With the major preps
now in the history books, who are your Top 5 2011 Kentucky Derby contenders? I would have to put the top two finishers of the Arkansas Derby at the head of my list. Nehro and Archarcharch both looked the part of key Derby contenders. This prep came up so strong and unfolded like a typical Kentucky Derby race with a full field, strong pace and deep quality. These top two finishers must be respected.
After diving deep
into all of the Derby preps before and after they were run, there is no question
in my mind that the Top 5 Kentucky
Derby Prep Races were as follows:
1. Arkansas Derby
2. Florida Derby
3. Rebel Stakes
4. Holy Bull
5. Louisiana Derby
The only Derby prep
left on the trail is this Saturday’s Coolmore
Lexington Stakes as Jaycito gets
one more shot after recovering from a mild injury.
After looking at all
the numbers coming out of the Derby preps, I can safely conclude that, to date, we have a
mediocre crop of 3 year-olds this year that are hard to separate. So many have been lightly raced that we
won’t really know what this crop is all about until we hit the late summer
months.
As for the preps run
this past weekend, I was most impressed with Nehro and the energy he showed passing Archarcharch past the wire.
He looks dead fit and continues to cycle forward.
The Blue Grass Stakes was a great race to
watch, but the top two finishers, Brilliant
Speed and Twin Spired just don’t
have a good dirt race between them.
I can’t see either of these making an impact come May 7th (unless
it’s a turf race on the Derby undercard!)
Let’s take a look at
final major preps and determine how the outcomes affected our HRN Derby Prep
Quality Ratings:
Oaklawn Park
– G1
Arkansas
Derby 1 1/8 miles
Winner: Archarcharch
(RANKED #14 – HRN DERBY CONTENDERS)
Beyer Speed Rating: 98
BRIS Pace/Final
Pars: First Call = 96; Second Call = 107; Final
= 107
Actual Pace/Final:
First Call = 94; Second Call = 98;
Final = 99
Track Bias: Favored
closers
Tough Trips: None
Impressive
Effort: Nehro
HRN Pre-Race
Grade = A
HRN Post-Race Grade = A
Notes: This
one set up like a Kentucky Derby
preview…full field, strong pace and deep in quality. Taking nothing away from Archarcharch’s victory but Nehro’s
late run past the wire was quite impressive. Both horses will be live win contenders with a slight nod
going to Nehro going into the Derby.
Keeneland–
G1
Blue
Grass Stakes 1 1/8 miles (Polytrack)
Winner: Brilliant
Speed (RANKED #49 – HRN DERBY CONTENDERS)
Beyer Speed Rating: 89
BRIS Pace/Final
Pars: First Call = 96; Second Call = 107; Final
= 107
Actual
Pace/Final: First Call = 86;
Second Call = 97; Final = 97
Track Bias: Closer bias
all day
Tough Trips: Newsdad, Santiva, Wilcox Inn
Impressive
Effort: King Congie
HRN Pre-Race
Grade = A-
HRN Post-Race Grade = B
Notes: Turf
specialist takes the Blue Grass and
second place goes to a confirmed Polytrack runner. Both Brilliant Speed
and Twin Spired’s dirt tries were
horrible. Just don’t see either of
these making an impact on the Kentucky
Derby outcome. Santiva and Wilcox Inn had tough trips but neither showed courage.
Check back on Friday when we
preview the Coolmore Lexington Stakes to see if Jaycito has what it takes to be
a live contender in the Kentucky Derby.
Coming this week, you’ll get your
chance to order this year’s Kentucky Derby Super
Screener only from your friends at Horse Racing Nation. We need it this year now more than ever
to sort through this mess!
GET YOUR 2011 KENTUCKY DERBY SUPER SCREENER TODAY!
GO FAST AND WIN!
Mike Shutty