Many will say that late November is much too early for Derby
Fever to kick in. They will tell you that we, most likely, have yet to see the
2013 Kentucky Derby
winner emerge. Those who make those assumptions, do not do so based on the facts. Sure, it might be too early to get overly excited, but the
claim that we have yet to see our Derby winner run could not be any farther from
the truth. With that in mind, I’ll be giving you some Derby facts and trends to
look out for.
The biggest myth, as I stated above, is that we have yet to
see our Derby winner run. Truth is, the last 10 Derby winners averaged,
approximately three starts their Juvenile year. Eight of those 10 had already
run in their first stakes, six of them were stakes winners, and two were
champions. Only two horses didn’t enter stakes competition, and ironically
enough, both had never run on dirt at that point in their career. Looking at
these 10 horses easily disproves the theory that the Derby winner has yet to
run. In fact, chances are that our Derby winner has already run in his first
Another unfounded fact is that a horse needs at least three
starts in his three-year-old season to win the Kentucky Derby. Look at past years and you will see that in
the last six Kentucky Derbies, all of the winners had no more than two starts
before they made their bid in the Run for the Roses. Many will tell you that it
takes a horse three races before they hit their peak form, after a layoff. The
last six winners of the Derby give that claim a very solid foundation to
Finally, while many will be looking for
the Derby winner to come out of Arkansas, I say turn your eyes to Florida.
Arkansas has done extremely well in the Derby, and the Triple Crown in general
recently, but it has not produced as many winners as it has runners that place
fourth through second. Florida on other hand seems consistently produce a
, Street Sense
, Big Brown
, Super Saver
, and Animal Kingdom
made at least one start in Florida before taking the Kentucky Derby.
If one needs help narrowing down some potential prospects,
then I would suggest looking to Brian Zipse’s Derby Sweet 16
. As of now we know
the Kentucky Jockey Club top three are all headed to Florida, and the top two
look especially promising. We also know that Shanghai Bobby
, being trained by Todd Pletcher will at least train in Florida.
is also pointing for start in Florida. All of these fit the first
two trends I talked about. Now all that is left is to see if they remain in Florida and which impresses us most.
Of course this is not full proof, but the facts behind it
are sound. I hope they help everyone in picking an early favorite or at least
narrowing their choices down before the big day. Let the Derby madness begin!