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HRN Original Blog:
Dead Heat Debates

The Fickle Always Look Foolish

Fans can be so fickle sometimes that it makes one want to shake his or her head. The hype of last year’s crop was Union Rags, the stunning Dixie Union colt who had taken two graded stakes before falling a head short of the unbeaten Hansen, in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Hansen too received a lot of hype coming into 2012, but after finishing a well beaten second in the Holy Bull, his first start since the Breeder’s Cup, many were quick to jump off of his bandwagon. Union Rags started the year off, validating the hype in the Fountain of Youth, but after a troubled third, many were quick to question his abilities. Hansen regained some lost luster when he rated beautifully in the Gotham, before romping by three lengths. After that race he made his final stop in last weekend's the Blue Grass Stakes.
 
In that race, fickleness struck again as the racing world watched Hansen fall just over a length short at the wire. The winner, a worthy one, was the talented Dullahan. After the Blue Grass it did not take long before the commentators noted that Hansen would most likely be out of his element, should he attempt the 10 furlongs of the Kentucky Derby. Their reasoning…he obviously could not handle the distance of nine furlongs, so how could one assume he can handle 10? My response…..Are you serious?
 
People, please look at the facts of the race. Hansen had already proven he could rate off the pace when he won the Gotham Stakes. He is also already in the Kentucky Derby field based on earnings, so it is not like he needed the Blue Grass Stakes to boost his bankroll. Hansen also had two prior starts, both in stakes this year, meaning that there was no need to push for the win. Dullahan, however only had one prior start, on the turf, in the Palm Beach, meaning a good, strong performace would be needed, so that he could get the necessary conditioning. So, based on these facts, one can easily gather that one set of connections was only looking for a good, solid performance, while the others wanted to have their horse primed and ready for a win.
 
Now, before anyone begins to scream distance limitations, take a look at Hansen’s performance. Down in the 4 hole, inside of all the speed Hansen risked being boxed in, if he were to take back. So instead, Ramon Dominguez sent him to the lead, where Gung Ho hounded him through fractions of 23 flat, 46 3/5th, and six furlongs in 1.11 and 1/5th. Another thing to note, Hansen’s mile split of 1.35 2/5th was nearly two seconds faster than any other mile split run on the main track. His final 1/8th of a mile was roughly 12.68 seconds. For the pace he set, that is a very respectable closing furlong, and doesn’t give the impression of fading in the least. Hansen also finished nearly four lengths in front of the third place finisher, who was only a length off of him at the 3/8th pole and two at the head of the stretch, meaning Hansen actually was able to lengthen his advantage.
 
The fact is Hansen did anything but disgrace himself. The fact is Hansen did anything but fade. The fact is Hansen ran a huge race and just simply got caught by a horse that relishes the track, received the perfect set up, and was primed to win because he needed the conditioning. The fact is that this race gave Hansen exactly what he needed to prime him for the race that really matters, the Kentucky Derby.
 

 

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Older Comments about The Fickle Always Look Foolish...

For those of you that like to play the exoctics, there is always at least (1) Horse that makes it in the exotics that has a "Blue Hen" mare within their tail pedigry lines (5 generations) 2009 and 2011 was the 4th place finisher all other years going back to 2002 were in the top three. I have not done any research past 2002.
Triple Crown Bet : $ 1000 show parley on Union rags KD gets me $ 5 x 500=$ 2500 Preakness bet gets me $ 5 x 1250= $ 6250 and Belmont bet gets me $ 5 x 3125= $ $15625 . You must maintain patience to win . Triple Crown races usually return at least $5 show bets despite the odds .
OK, I'll share my Triple Crown Betting secret. $ 1000 Show on Union Rags ( Derby shows usually pay $ 5 )
OK, I'll share my Triple Crown Betting secret. $ 1000 Show on Union Rags ( Derby shows usually pay $ 5 )
Reveron's trainer said earlier today bad foot keeps him out of Derby
My Derby/ Breeders Cup bets are simple . $ 1000 show hoping to pick up $ 5 x 500 or $ 2500 . In 11 days Churchill Downs gets my $ 1000 on Union Rags and I either get $ 2500 or I get very very drunk that night . Wish me Luck !
The addition of Trinniberg to the mix GREATLY reduces both Hansen's and Bodemeister's chances of winning the Derby. They will now be either contesting or closely tracking a hot pace. Closers will be closing if Trinniberg is in.
My pick is still Hansen. He's a special horse, and he'll prove it soon enough.
Holy Bull faded in the Derby
Hansen didnt fade in the Blue Grass. He can take the Derby. Remember the Kentucky Derby that Holy Bull ran in? The horse stayed in front the whole time. Hansen can do the same. Hansen will win! Go Hansen!
You know I'll smile and say, "Just fine." : ) Yes HD, my goal for this Derby is to pick one of those supers. I have my future wager on my fav, now to narrow down from the 20 horses after the post positions come out(I have a few tosses, but you know how it is, always something to re-think with it being 10f. for the first time), final workouts, a gazillion bits of info and opinion, but trying not to be swayed too much. Don't you love this time of year?
Doing ok Mary Z, and you? Looks like you have been busy with the Kentucky Derby and analysis!
There's HD. How are ya?
Fine, I'll drop it.
This is not a job resume cocoa2, and I don't seee fickle being used as an insult, but rather the definition of fickle in this instance.
Learn to provoke debate like the blog author, cocoa. Girl's got game. lol. Love the love for DLL, cocoa. Future DWC winner? That gallop out was gorgeous. You're right.
I consider "fickle" an insult, I know that someone would not advertise themselves on their resume as "fickle" if they are looking to get a job. I think there has been a good bit of bandwagon jumping, yes, but that is only to be expected when every race another powerful race is run. Daddy Long Legs CAN get 10f, we know that because in the UAE Derby he was galloped out WAY WAY WAY past the finish line. Can he get in on dirt, no, but he CAN get 10f. I can adjust my statement to accept your likelihood. The likelihood of Hansen getting 10f is less than Bodemeister and Take Charge Indy.
cocoa, there was not insult. Would you not agree that there has been a lot of bandwagon jumping this year? I'm stating an obvious fact, not uneducated insult. Hansen's pedgree has TC winners, Derby winners and Belmont winners. He is bred to excel at distance. That is a fact. We know he can rate well, that is a fact. The 3 weeks will most likely help take any issues of being too fresh away from a horse who obviously likes to run, meaning the likelyhood of him relaxing off the lead is very high. If he rates, and the likelyhood of that is high, then the likelyhood of him getting 10f is high. Right now, likelyhood is all we can go by, which is why when you say a horse that "CAN" get 10f, baffles me. How do you know they can when they have yet to do so. You can't know.
's tail stunt probably affected him some too. Why bet a horse who MIGHT be able to get 10f when there is a horse who CAN get 10f?
The fact is fans read your blog so it probably is a good idea to avoid insulting fans. Hansen came short in the Bluegrass, but Mr.Hansen

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Meet Laura Pugh












 

For as long as i can remember I have always loved horses and writing. The first race I ever watched was War Emblem's Preakness Stakes, but I didn't really start to get into racing until the next year where watched and cheered Empire Maker through the Derby, and yes, the Belmont.

I didn't begin writing until a few years later, when I created my own blog Horsin' Around. It didn't take long for me to realize that my niche was stirring the pot and creating heated debates, especially during the time of Big Brown vs Curlin and Rachel Alexandra vs Zenyatta. I was a Curlin and Rachel fan.

Now I am here under the name of Dead Heat Debates, and hoping to live up to that name. Have fun and let the opinions fly!