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HRN Original Blog:
KentuckyDerbySuperScreener

Super Screener Derby Recap

 

What a great Kentucky Derby From a betting standpoint, it was really tough race to cash in on. The Super Screener recommendations were spot on with most every opinion!

 

Top picks to win -

Normandy Invasion(4th), Orb(1st), Goldencents, Mylute(5th)

In a 19-horse field, the screener's top four picks ran 1st, 4th and 5th! In addition, the Screener's 5th pick was Revolutionary, who ran third. In total, with the top five picks, the Screener correctly identified four of the horses who ran in the top five.  

 

 

Verrazano was a bad favorite = Correct

The screener correctly identified the undefeated and 4-1 morning line horse Verrazano as a bad favorite as noted in this article Derby week. The Todd Pletcher 3-year-old would eventually go off at 8-1, as the fourth choice in the 19-horse field, but he was an important toss-out to help build winning tickets.  

 

 

Mylute was a live longshot = Correct

We really thought we put our necks out in this Derby week video by saying that the unheralded Mylute was a live longshot to hit the board and possibly win. Mylute sat back behind Orb and did get a wide trip, but Rosie rode him for all her life to just fall a couple heads short of third and only a little over a length out of second. Mylute was also six lengths ahead of sixth place so it was really the top five that separated themselves from the pack.  

 

 

Golden Soul was our top bomber to hit the board = Correct

Lining up the Super Screener rankings (below), the Screener ranked Golden Soul as our top Superfecta bomber!!! We just should have ranked him even higher!

 

Consider this: Of the 19 Derby runners, there were 13 longshots of 15-1 or higher. The Super Screener identified Mylute as the top longshot win contender, and Golden Soul as the top Superfecta bomber, and then they run a narrow 5th and 2nd.

 

Still, the Trifecta was tough to hit. The $6,925 for $2 payout amounts to about a 4,300-1 shot (factoring out takeout).

 

 

 

# Horse Win Place Show
16 Orb (5-1) 12.80 7.40 5.40
4 Golden Soul (34-1) 38.60 19.40
3 Revolutionary (6-1) 5.40

 

 

 

 

$2 Exacta (16-4) $981.60

$2 Trifecta (16-4-3) $6,925.60

$2 Superfecta (16-4-3-5) $57,084

 

So, before we overanalyze things, let’s take a look at the final screener picks:

 

  Some of our readers combined the Super Screener recommendations to make their own tickets and arrive at some great scores and some near misses, too:  

 
 

 

An exciting Derby it was - and now it's on to the Preakness!!! Mike and the Horse Racing Nation team    

 

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Older Comments about Super Screener Derby Recap...

1st 3rd & 4th were the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd favorites right? If I do recall correctly.
Make sure you post this one...Oh super screener, we were all so close, but not cigar. LOL
Failing to see where the super screener implied golden soul would finish 2nd. Guarantee super screener didn't have those exotics.
I just played Orb Top and Bottom and wheeled the Tri all 3 places with him win place and show also
 
 
 

About Me

Mike has been a passionate horseracing fan for over 30 years. He received his “handicapping education” through countless hours of deciphering the mystery that is embedded in every race. It was the tough beats at the window, however, that propelled him to never make the same mistake twice (well, maybe three times).

As Managing Partner of Horse Racing Nation, Mike serves as investor, business advisor, staff handicapper and developer of handicapping content.

Handicapping the Derby has always been one of Mike's favorite endeavors.  He spends weeks compiling notes, speed figures and analysis in preparation for the big race.  In 2010, his HRN pals pushed him into packaging his time-tested methods into what became the 2010 Kentucky Derby Super Screener, an e-book that became extremely popular with HRN readers and was downloaded over 3,000 times.   

In preparation for the 2011 Derby, Mike will be "Rating the Preps" each weekend on the Derby trail.  The goal will be to build a good picture for which prep races are most likely to produce the 2011 Kentucky Derby winner.   


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