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HRN Original Blog:
Dead Heat Debates

The Gold Cup, Worth More than Just a Victory

There is always a lot on the line in a race, especially one like the Jockey Club Gold Cup, but in 2013, there seems to be much more on the line than another grade one, winning a purse, or earning prestige. This year, the Gold Cup is a pivotal race to several horses. It will determine a possible championship, it could mean something historic, it could determine the path one might take to the Breeders Cup, and for the rest of their career. As I said, there is a lot riding on this race.
 
The most published facet of this race is the weight it holds in distinguishing a leader among the three year old division. This year, there have been many outstanding performances throughout the division, but no single horse has shown a complete dominance. Here, you have two of the “Big Three” entered, in Orb and Palace Malice.
 
Orb is your Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby winner. He has the body of work to make a strong case for the lead Three Year Old colt, but he hasn’t won since the Kentucky Derby. He came back from the Belmont with an impressive race in the Travers, a race he entered off an 11 week layoff, but he was beaten by longshot Will Take Charge, who just validated that win, with another impressive victory in the Pennsylvania Derby.
 
Palace Malice has had quite a year too, finishing third in the Risen Star and second in the grade one Bluegrass Stakes before winning the Belmont Stakes and Jim Dandy. In the Travers, his bad luck reared its ugly head, again, when he broke second to last over a speed favoring strip, and was made to go five wide on the final turn. He was beaten less than a length, but it was still a loss. A win in the Gold Cup, would give both of these colts a win over grade one winning older males, something Will Take Charge doesn’t have, therefore vaulting them to the head of the division.
 
For Cross Traffic, this race could determine his Breeders Cup status. He won the Whitney, after setting blistering internal fractions, while holding off a late surge by Successful Dan, but that was at nine furlongs, not 10. The good news is that, with an outside draw and a lack of other speed horses, Cross Traffic will likely be setting a much more sensible pace. Should he win or run a good race, he will likely be pointed to the Breeders’ Cup Classic, a race that could earn him Horse of the Year if he won. If he loses, he will most likely be pointed to the Dirt Mile, a race that looks no easier.
 
Finally, we come to Flat Out, who is moving to become the first horse since Forego to win over two Jockey Club Gold Cups. Belmont is his house, he has only ever lost once over its surface, and that was after a horrendous trip over a distance that is shorter than his best. This is his track and his race, but the field he faces this year is the best he’s take on, in this race. He has to beat the Derby and Belmont winner, along with the Whitney hero, and the Woodward winner, Alpha. He also has to contend with multiple graded stakes winner Last Gunfighter. This by no means will be an easy victory.
 
With all this in mind who do you pick? Cross Traffic is insanely talented, has speed to spare, and will likely get a much softer pace and a perfect trip. Palace Malice is on the improve, loves Belmont, loves the distance, and also looks to have the perfect set up, stalking stablemate Cross Traffic. Orb, also on the improve looms large, but he’ll have to overcome an inside draw. Flat Out loves the track and the distance, but is up against a very accomplished, very solid group.
 
The thoughts here are that Palace Malice gets the bob over his very talented stablemate, and establishes himself the leader of his division. Cross Traffic runs well enough in defeat to merit a start in the Classic, while Flat Out falls just short of history, coming in third. However, as noted, this is a very competitive field, most likely one of the best in recent years, and I for one, am sitting on the edge of the proverbial seat, brimming with anticipation. Time to see who is the alpha of the Classic division.
 

 

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Older Comments about The Gold Cup, Worth More than Just a Victory...

He has two very good shots in a top three year old and older male. I'd take those shots too. He also has a horse that was a group one turf winner, at this distance, who can apparently run on dirt, so again, why not give him the shot? Baffert I think overenters sometimes. Entering some that don't really have a legit shot. Pletcher's three all have good reasons as to why they are in this race.
I guess the lack of larger fields would be lamented.
If lamented is too strong, just think small fields.
If you follow the SoCal races, sometimes in their much lamented smaller fields Baffert might have three or more entries.
Mary is that the substitution word for Bogarted?
If that is the case.Then one thing is for sure. Todd is the Grand Master of the Horse Racing chess board.Something tells me he knows exactly what he is doing ,not ony in this race .But everytime he runs a horse.That being said,good luck to you on Saturday with your JCGC favorite and on the day.
He Bafferted the race, so his three are going to battle each other at some point(s).
To simplify, I think Pletcher is playing a chess match with himself.
I see Vitoria going for CT early, but I think Palace will sit right off the leaders. I also see Alpha going early too, IF he runs with blinkers (which I believe he is). I look at it this way, Pletcher won't want his three to kill each other on the front end, but Vitoria is a bit of a wildcard anyway. Let Vitoria and Alpha potentially force the issue on the front end, and PM will be waiting just off them to pounce. If Alpha doesn't go with CT, then he still stands a pretty good chance of winning. Pletcher is holding a loaded hand and could win it no matter how the pace plays out.
Floridaf. I agree under normal circumstances Vitoria and Palace Malice are pace horses. But they are also trained by Todd Pletcher. Todd will not allow his horses to go out and kill each other.A stupid quirk of his i guess.Todd loves to win G1 races. There is no way he will serve up a cupcake to other trainers by having his 3 horses set up the race for them That is all i am saying.There is a difference to pace and speed horses.Ct is a legitimate Speed horse.The others are pace horses.Even Alpha,Kiaran knows that there is no way if he ever got involved with CT he would be around to talk about it at the wire.
If Alpha is running with blinkers again, Cross Traffic may very well have some company on the front end. Vitoria Olimpica looks to potentially be a pace factor, too. Vitoria is intriguing also for the fact that he is a Group 1 winner at this distance, albeit on turf. I find it really hard to pick against the Baron of Belmont, though. I think his running style will help him immensely.
Cross Traffic, Orb, Alpha and Ron the Greek!
The stakes are high ... it should be fun!

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Meet Laura Pugh












 

For as long as i can remember I have always loved horses and writing. The first race I ever watched was War Emblem's Preakness Stakes, but I didn't really start to get into racing until the next year where watched and cheered Empire Maker through the Derby, and yes, the Belmont.

I didn't begin writing until a few years later, when I created my own blog Horsin' Around. It didn't take long for me to realize that my niche was stirring the pot and creating heated debates, especially during the time of Big Brown vs Curlin and Rachel Alexandra vs Zenyatta. I was a Curlin and Rachel fan.

Now I am here under the name of Dead Heat Debates, and hoping to live up to that name. Have fun and let the opinions fly!