Ticker
  • Lady Shipman breezes home much the best in Belmont's License Fee.Posted 10 hours ago
  • Ben's Cat sprints home late to win his 10yo seasonal debut in thrilling fashion.Posted 12 hours ago
  • Minding shows her class, easily winning the 1000 Guineas.Posted 15 hours ago
  • Uncle Lino digs in to win the inaugural California Chrome Stakes.Posted 1 day ago
  • A Lot holds off favored Green Mask by a whisker to win the Elusive Quality.Posted 1 day ago
  • Galileo Gold, under Frankie Dettori, rolls in the 2000 Guineas.Posted 1 day ago
  • Olorda takes them all the way in the Bewitch Stakes on closing day at Keeneland.Posted 2 days ago
  • Nyquist will get in his final Kentucky Derby workout Friday afternoon at Keeneland.Posted 5 days ago
  • Time and Motion wins the Memories of Silver for Jimmy Toner.Posted 7 days ago
  • Finest City sets new track record in Great Lady M.Posted 8 days ago


HRN Original Blog:
Dead Heat Debates

 

Older Comments...

Anyone know where I can find dougs picks...???????????
  • Ross via Disqus · Just ask him on one of his posts here and more than likely you'll get a response. · 1 day ago
  • Blueyedhusky via Disqus · Yeah... I want to know what they are..... so I can toss them!!!! · 3 hours ago
Mineshaft has some pretty good 3 year olds this year. Weep No More normally works on the slower end, and she performs better off of a slower work. Plus the distance will help her since she won at 1 1/8 in the ashland, and seems poised to win again.
All of you are full of S#@t!!!!!! Nyquist is a monster of a horse!! And yea he is 7 for 7... I'm not saying he can't win at the distance but you need to watch out For Mr. Bafferts horse this Year also.......... MOR SPIRIT!!!!! He is the real threat!!!!! MARK MY WORDS!!!! THIS WILL BE THE ORDER OF FINSH: 1ST- MOR SPIRIT. 2ND- CREATOR. 3RD- BROADYS CAUSE. 4TH- NYQUIST............SEE YOU ALL BACK HERE AFTER I CASH MY SUPERFECTA LMAO!!!!!!! LATER, TERRY SAGRAVES @ TERSAG RACING & HADICAPPING ANTYLIST
Surprised they haven't tried her on dirt.
she looked pretty useful in her last race
I would like to see him in the Dirt mile for the breeders cup I think he would win
Nice to see Ben back in the winners circle after his outside run down the stretch. Wishing him safe trips this year and a retirement at Old Friends so I can visit on a trip to Kentucky.
Quote: "Two year olds run on stamina and inexperience." What????? Immature animals and HUMANS, use what is naturally physiological to them in youth: SPEED. ONLY with maturity comes the ability to apportion speed over a piece of ground. One sees the same thing in stamina sports like distance runners, cross country skiers, biathlon members etc etc. Speed is based upon a higher percentage of fast twitch muscles (BORN to the individual) and STAMINA is learned.
Kiaran McLaughlin announces that Frosted is back in the US and could be pointed to the G2 Suburban Handicap on July 9th as a return race for him.
  • Show All 3 Comments
  • Pebbles via Disqus · That is a bit of a heavy lift for him coming off of a 12-13 week spacing between races to have to step up in a 10 furlong race without a prep. I would think that they would need to get a prep in for him even if it were only an allowance race. It is also particularly daunting if I am correct that he, like Chrome, is best third race in a cycle and also if he is going to be taking on Effinex who has 2 stakes victories at 10 furlongs. · 4 days ago
  • Ruffianlover · I LOVE him in the met Mile · 7 hours ago
Scott You made me a fan. I too Handicap using blood lines. I also pay attention to Date of Birth of a three year old. Two year olds run on stamina and inexperience, (Change Leads etc) until they mature, I also have been a fan of the Fappiano line that in last year produced American Pharoah. This year there are 12 Fappiano lines in the 20 hoses listed for the Derby. Outlook has the same Fappiano line as American Pharoah (with Empire Maker). I have picked these (Fappiano) horses in the prep races, and I have had a good year so far. I look at stats but in this case (The Derby) all the horses but one has run one race at a 1 1/8. You cannot come up with a good analysis. As I wrote above there are two year olds bumping and unable to go two turns, which makes the Derby with 20 young hoses a challenge to handicap. Gun Runner has a Fappiano line in both his sire and dam side. I like Gun Runner, Shagaf and Danzing Candy. Go Fapp
I'm with you BeastBob.
Ben win in return at Laurel. The Cat's the Man.
