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HRN Original Blog:
KentuckyDerbySuperScreener

Blue Grass/Arkansas Derby = Little Derby Impact?

Though the final major preps were certainly entertaining to watch and produced excellent wagering opportunities, the top finishers in each race will likely have little to no impact on the outcome of the Kentucky Derby. This is particularly true for the Arkansas Derby.
 
Each of the final major prep races was rather “formful” with the exception of the turn-around performance by Frac Daddy as he finished a game second at huge odds in the Arkansas Derby.  The Blue Grass Stakes field was very competitive, but in the end, the second and third choices finished one-two.
 
Let’s look at “how” the winners of each race ran their final preps and what that foretells regarding their prospects for an “in the Superfecta” performance come the first Saturday in May.
 
First up, Java’s War, winner of the Blue Grass Stakes.
 

 

 

Did Java’s War break poorly at the start of the Blue Grass Stakes or is that just the way he breaks in his races?  He broke last in the Tampa Bay Derby and going back to his Kentucky Jockey Club race the commentary states “broke slow”.  So, you know he’ll come running late in the Kentucky Derby as stamina is no question, but with what now appears to be a moderate Derby pace, count on nothing more than a bump up, bottom-of-the-Superfecta finish at odds far less attractive than what other one-run closers will offer.
 
Let’s move on to the Arkansas Derby which, in my opinion, was one of the least significant of the final prep races. The winner, Overanalyze, out of the Todd Pletcher barn, redeemed himself after a rather disappointing, even effort in the Gotham stakes. He has every right to move forward going into the Kentucky Derby but he’ll need to take a big step forward to get anywhere close to his impressive Futurity and Remsen victories. 
 
Overanalyze produced a very similar BRIS Pace and Speed Rating line to that of the 2010 Kentucky Derby winner, Super Saver, in his Arkansas Derby prep.  But that 2010 three year-old crop was particularly weak and there are far too many others coming into this year’s Kentucky Derby that have submitted superior preps.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

How will each of these Kentucky Derby participants fare when taken through the time-tested Kentucky Derby Super Screener criteria?  Find out Monday when the 2013 Kentucky Derby Super Screener is released!

 

Go Fast and Win! 

 

Mike 

 

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Older Comments about Blue Grass/Arkansas Derby = Little Derby Impact?...

ever notice trouble prone horses continue to get into trouble no matter the rider? They burn a lot of money.
hmm mike were we watching the same two races? I think Palice Malice has a huge chance to hit the board in the Derby To come back in 2 short weeks after a horrible trip getting blocked in the la derby and finish 2nd by less than a length shows some true talent Hes only raced 5 times wont be 3 until may Other than the derby Has hit the board in all of his other starts hes bred to go long The horse can be placed anywhere on the track I like him I also like the way way overanaylze ran great closing kick. So what the times wernt the fastest there havent been many fast races won this year anyway Who wants to peak the race before the derby?
wantwoman100, brings to mind all manner of an odd genesis.
Mike ,I been promoting your product all over the internet ,Twitter,Facebook,Meettme every year!! Breeder Cup 3 out of 4 favroite would not hit the board ....just that alone is money in the pocket !! Great -Work !! Lets get the derby winner,ex,trif,super,and score big..People get on board !! Mike Shutty is the man !!
IF ANYONE evaluates a Derby colt based upon one race would have missed a lot of big ones, i.e. Giacomo and many others..It is the body of work
Overanalyze did what he needed to do to WIN and looked to have covered the most ground, on what was said to be a sticky slow track. Toss the slow times/low BSF bs. Unbridled's Fl Derby 1:52; Street Sense loss in Bluegrass 1:51, Animal Kingdom win the Spiral 1:52. Plenty of slow preps in the past that have produced Derby Winners. Orb, Overanalyze, Goldencents, Gov. Charlie, Black Onyx are winners to have been pulling away from the competition in their preps
Patrick in the past most of the big preps were run 2 weeks before the Derby and the Bluegrass was run 10 days before the Derby. Joe Hirsch of the Racing Form used to eliminate any horse from his Derby pick if it had not run in 6 weeks. Look at the Preakness winners, almost all ran in the Derby 2 weeks before. Personally I think the horses from these races will benefit from coming back in 3 weeks in the Derby although I am not sure any are good enough to win.
I personally don't like the fact that both these races are run just 3 weeks prior to the KD. Even though there is only 2 weeks between the KD and the Preakness, and 3 weeks between the Preakness and Belmont. In my opinion you need at least 4 to 5 weeks before you head into the KD. I know that most needed to run and do well to assure a spot in the KD. But You have many well rested horses that have already proven they belong in the KD. I think they should have both of these races earlier than 3 weeks before the KD!
Route experience matters in the Derby, and Java’s War has run 4 consecutive races at 8.5 furlongs or more (on the board in 3) and Overanalyze has won 2 9 furlong races. In a field of lightly raced horses (average of 3 8.5 furlong or longer races) I’ll take these two to finish in the top 5 no matter what the odds are.
Most of these so called Derby horses ran slow. Every year we hear how this horse or that horse won't win because of whatever reason, but they perform above and beyond.I'll be laughing in a month when some of the Nations experts come out with reasons why they had the horse, only days after saying that thaat same horse would not win...Its humorous
I think Oxbow took a step back too. Don't get me wrong, he's been solidly consistent towards the top, and i know he's had some bad breaks on post draws, but he just doesn't seem to have what it takes to win the derby.
Great info, Mike ... Overanalyze will be a big play against for me.

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About Me

Mike has been a passionate horseracing fan for over 30 years. He received his “handicapping education” through countless hours of deciphering the mystery that is embedded in every race. It was the tough beats at the window, however, that propelled him to never make the same mistake twice (well, maybe three times).

As Managing Partner of Horse Racing Nation, Mike serves as investor, business advisor, staff handicapper and developer of handicapping content.

Handicapping the Derby has always been one of Mike's favorite endeavors.  He spends weeks compiling notes, speed figures and analysis in preparation for the big race.  In 2010, his HRN pals pushed him into packaging his time-tested methods into what became the 2010 Kentucky Derby Super Screener, an e-book that became extremely popular with HRN readers and was downloaded over 3,000 times.   

In preparation for the 2011 Derby, Mike will be "Rating the Preps" each weekend on the Derby trail.  The goal will be to build a good picture for which prep races are most likely to produce the 2011 Kentucky Derby winner.