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HRN Original Blog:
KentuckyDerbySuperScreener

The 20-1 Win Contender Nobody Is Talking About

2012 Super Screener Top Story
What typically happens when everyone seems to agree in advance on the outcome of a full-field, Graded Stakes race?  More often than not, anything but the expected…which makes horse racing the great sport it is.

This is particularly true for the Kentucky Derby.  A race in which the contestants are being asked to do something they will never have to do again in their lifetimes…run 1 ¼ miles for the first time against 19 other rivals under grueling pace conditions.  No wonder the post time favorite is so often left out of the winner’s circle photograph.

Without question, the field that is assembling for the 2012 Kentucky Derby is the deepest in years.  The consensus of the media is that eight horses make up this year’s Derby win contenders…and the same eight horses seem to appear on everyone’s list.  They are as follows:

· Bodemeister                    
· Union Rags
· Hansen
· Gemologist
· Creative Cause
· I’ll Have Another
· Dullahan
· Alpha

The 2012 Super Screener doesn’t disagree that many of these horses are strong candidates to hit the board.  However, only 4 horses actually pass all the Super Screener win criteria and 2 of those strong win contenders don’t even appear on the list above…and will go off at 20-1 or higher at post time…any guesses?  

Went the Day Well HorseWe are going reveal one of these top-scoring win contenders right now…his name is Went The Day Well.

He’s being dismissed by so many due to the following:

1. Broke his maiden just two back
2. Beat nobody in the Spiral Stakes run 6 weeks ago
3. The top 8 above are far superior win choices (really?)

How then, can the Super Screener end up rating this one as a top 4 win contender?  Here are three of the six reasons the Super Screener says include in the win spot:

1. Did his best running into the swift second call Spiral Stakes pace (BRIS 98) 
2. Has paired triple-digit late pace and final figures in the Spiral Stakes
3. Has not only paired but has produced triple-digit pace figures in each of his last three races

BONUS I:  Consider this…his two Maiden races were two of the slowest paced races run all meet long on the speedy Gulfstream Park surface, so those final Speed Ratings are artificially low and yet each is better than the previous.

BONUS II:  Same connections as Animal Kingdom, last year’s Kentucky Derby winner.  Exiting the same prep race with eerily similar outcomes (watch the replays of the 2011 and 2012 Spiral Stakes).  However, Went The Day Well is proven on dirt unlike his stable mate who made his dirt debut in the Derby.  Yes, this one is greener but he did post a 103 BRIS Speed Rating (fourth best in the 2012 Derby field), which was 6 points faster than what Animal Kingdom produced in the Spiral Stakes!

Read more about Went The Day Well in the  2012 Super Screener and find out which other 20-1+ horse the 2012 Super Screener rates as one of the top four win contenders.
 

 

 

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Older Comments about The 20-1 Win Contender Nobody Is Talking About...

It is El Padrino. Not my pick, but I'm watching.
the 20-1 they are talking about has got to be El Padrino!!!!!
Dullahan should pick them up at the 16th pole. The speed will be rapid. You can throw out Bodemeister, no horse has ever won the KY derby without running at a 2 year old.
El Padrino is the forgotten horse now?!?!?!?!?! I think at 20-1 he is a HUGE overlay in the morning line
Dullahan is good but i wonder if his going to make it to the wire in time to take the Derby....
Maybe in the Tri and Super ...but Win...I'll take Dullahan!
I agree that Went the Day Well has a real shot and he's forgotten in this deep race!
Good Jockeys will always find a way to win, if it's a slop on Saturday Derby then watch Borail come up the rail where nobody will ride. Certainly not Leppy! Castallano will try but will not have enough in the tank, better fit would have been Pimlico. Johnny V a favorite rider, a money jock, with a nose for the wire, he infinately always seems to come out of the clouds in situations like these in this years Derby he will definitely be in the hunt. Class rider Mick Smith, has not ridden in the past for Baffert, but Baffert has more than a horse in this this race, he has a horse named after his son Bode! Makes a big difference, so he calls on a big gun, a hall of fame rider, who has consistently been there before. Leppy has the horse, he's a grand powerful display of power, will Leppy ride for the title and the win in my mind is a question that only he can answer. In the past Leppy has been exceedingly leary of the rail and he does not engage, seems as though he rides in fear, especially against the best riders? Daddy should be rolling on the end, weather GoGo can catch them only remains to be seen, but you can be confident that Garrett will put him in position to make the best try..
forget 20/1 im looking baffert/garcia 50/1 liaison
I have been watching Went The Day Well for some time and he has been my pick.
That horse they are talking about is EL PADRINO.
With so many favorites..9 I believe. R|ight down to TCI Why search any further for a long shot? Chances are 4 or more "Favorites" (maybe Alpha,TCI,Ill Have Another,Hansen) May be from 10- 15 to 1.
gotta love these guys. horse racing has been around for hundreds of years but they came up with a system everyone else missed.
I've never heard of 75% handicapper, is that even possible?
Thats funny, I have my own screener method and WtdW kept ending up as a 4-5th best bet, i had to go back and check my numbers! However the real gem I found was Take Charge Indy. You can keep WtdW at 20-1, I use Take Charge Indy at 15-1 to key in the derby.
Gotta say I'm still not sold on this horse
Last years' Dervby there were two COLTS one could not evaluate at all: a shipper from Europe and AK who had run on nothing but rubber.
Read this article and laughed out loud. When HUNDREDS of so called "esperts" give out their analysis, someone finds the soothsayer who happened to hit the winner and based upon that single shot (much akin to marekt analyses on Wall Street who shoot for the moon a statistically hit just about as often) these guys gest guru status, that is for ONE year. Show me soemone who hits even 75% and then they qualify as an expert source.

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About Me

Mike has been a passionate horseracing fan for over 30 years. He received his “handicapping education” through countless hours of deciphering the mystery that is embedded in every race. It was the tough beats at the window, however, that propelled him to never make the same mistake twice (well, maybe three times).

As Managing Partner of Horse Racing Nation, Mike serves as investor, business advisor, staff handicapper and developer of handicapping content.

Handicapping the Derby has always been one of Mike's favorite endeavors.  He spends weeks compiling notes, speed figures and analysis in preparation for the big race.  In 2010, his HRN pals pushed him into packaging his time-tested methods into what became the 2010 Kentucky Derby Super Screener, an e-book that became extremely popular with HRN readers and was downloaded over 3,000 times.   

In preparation for the 2011 Derby, Mike will be "Rating the Preps" each weekend on the Derby trail.  The goal will be to build a good picture for which prep races are most likely to produce the 2011 Kentucky Derby winner.