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HRN Original Blog:

Prepping your way to the HRN Derby Super Screener Winner

Welcome HRN racing fans to THE blog for rating the Derby preps!

It struck me that by the time all the major and minor Derby preps have been completed and we're ready to get an early jump on handicapping a probable Derby field, recall gets a little fuzzy.  That was the inspiration for this blog. 

Over the next 11 weeks of Derby preps, we'll be assessing the quality of each race both before and after the races have been run.  Every Friday, we'll provide a breakdown and a grade for each of the weekend's prep races based on the quality of each entry, depth of the field and projected pace scenarios (using BRIS data).  Then on Tuesday, we'll reassess the quality rating of the weekend's prep races by noting details on performance, trips, biases and more.  We'll also alert the fans to the Derby prep schedule for the upcoming weekend.

By the time 11 weeks pass, we'll have created an easy-to-access, insight-packed reference guide to the quality and nuances of each of the prep races run.  These results will then fuel the popular HRN Derby Super Screener that leverages the most predicitive data to lead us to the top Derby win contenders.

And we're off!

Saturday, 2/12/11

Santa Anita -- G2 Robert B. Lewis Stakes -- 1 1/8 miles
Field Size = 7
Number of Graded Stakes Winners: 1
BRIS Pace Par:  First Call = 94; Second Call = 100
Projected Pace:   First Call = 93;  Second Call = 100
Energy Distribution Profile of Field:  Balanced
Morning Line Favorite:  Tapizar
HRN Super Screener Quality Rating = C+
Play of the Day Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mse2AWSiReo
Notes:  Track surface currently heavily biased toward early speed

Tampa Bay Downs -- G3 Sam Davis Stakes --  1 1/16 miles
Field Size = 10
Number of Graded Stakes Winners: 0
BRIS Pace Par:  First Call = 92; Second Call = 100
Projected Pace:  First Call = 92; Second Call = 98
Energy Distribution Profile of Field: Primarily Pressers and Closers
Morning Line Favorite:  Brethren
HRN Super Screener Quality Rating = C-
Play of the Day Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1KXMiM3jktc
Notes:  27 of 33 races run at 1 1/16 miles at the meet have been won by wire-to-wire and  presser types.  Brethren making his 2011 debut.  Field is deep but quality is suspect.

Golden Gate -- G3 El Camino Real Derby -- 1 1/8 miles
Field Size = 6
Number of Graded Stakes Winners: 1
BRIS Pace Par: First Call = 92; Second Call = 100
Projected Pace: First Call = 99; Second Call = 103
Energy Distribution Profile of Field: Decidedly Speed Heavy
Morning Line Favorite:  Comma To The Top
HRN Super Screener Quality Rating = C
Notes: Anticipating a hot speed duel to develop between Comma To The Top, Positive Response and Jakesam.

Check back Tuesday as we analyze the results of these Kentucky Derby Prep races and reassess our quality rating.

Go Fast and Win!

Mike Shutty


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Older Comments about Prepping your way to the HRN Derby Super Screener Winner...

Great breakdown. Although I agree the Sam Davis field is a bit suspect, I think several in there do have the potential to jump up and become a serious contender. The Camino Real will be interesting to see how Comma To The Top deals with all the pace pressure. Could set up for a closer.

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About Me

Mike has been a passionate horseracing fan for over 30 years. He received his “handicapping education” through countless hours of deciphering the mystery that is embedded in every race. It was the tough beats at the window, however, that propelled him to never make the same mistake twice (well, maybe three times).

As Managing Partner of Horse Racing Nation, Mike serves as investor, business advisor, staff handicapper and developer of handicapping content.

Handicapping the Derby has always been one of Mike's favorite endeavors.  He spends weeks compiling notes, speed figures and analysis in preparation for the big race.  In 2010, his HRN pals pushed him into packaging his time-tested methods into what became the 2010 Kentucky Derby Super Screener, an e-book that became extremely popular with HRN readers and was downloaded over 3,000 times.   

In preparation for the 2011 Derby, Mike will be "Rating the Preps" each weekend on the Derby trail.  The goal will be to build a good picture for which prep races are most likely to produce the 2011 Kentucky Derby winner.   

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