second to last Kentucky Derby prep
under his belt, The Factor posted an
effort in the Rebel Stakes that
draws striking similarities to the second to last prep races of both Big Brown and Fusiachi Pegasus! While
these Kentucky Derby winners did not
share The Factor’s wire-to-wire
running style, they both were presser types that were part of the early pace in
their preps. Going back to our
exclusive Kentucky Derby Super
Screener, check out these pace and final speed ratings for the preps
leading up to the Derby for Big Brown,
Fusiachi Pegasus and The Factor.
BRIS PACE/FINAL SPEED RATINGS
Call Late Pace Final Speed
A very interesting pattern emerges when we compare these
runners. The Factor’s Rebel Stakes pace and speed ratings are
nearly identical to that of Big Brown’s
second to last prep race going a mile at Gulfstream Park. And, while Fusiaichi Pegasus went a bit swifter early on in the San Felipe Stakes, The Factor posted superior 2nd Call, Late Pace and Final
Speed Ratings in his Rebel Stakes
Now, look at the numbers both eventual Derby winners posted
in their final preps. This gives
us a very useful benchmark for what we need to see The Factor produce if he has any chance of being considered a
legitimate Derby contender. Since
he is a wire-to-wire type, a running style that has not yielded many Derby
winners (and typically only if the Derby pace was soft), we need to be even
more demanding about the figures he puts up in the Arkansas Derby.
According to our Kentucky Derby Super Screener, speed types have to
post 1st Call and 2nd Call pace numbers of 105+ and 115+
respectively, to have a shot at winning the Kentucky Derby much like Big
Brown did on his way to Derby glory.
Now, remember, it is not
“what” pace and speed ratings horses have run in the their final preps it
is “how” they earned those pace and
speed ratings that separates contenders from pretenders. Besides energy distribution profile, The Factor differs from Big Brown and Fusiachi Pegasus in another important way. The Derby winners earned their pace
figures while battling with others early on. The Factor has
been able to secure a lone lead in each of his three victories. To date, he has not been fire tested by
contesting the early lead with a fellow rival. He may not get that opportunity in the Arkansas Derby if no other true speedster shows up. But, you can count on relentless
pressure in the Kentucky Derby if
the likes of Uncle Mo and Flashpoint have anything to say about
it. It’s sure getting interesting
let’s take a closer look at the Rebel
Stakes and update our quality rating:
Park – The Rebel Stakes 1 1/16 miles
Winner: The Factor (RANKED #5 – HRN DERBY CONTENDERS)
Pace/Final Pars: First Call = 94; Second Call = 104; Final = 104
Pace/Final: First Call = 95; Second Call = 109; Final = 105
Track Bias: None
Trips: Sway Away encountered
trouble early and was taken out of his game
HRN Pre-Race Grade = B+
Post-Race Grade = A-
Notes: Not The Factor’s fault he had
no takers on pushing him early. He
did what he was supposed to do, proved he can go 1 1/16 and turned on the after
burners when challenged coming for home.
He moves forward again.
Really want to see him tested in the Arkansas Derby to become a
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Don’t miss all the final Derby preps action.
on Friday when we preview the Louisiana Derby and the Spiral Stakes. Coming soon, you’ll get your chance to
order this year’s Kentucky Derby Super
Screener only from your friends at Horse Racing Nation.
FAST AND WIN!