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HRN Original Blog:
KentuckyDerbySuperScreener

Stay Thirsty -- Does he belong?

This past Saturday’s Kentucky Derby prep action was rather light with just the G3 Gotham stakes on tap.  It featured Uncle Mo’s stablemate, Stay Thirsty’s 2011 debut and the potential 4th victory in a row for up and comer, Toby’s Corner.

 

The battle was billed to be between odds-on favorite Stay Thirsty and second choice, Toby’s Corner on a fast track that played fair all day long.  Well, it didn’t quite work out that way as Stay Thirsty was in command throughout and drew away from the field nearing the wire under some handling.  Meanwhile, Toby’s Corner’s temper flared again as he fought his pilot early on before finally settling down.

 

The pace was abysmally slow so this race came down to which horse would have the best turn of foot late in the going.  Stay Thirsty overcame the slow pace best of all.

 

It appears that as Uncle Mo preps for the Wood Memorial this weekend, stablemate Stay Thirsty will be pointed to the Florida Derby for his next and final prep.  Going to have to really make an impact in that prep to show he belongs.  Connections of Toby’s Corner were disappointed and are considering a few possibilities for their charge including the Louisiana Derby.

  

Here’s our post-race evaluation for the G3 Gotham Stakes

 

AQUEDUCT G3 GOTHAM STAKES 1 1/16 Miles Dirt

Winner: Stay Thirsty (RANKED #19 – HRN DERBY CONTENDERS)

Beyer Speed Rating: 89

BRIS Pace/Final Pars:  First Call = 92; Second Call = 100; Final = 100

Actual Pace/Final:         First Call = 75; Second Call =   86;  Final = 95

Track Bias: None

Tough Trips: Nacho Saint broke slow and was ran out or room late on the rail.

Impressive Effort: None

HRN Pre-Race Grade = C-

HRN Post-Race Grade = D+

Notes:  This was a useful, shake-the-rust-off, prep for Stay Thirsty but overall, it was one of the weaker Derby preps run thus far.  With the slow pace, 1 1/16th distance and unimpressive figures, we are downgrading this prep race to a D+.

 

 

Are you a big Uncle Mo fan?  Are you just warming up to this monster of race horse? Check out our “Show us your Uncle Mo-Jo” contest running this weekend.  Click this link for more details contest page.  

 

You have to see the amazing offer that DISH is offering to Horse Racing Nation fans.  Check out the ad on our home page.  Get 80 tracks in your living room, NOW!  It's like having your own simulcast center without ever leaving your house (and much better food)! Incredible!!!

 

Check back on Friday when we preview the G3 Tampa Bay Derby, G2 San Felipe Stakes, the GP Timely Writer and FG Grindstone.  Huge weekend of racing!

 

GO FAST AND WIN!

 

Mike

 

 

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About Me

Mike has been a passionate horseracing fan for over 30 years. He received his “handicapping education” through countless hours of deciphering the mystery that is embedded in every race. It was the tough beats at the window, however, that propelled him to never make the same mistake twice (well, maybe three times).

As Managing Partner of Horse Racing Nation, Mike serves as investor, business advisor, staff handicapper and developer of handicapping content.

Handicapping the Derby has always been one of Mike's favorite endeavors.  He spends weeks compiling notes, speed figures and analysis in preparation for the big race.  In 2010, his HRN pals pushed him into packaging his time-tested methods into what became the 2010 Kentucky Derby Super Screener, an e-book that became extremely popular with HRN readers and was downloaded over 3,000 times.   

In preparation for the 2011 Derby, Mike will be "Rating the Preps" each weekend on the Derby trail.  The goal will be to build a good picture for which prep races are most likely to produce the 2011 Kentucky Derby winner.