With the second to last Kentucky Derby prep under his belt, The Factor posted an effort in the Rebel Stakes that draws striking similarities to the second to last prep races of both Big Brown and Fusiachi Pegasus!  While these Kentucky Derby winners did not share The Factor’s wire-to-wire running style, they both were presser types that were part of the early pace in their preps.  Going back to our exclusive Kentucky Derby Super Screener, check out these pace and final speed ratings for the preps leading up to the Derby for Big Brown, Fusiachi Pegasus and The Factor.

A very interesting pattern emerges when we compare these runners.  The Factor’s Rebel Stakes pace and speed ratings are nearly identical to that of Big Brown’s second to last prep race going a mile at Gulfstream Park.  And, while Fusiaichi Pegasus went a bit swifter early on in the San Felipe Stakes, The Factor posted superior 2^nd Call, Late Pace and Final Speed Ratings in his Rebel Stakes effort.

Now, look at the numbers both eventual Derby winners posted in their final preps.  This gives us a very useful benchmark for what we need to see The Factor produce if he has any chance of being considered a legitimate Derby contender.  Since he is a wire-to-wire type, a running style that has not yielded many Derby winners (and typically only if the Derby pace was soft), we need to be even more demanding about the figures he puts up in the Arkansas Derby.  According to our Kentucky Derby Super Screener, speed types have to post 1^st Call and 2^nd Call pace numbers of 105+ and 115+ respectively, to have a shot at winning the Kentucky Derby much like Big Brown did on his way to Derby glory.

Now, remember, it is not “what” pace and speed ratings horses have run in the their final preps it is “how” they earned those pace and speed ratings that separates contenders from pretenders.  Besides energy distribution profile, The Factor differs from Big Brown and Fusiachi Pegasus in another important way.  The Derby winners earned their pace figures while battling with others early on.  The Factor has been able to secure a lone lead in each of his three victories.  To date, he has not been fire tested by contesting the early lead with a fellow rival.  He may not get that opportunity in the Arkansas Derby if no other true speedster shows up.  But, you can count on relentless pressure in the Kentucky Derby if the likes of Uncle Mo and Flashpoint have anything to say about it.  It’s sure getting interesting isn’t it?

Alright let’s take a closer look at the Rebel Stakes and update our quality rating:

 Oaklawn Park – The Rebel Stakes 1 1/16 miles

Winner: The Factor (RANKED #5 – HRN DERBY CONTENDERS)

Beyer Speed Rating: 103

BRIS Pace/Final Pars:  First Call = 94; Second Call = 104; Final = 104

Actual Pace/Final:         First Call = 95; Second Call = 109;  Final = 105

Track Bias: None

Tough Trips: Sway Away encountered trouble early and was taken out of his game

Impressive Effort: None

HRN Pre-Race Grade = B+

HRN Post-Race Grade = A-

Notes: Not The Factor’s fault he had no takers on pushing him early.  He did what he was supposed to do, proved he can go 1 1/16 and turned on the after burners when challenged coming for home.  He moves forward again.  Really want to see him tested in the Arkansas Derby to become a believer.

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Check back on Friday when we preview the Louisiana Derby and the Spiral Stakes.  Coming soon, you’ll get your chance to order this year’s Kentucky Derby Super Screener only from your friends at Horse Racing Nation.

GO FAST AND WIN!

Mike