I found video of Exaggerator's 4/30/16 (yesterday) work at Keelerman's site. Kent D. commented that the track was "loose", but thought the colt handled it all right. So, as an FYI to Jb, Jay, Mark, Tammy, astiar, et al, I'll link it. :) http://www.theturfboard.com/exaggerator-breezes-at-churchill-in-final-derby-workout/
Mohaymen Creator Destin Lani
Minding pretty much won the 1000 Guineas at her own leisure, and she may turn out to be even more impressive over the Oaks trip of 12f than she has been to date at a mile, IMO.
Bill Timeform figures and Beyer figures are on a different scale. Beyer figures usually run 10 to 12 points lower than Timeform figures--sometimes more. And although they are reasonably highly correlated, there are clearly significant differences between them. Nevertheless, translating Secretariat's 139 into a Timeform equivalent has Secretariat at a minimum of 2 to 4 points higher than Frankel. I have seen Frankel's very best race so many times I can't even count the number, and the same with Secretariat's Belmont Stakes. The fact is I have seen races as impressive as Frankel's best (Dr. Fager's World record mile was at least as good), but Secretariat's 2:24 by 31 lengths is what statisticians call an outlier. A point that's too far off on a scattergram of data. Nothing Frankel did is too far off any scattergram. Impressive, yes. Very impressive, yes. Extremely impressive, yes. Freakish, no. So I guess my answer is whatever number you give Frankel for his best race, it has to be lower than the number you give for Secretariat's Belmont. Timeform is saying that Brigadier Gerard's best race is as good as Secretariat's Belmont, and that Sea Bird's best race (and no one holds Sea Bird in higher regard than I do) is one point better. Look, we're all grown men here, and we know that's not true. We know that both Brigadier Gerard and Sea Bird each on his very best day would have been crushed by Secretariat the day he ran his Belmont. We both know that neither Sea Bird's Epsom Derby nor his Arc de Triomphe was even remotely in the same league as Secretariat's Belmont. So here's what I would do. Put Frankel at either 146 or 147, and put Secretariat at 150 or 151. And I would still think you're treating Frankel generously.
  • bill allan via Disqus · thanks, I was unable to access the ratings so don't know how they work?, what is the difference between MOW (934) and SEC (933) is it 1 lb, also what was Sea Biscuit · 1 day ago
  • bill allan via Disqus · what difference do you have with MOW and SEC, I have MOW by at least one pound · 11 hours ago
He's a great Horse🔶⚪️
I love this horse SO MUCH! What a stretch rally!
Just an heads-up, there is a thing in handicapping call horse for courses...And base on Destin performance he may just be that kind of horse. In addition, base on Destin previous performance, handicapping observation is saying he takes awhile to get back on form after winning and coming back from long lay off...just my view base on factual observation.....
After looking at the sheets for this years Derby. Based on my interpetation of the race,the likeliest winner will come from one of the following 3 horses. Moyhaman , Mor Spirit or Exaggerator . Not that they are super fast,but just based on comparative numbers. They ran fast as 2yos and followed it up with pairing numbers as 3 year olds.
  • amino998 · Mo Tom/Mor Spirit to Mohaymen/Mor Spirit/Exaggerator ... one of these things is just like the other. ...agree with you {and Clarence, in case you've missed it :)} that Nyquist is going down... it's a 2/7 shot · 3 days ago
  • Blueyedhusky via Disqus · What about Danzing Candy? He follows the same pattern. · 13 hours ago
Connect With Laura
Find 
Me On Facebook
Follow Me On Twitter
Google+

Meet Laura Pugh












 

For as long as i can remember I have always loved horses and writing. The first race I ever watched was War Emblem's Preakness Stakes, but I didn't really start to get into racing until the next year where watched and cheered Empire Maker through the Derby, and yes, the Belmont.

I didn't begin writing until a few years later, when I created my own blog Horsin' Around. It didn't take long for me to realize that my niche was stirring the pot and creating heated debates, especially during the time of Big Brown vs Curlin and Rachel Alexandra vs Zenyatta. I was a Curlin and Rachel fan.

Now I am here under the name of Dead Heat Debates, and hoping to live up to that name. Have fun and let the opinions fly! 

Best of the Blogs

Top Stories