what to make of the G1 Florida Derby. Here are some interesting observations
1. Dialed In did close against a
front-running bias that prevailed all day so he does deserve some credit for
overcoming the disadvantage.
As if we needed any more evidence that the 3 year-old male division is one of
the weakest in years, check out the final times of the 1 1/8 mile races run by
the ladies on Saturday versus the boys in the Florida Derby on Sunday:
G3 Rampart = 149.09
G2 Oaks = 149.27
G1 Florida Derby = 150.07
the internal fractions of all three races were nearly identical. I can hear Uncle Mo laughing in his stall.
3. Dialed In earned the following BRIS
pace and speed ratings in the Florida Derby
Call = 80; 2nd Call = 98;
Late Pace = 99; Final Speed Rating =
subscribers to our soon-to-be-released Kentucky
Derby Super Screener will learn, Dialed In would be just a marginal win
contender and a better bottom of exotics threat in the Derby off this effort. However, once we take the entire Derby
field through the Super Screener criteria, that evaluation could change. Stay tuned.
4. Shackleford unexpectedly led the field
throughout, in what was clearly his own, personal Kentucky Derby. This was a top effort by a good
horse. However, I believe this
will be his best race of the year, plus, he may not even get into the Derby
field due to insufficient graded stakes earnings.
5. Soldat did not like getting dirt
kicked in his face…hmmm, wonder how he’ll like the dirt at Churchill Downs on
6. Connections of To Honor and Serve say they are heading to the Derby. On what basis?...two fading 3rd place
finishes? Well, I am all for
getting any horse in that can help ensure an honest early Derby pace.
7. Flashpoint—great sprinter.
Stay Thirsty—good workmate for Uncle
The Arkansas Derby may now prove to
be the best of the remaining marquee preps.
let’s take a closer look at the Florida
Derby compared to other preps run thus far and see how we graded this race
after the fact.
Derby 1 1/8 miles
Winner: Dialed In
(RANKED #4 – HRN DERBY CONTENDERS)
Beyer Speed Rating: 93 (Preliminary…will probably go to 96 as the final)
Pars: First Call = 96; Second Call = 107; Final
Pace/Final: First Call = 102;
Second Call = 112; Final = 100
Track Bias: Decidedly
favoring front runners
Tough Trips: None
Effort: Dialed In
Grade = A
HRN Post-Race Grade = A-
Notes: Pace was sizzling as expected but what was not expected is
that Shackleford would lead the
charge. Really was hoping Dialed In would have won going away to
confirm the A rating of this prep.
That and the fact the Oaks contenders ran faster the day before, we are
dropping the HRN Quality Rating to an A-.
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Check back on Friday when we
preview the biggest Derby prep weekend of the year! Uncle Mo will go in the Wood and the Santa Anita Derby is
coming up huge as well. Don’t overlook
the Illinois Derby which has tossed a few Derby winners in the past. Coming soon, you’ll get your chance to
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GO FAST AND WIN!