No doubt about it, all eyes will be on Uncle Mo as he makes his long anticipated debut in the one-turn mile stakes race called the Timely Writer which was specially written for the connections of Uncle Mo.  Why not? This colt is going to be a huge draw and, given the field he faces, it should be one, easy prep for this potential star in the making.

Certainly, one has to question what he’ll get out of this prep.  Or, how can you win the Triple Crown let alone the Derby with suspect distance breeding AND a light foundation?  Like his stablemate, Stay Thirsty (last weekend’s victor of the Gotham stakes), Uncle Mo has had only 6 works since his devastating victory in the 2010 Breeders Cup Juvenile.  Is he brilliant but needs too much time off between races?  I tend to like my Derby contenders a little more warrior like.  I guess with get our first clues Saturday.  By my estimation of pace and likely finishes, I am projecting that Uncle Mo should easily win this heat by 7 or 8 lengths against the meager Timely Writer field of "what I am doing here" colts and geldings.

Heading over to the Far Left Coast, Santa Anita will be putting on quite a show with a deep, quality field of Derby hopefuls in the G2 San Felipe Stakes.  As what has become the growing trend, the headliner, Jaycito is also making his 2011 debut in mid-March in what will be another two-race prepper making his way to the Kentucky Derby.   Baffert’s charge faces a quality field of three year olds with the top contenders making their first try at a route of ground.  Premier Pegasus, Bench Points, Runflatout are all highly regarded and one of these (hint: PrePeg) is sure to break through with big effort.

The G2 Tampa Bay Derby has increased in stature having served as a spring board to Derby victories for the likes of Super Saver (2010) and Street Sense (2007).   The top four finishers from the Sam Davis reunite to do battle in what is projected to be a slow- early, fast-late pace scenario-- much as it was in the Sam Davis.  Brethren looms large second off the layoff but had everything his own way last out.  Does he stay undefeated or does Free Entry or one of 7 others break the win streak?

Let’s break down these key Derby preps and assess the quality of each:

Gulfstream Park – Time Writer 1 Mile Dirt (one-turn)

Field Size = 6

Number of Graded Stakes Winners: 2

Number of Graded Stakes Placed: 2

BRIS Pace Par:  First Call = 91; Second Call = 97

Projected Pace:  First Call = 99; Second Call = 105

Energy Distribution Profile of Field: Two with speed; the rest, closers

Morning Line Favorite:  Uncle Mo (CURRENT HRN RANKING: #1)

Shutty’s Top Three Picks: Uncle Mo, Rocking Out, Madman Diaries

Hit-the-Board Bomber Pick:  Schoolyard Cat

HRN SUPER SCREENER QUALITY RATING = C-

Notes: Tough to assign a quality rating to a race with the early Derby favorite in the field.  But, since it is a one-turn mile, with no depth and only 6 entered just can’t go higher than a C-.  Would be a D- if Uncle Mo wasn't present.  Madman Diaries is sent, Uncle Mo stalks -- game over.

Santa Anita – G2 San Felipe 1 1/16 Miles Dirt

Field Size = 10

Number of Graded Stakes Winners: 3

Number of Graded Stakes Placed: 7

BRIS Pace Par:  First Call = 94; Second Call = 104

Projected Pace:  First Call = 94; Second Call = 106

Energy Distribution Profile of Field: Slightly slanted to early speed

Morning Line Favorite:  Jaycito (CURRENT HRN RANKING: #13)

Shutty’s Top Three Picks: Runflatout, Premier Pegasus, Jaycito

Hit-the-Board Bomber Pick:  Jakesam

HRN SUPER SCREENER QUALITY RATING = B+

Notes: Very respectable, deep field that rates as one of the top three preps of the year thus far.  Most graded stakes placed runners in a prep to date.  Quinonez takes PrePeg (blinkers off) over Bench Points.  Sadler pegged Runflatout as his top 3 year-old before Del Mar meet started.

Tampa Bay – G2 Tampa Bay Derby 1 1/16 Miles Dirt

Field Size = 9

Number of Graded Stakes Winners: 1

Number of Graded Stakes Placed: 3

BRIS Pace Par:  First Call = 94; Second Call = 104

Projected Pace:  First Call = 86; Second Call = 96

Energy Distribution Profile of Field: Off the Pace/Closer dominated

Morning Line Favorite:  Brethren (CURRENT HRN RANKING: #13)

Shutty’s Top Three Picks: Free Entry, Brethren, Economic Summit

Hit-the-Board Bomber Pick:  Beamer

HRN SUPER SCREENER QUALITY RATING = C+

Notes: After Brethren and Free Entry, hard to find others with a shot to go on.  Beamer and Too Experience were compromised by the slow pace in the Sam Davis but projected pace scenario here looks much the same so hard to recommend.

Come back to this blog Tuesday and we’ll take a look at this prep to see if trips, biases and pace/speed rating outcomes will alter our HRN SUPER SCREENER QUALITY RATING.

Go now to HRN's 2011 Kentucky Derby Contenders Power Rankings to see how the fans are rating contenders and cast your own votes!  Kentucky Derby 2011 Contenders.

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Mike