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Kentucky Derby...Think Twice about Favored Pace Types

 

While doing our analysis to create the screening criteria for the Kentucky Derby Super Screener, we came upon some interesting insights centered on the role of energy distribution profiles (running styles) and their impact on the outcome of the top four Kentucky Derby finishers.

 

Below is a chart we compiled that shows the top four finishers of the past 10 editions of the Kentucky Derby, their odds and their Energy Distribution Profile. In addition, we captured the first and second call factional times of each race.

 

 

YEAR

 

PACE

WINNER/ODDS

 

ENERGY DISTRIBUTION PROFILE

PLACE/ODDS

 

ENERGY DISTRIBUTION PROFILE

SHOW/ODDS

 

ENERGY DISTRIBUTION PROFILE

4TH PLACE/ODDS

 

ENERGY DISTRIBUTION PROFILE

 

 

 

 

 

2003

46 1/5  1:10  2/5

Funny Cide 13-1

PRESSER

Empire Maker 5-2

DEEP CLOSER

Peace Rules 6-1

PACE

AtswhatImtalknabout 9-1

DEEP CLOSER

2004

46 3/5  1:11 4/5

Smarty Jones 4-1

PRESSER

Lion Heart 5-1

PACE

Imperialism 11-1

DEEP CLOSER

Limehouse 42-1

CLOSER

2005

45 1/5  1:09 2/5

Giacomo 50-1

DEEP CLOSER

Closing Argument 71-1

PRESSER

Afleet Alex 9-2

CLOSER

Don’t Get Mad  29-1

DEEP CLOSER

2006

46        1:10 4/5

Barbaro 6-1

CLOSER

Bluegrass Cat 30-1

CLOSER

Steppenwolfer 16-1

DEEP CLOSER

Brother Derek 7-1

PRESSER

2007

46 1/5  1:11

Street Sense 5-1

DEEP CLOSER

Hard Spun 10-1

PACE

Curlin 5-1

CLOSER

Imawildandcrazyguy 29-1

DEEP CLOSER

2008

47        1:11

Big Brown 5-2

PRESSER

Eight Belles 13-1

CLOSER

Denis of Cork 27-1

DEEP CLOSER

Tale of Ekati 37-1

PRESSER

2009 (sloppy)

47 1/5  1:12

Mine That Bird 50-1

DEEP CLOSER

Pioneerof The Nile 6-1

PRESSER

Musket Man 20-1

CLOSER

Papa Clem 12-1

CLOSER

2010 (sloppy)

46        1:10

Super Saver 8-1

CLOSER

Ice Box 11-1

DEEP CLOSER

Paddy O’Prado 12-1

DEEP CLOSER

Make Music For Me 30-1

DEEP CLOSER

2011 (drying)

48 3/5  1:13 3/5

Animal Kingdom 21-1

CLOSER

Nehro 8-1

DEEP CLOSER

Mucho Macho Man 9-1

PRESSER

 

Shackeford 23-1

PACE

2012

45 1/5  1:09 4/5

I’ll Have Another 15 -1

CLOSER

Bodemeister 4-1

PACE

Dullahan 12-1

DEEP CLOSER

Went The Day Well 30-1

DEEP CLOSER

 

SUMMARY OF INSIGHTS:

 

Highly regarded pace types haven taken down a lot of money over the history of the Kentucky Derby. Just last year, Bodemeister went off as the favorite and looked much the winner in mid-stretch but failed to hold the bid. Lion Heart and Peace Rules were also highly regarded “wire” types that managed to hit the board but missed the win. Complete flops of recent favored pace types include; 2005 Bellamy Road, 2006 Brother Derek and 2010 Sidney’s Candy. War Emblem in 2002 broke through with a wire-to-wire victory.  Prior to War Emblem’s wire victory, which was the last horse to win the Kentucky Derby from gate to wire?

 

Here’s a summary of our findings from the chart above:

 

 

·       Of the 40 possible finish opportunities, Closers/Deep Closers accounted for 27 of the slots or 68%.

·       At least 2 Closer/Deep Closers hit the Superfecta in each of the past 10 editions of the Kentucky Derby. Six of ten races featured 3 or more closer types hitting the top four positions.

·       Half of the second place finishers were comprised of tiring PACE/PRESSER types.

·       No Pace type has won the Kentucky Derby in the past 10 years. Bodemeister came close with a 2nd place finish last year.

·       Five of the past ten races produced two 20-1+ long shots that finished in the Superfecta.

·       The fourth place slot yielded seven 20-1+ bombers in the past 10 years.

 

 

For the 2013 Kentucky Derby, the Super Screener will be projecting the pace (once the final field is locked in) to provide insight on the prospects of “those that close”.  To learn more about how the Super Screener uses historical pace, speed, cycle and trends to separate the Derby field, go to www.superscreener.com Monday!

