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  • Uncle Lino digs in to win the inaugural California Chrome Stakes.Posted 10 hours ago
  • A Lot holds off favored Green Mask by a whisker to win the Elusive Quality.Posted 13 hours ago
  • Galileo Gold, under Frankie Dettori, rolls in the 2000 Guineas.Posted 19 hours ago
  • Olorda takes them all the way in the Bewitch Stakes on closing day at Keeneland.Posted 1 day ago
  • Nyquist will get in his final Kentucky Derby workout Friday afternoon at Keeneland.Posted 4 days ago
  • Time and Motion wins the Memories of Silver for Jimmy Toner.Posted 6 days ago
  • Finest City sets new track record in Great Lady M.Posted 7 days ago
  • Stanford finds his way back to the winner's circle in the Charles Town Classic.Posted 7 days ago
  • Rose Brier sets new course record in the Henry S. Clark.Posted 7 days ago
  • Da Big Hoss lives up to his name with the Dixiana Elkhorn win.Posted 7 days ago


HRN Original Blog:
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Older Comments...

VERY disappointing.
Bill Timeform figures and Beyer figures are on a different scale. Beyer figures usually run 10 to 12 points lower than Timeform figures--sometimes more. And although they are reasonably highly correlated, there are clearly significant differences between them. Nevertheless, translating Secretariat's 139 into a Timeform equivalent has Secretariat at a minimum of 2 to 4 points higher than Frankel. I have seen Frankel's very best race so many times I can't even count the number, and the same with Secretariat's Belmont Stakes. The fact is I have seen races as impressive as Frankel's best (Dr. Fager's World record mile was at least as good), but Secretariat's 2:24 by 31 lengths is what statisticians call an outlier. A point that's too far off on a scattergram of data. Nothing Frankel did is too far off any scattergram. Impressive, yes. Very impressive, yes. Extremely impressive, yes. Freakish, no. So I guess my answer is whatever number you give Frankel for his best race, it has to be lower than the number you give for Secretariat's Belmont. Timeform is saying that Brigadier Gerard's best race is as good as Secretariat's Belmont, and that Sea Bird's best race (and no one holds Sea Bird in higher regard than I do) is one point better. Look, we're all grown men here, and we know that's not true. We know that both Brigadier Gerard and Sea Bird each on his very best day would have been crushed by Secretariat the day he ran his Belmont. We both know that neither Sea Bird's Epsom Derby nor his Arc de Triomphe was even remotely in the same league as Secretariat's Belmont. So here's what I would do. Put Frankel at either 146 or 147, and put Secretariat at 150 or 151. And I would still think you're treating Frankel generously.
  • bill allan via Disqus · thanks, I was unable to access the ratings so don't know how they work?, what is the difference between MOW (934) and SEC (933) is it 1 lb, also what was Sea Biscuit · 5 hours ago
Lack luster effort...on 4/30/16. Needed a photo to keep third
Uncle Lino looked terrific today in winning the California Chrome Stakes
yes she always looks fantastic she is an amazing horse...
y are they gonna run her sunday they weren't gonna till she was a 100%... not gonna run her till june
I will say this...Most of the time NOT even the trainers know if a horse can race a distance of grounds or if they are superior on grass or slop until they try them!! What many folks don't understand is breeding or pedigree DOES NOT guarantee that a horse will be a distance runner or a sprinter, because you just never know if a horse gets his qualities from sheer determination, parents pedigree or great great grandparents pedigree. Therefore, base on these facts, I believe one should not knock a horse until you have fully taken into account their current performance, running style, class competition, health condition, and track they will be running on!! So even though nothing is guarantee in horse race, In my book I seriously think they have not yet seen the best of this monster named Nyquist and I am looking forward to some good racing!!! Good luck in your rethinking and handicap analysis!!
so the horses I will be playing are Nyquist, SuddenBreakingNews, Brody's Cause, Mor Spirit, My Man Sam, and MoTom
and Brody's Cause
But with inside posts these two have no chance to win, so we have to wait til post draw.
Still like MO Tom, but not the most. I do not like Outwork at all. SuddenBreakingNews, Mor Spirit, My Man Sam, Nyquist are the ones that are intriguing to me. And I do not think Mor Spirit is good enough to win. My 2 favorite are MoTom and SuddenBreakingNews. SBN is working out really well. I mean really well. And has that Storm Cat in his pedigree.
thank you ross..lol..now where are his posts ..lol
when is he racing?
Anyone know where I can find dougs picks...???????????
  • Ross via Disqus · Just ask him on one of his posts here and more than likely you'll get a response. · 13 hours ago
Wins Belmont's 7th vs older today!
where is douglas and his picks
Salutos Amigos to skip the Weschester in favor of Churchill Downs Handicap.
Lexie Lou is entered in Woodbine race 8 today, 4/30/16. 4:53 post time. Aoc, none up for claim. F&M, 8.5f on the tapeta. Faces Strut The Course and only three others
Has arrived at Churchill Downs just before 2 pm today. He traveled great and was greeted by a large crowd despite the rain. He is expected to train over the Churchill track up to the K Derby starting tomorrow at 8:30 am. He couldn't come out of his final work at Keeneland yesterday any better than he did. He had a new pair of shoes put on him just this morning.
People CONSTANTLY look at the WRONG END of a horse race in developing an idea whether it was a good effort or not. ONCE a horse is beaten, the rider does not persist and the final fraction has little to do with the early pace effort.
  • hoof_hearted666 · I will tell you of two racehorses who CONSTANTLY look at the WRONG END of a race horse. Swipe who ALWAYS looks at Nyquist's butt, and then Land Over Sea, who constantly looks at Songbird's butt.............. JUST POINTING OUT THAT FACT, as funny and true as it is!!!!! :-) · 16 hours ago
 
 
 

About Me

Mike has been a passionate horseracing fan for over 30 years. He received his “handicapping education” through countless hours of deciphering the mystery that is embedded in every race. It was the tough beats at the window, however, that propelled him to never make the same mistake twice (well, maybe three times).

As Managing Partner of Horse Racing Nation, Mike serves as investor, business advisor, staff handicapper and developer of handicapping content.

Handicapping the Derby has always been one of Mike's favorite endeavors.  He spends weeks compiling notes, speed figures and analysis in preparation for the big race.  In 2010, his HRN pals pushed him into packaging his time-tested methods into what became the 2010 Kentucky Derby Super Screener, an e-book that became extremely popular with HRN readers and was downloaded over 3,000 times.   

In preparation for the 2011 Derby, Mike will be "Rating the Preps" each weekend on the Derby trail.  The goal will be to build a good picture for which prep races are most likely to produce the 2011 Kentucky Derby winner.   


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