mike will be "Rating the Preps" each weekend on the Derby trail.  The goal will be to build a good picture for which prep races are most likely to produce the 2011 Kentucky Derby winner.