 

What the Nation is saying about Kentucky Derby...Think Twice about Favored Pace Types...

Postional analysis would have stated that Giacomo was LATE and it was well known the the 3rd place colt, Afleet Alex was much later, Fusaichi, Charismatic, Funny CIde, War Emblem, Super Saver, Smarty Jones, Monarchos all had the SAME average prep % medians and some of the ridiculous LATE ones like Pyro, Sweetnorthernsaint, were too too late as were those too early like Bellamy Road, Lion Heart and Hard Spun...To late and too early for the WIN, now Barbaro was all over the map and the Brown frankencolt was high at 67.8 -to 68.9, but just barely
that 1st fraction for fast shoule be 24 2/5 not 26 2/5
What POSITIONAL definitions miss, is that definition of a front running victory in 49, 1:13 4/5 1:38 etc gets the same "credit" as a front runner who zips through 26 2/5 1:10 3/5 and 1:35 and they are WORLD'S apart.....Same horse runs it race, lets say presser versus a fast, medium or slow pace of race and what happens, usually, to the positions they go from further back in the fastest example to closer up in the latter one..The horse ran the same, but postionally looked MUCH different.
All but a single animal, ran the last prep in a % median in the range 67.2-67.8 sustianed presser by fractoinal velocity and energy distribution...That is fact.
Kristen, it is important to note that date that is to be used prior to the Derby should only include data collected prior to the derby. I still think you have some very valid points, hence my like
You manipulated the data to create the result you wanted. It's either that or you're that bad at classifying the horses' running styles. I'll Have Another, Super Saver, Eight Belles, and Barbaro were stalkers. Barbaro ran the opening 6 furlongs in fourth place, so apparently there was one pace horse and presser, then everyone else is a closer? In fact, you classify Big Brown as a presser and Eight Belles as a closer, but if you watch the race through the opening mile, they race head and head, and on the backstretch she actually gets a length in front of him. How can you take two horses that raced side by side, and give them different running styles? Not impressive.
Not sure how you can count some of those horses as closers. Super Saver, IHA, Barbaro...They all pressed the pace
EVERY Derby winner save one, the Brown Put was sustained/presser....That steroid frankenhorse was presser.
What's this crap with my name?
What was that "I can't post here anymore" crap?
:D. Tha post confused me, but I got it... Carlos no longer posts here anyway, I didn't need that multi account nutcase accusation crap.. He's made like three comments on my account, but that was the only one he did by accident (he wrote "hey ed, blah, blah, blah." therefore making it look weird... Anyway, have a good one, amino.
Cocoa’s smart enough not to post 1 guy’s comment on another guy’s account :D.
My "little group of aholes" << nice, very mature.
So now you can read my thoughts? I speak for me, and only me. Not Mary Z.
Ugh! Sorry! My computer! "Rafi's loosing all his fans!" or "You're digging yourself in a deeper and deeer hole.".... You speak for you and Mary (considering tcglory isn't in your little group of aholes, but very well could be).
"Rafi
You think you speak for all of HRN, but, truly, you speak for Mary Z and you. "Rafi
And NEVER forget, guys, I am the immature one. Don't forget, I can see why you might get a little mixed up.
^^ so you just wrote a whole post on how I don't understand and how I'm too immature... Let us get insight from the poor people withstanding your nonsense, has anything I have done on this thread provoked this nastiness? Rafi is being a pretty big bully to me
Sorry, (cont) (as much as tv) but, it is obvious. YOU DO NOT UNDERSTAND. Unless you let me teach it to you, which I can't, since you're to immature to admit I know something you don't , lol. Obviously, based on your response, you have no clue and didn't comprehend a word I said about how pace affects the illusion of positioning (which is not complicated to get used to)

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About Me

Mike has been a passionate horseracing fan for over 30 years. He received his “handicapping education” through countless hours of deciphering the mystery that is embedded in every race. It was the tough beats at the window, however, that propelled him to never make the same mistake twice (well, maybe three times).

As Managing Partner of Horse Racing Nation, Mike serves as investor, business advisor, staff handicapper and developer of handicapping content.

Handicapping the Derby has always been one of Mike's favorite endeavors.  He spends weeks compiling notes, speed figures and analysis in preparation for the big race.  In 2010, his HRN pals pushed him into packaging his time-tested methods into what became the 2010 Kentucky Derby Super Screener, an e-book that became extremely popular with HRN readers and was downloaded over 3,000 times.   

In preparation for the 2011 Derby, Mike will be "Rating the Preps" each weekend on the Derby trail.  The goal will be to build a good picture for which prep races are most likely to produce the 2011 Kentucky Derby winner.