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Laura Pugh:
With three
weeks left until the big dance at Churchill, one could not have asked
for any more from the final two major preps that took place this
weekend. Dullahan was ultra-impressive beating the juvenile champ,
Hansen, and Bodemeister could not have been more visually impressive in
his scintillating Arkansas Derby win. However, while both were
impressive, Bodemeister gets my nod as the most impressive performance, out of the two.
Here you have a
horse that came into the Arkansas Derby with three previous races, two
of them being maiden events and only one was a stakes. That alone would
be a cause for concern, when considering he would be racing much more
experienced horses, including Secret Circle, Delta Jackpot winner
Sabercat, the ever so dependable Jake Mo, and stakes winning Isn’t He
Clever. Giving that type of experience away normally proves to be the
undoing of a young inexperienced horse, and yet he shrugged off the
pressure and won with ease.
Number wise, in
his two starts before the Arkansas Derby, Bodemeister ran two back to
back 101 BSF’s. One of those came against Creative Cause, who as we all
know, is considered to be one of the top Californian threats heading
into the Derby. After running two huge performances, including the
stretch long duel with Creative Cause, one might have their doubts about
Bodemeister being able to step up, yet again, and deliver another big
race. Again, he shrugged off the pressure, and not only did he run a
race equal to his last two, he exceeded them. Beyer awarded this horse a
108 figure for his effort, meaning he now has the highest figure of any
three year old heading into the Derby.
Dullahan is no
stranger to graded stakes competition, he was coming off an effort that
set him up well for a big performance this weekend, and already had an
impressive win over the track suggesting that if any horse was going to
be able to knock off Hansen, he would be the horse. One would also have
to admit, the race was set up perfectly for him. He had a good rail
running trip with solid fractions to run into. Bodemeister had never
raced at Oaklawn, so he did not have the benefit of knowing the track,
as Dullahan did.
As if having
the 11 hole on a track with such a short run to the first turn wasn’t
enough, Bodemeister bore out sharply at the break. Once Smith got him
straightened out, he had to use Bodemeister so that he could clear the
field and not get caught going wide into that first turn. The first
quarter went in 23 flat, and thanks to the fact Oaklawn carded so many
8.5f races, and even one other 9f race, we have plenty to compare
Bodemeister’s with. Bodemeister had fractions of 23 flat and a half in
46.55 seconds. Those times were right on par with the quickest opening
fractions at 8.5f. Then at the 6f mark everything became the Bode show.
His three quarters split was 1.11.39, the fastest split of any race over
a mile. His split was easily the fastest of any race over a mile and
was .01 of a second away from the fastest mile race on the card. His
final time was over a second faster than what Alternation, an older
horse, ran just one race before him. Bodemeister ran a huge race from
start to finish, running legit opening fractions, and still had enough
left to run a sub 12 final furlong. When looking at the trips the two
horses had, I do not even see a comparison. One had the race set up
perfectly in his favor, while the other had to do all the dirty work,
after speeding from the far outside, and still had enough in the tank to
not only win, but crush his opponents.
You
may use the fact that Dullahan ran the fastest Blue Grass since the
race was moved to Polytrack. That is a fact there is no getting around
that. However, I will point out that once again, Dullahan was set up for
that type of effort when Hansen set by far the fastest pace for any
race run at over a mile on the card. The final times of horses that
normally lay farther off the pace are dependent on the pace they have in
front of them. In this case, Dullahan again had the perfect set up when
Hansen was sent to the lead. Bodemeister, as I pointed out earlier, was
on the lead every step of the way, even when setting a very legitimate
pace. Another point, Bodemeister ran the second fastest edition of the
race in the last decade. Over the last two decades, his time was the
fourth fastest running.
With
all of this in mind, meaning wire to wire tour de force, his 105 BSF,
the trip he overcame, the fractions he set, and his quick final time, I
do not see how anyone could possibly say Dullahan had the more
impressive race. His time was faster, yes, but his Beyer was much lower
and he received the absolute perfect set up. Dullahan did what a good
horse does and that is to not drop the ball when a race sets up
perfectly. Bodemeister did not have anything given to him. There is no
comparison, Bodemeister, not Dullahan, had the most impressive
performance of the weekend.
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Brian Zipse:
Agreed. Of the
two big Saturday performances, it was certainly Bodemeister who
provided more flash and sizzle in romping home in the Arkansas Derby
than did Dullahan in rallying from far back to run by Hansen in the late
stages of the Blue Grass. However, what we are talking about, and what
everybody is talking about right now, is who is going to win the
Kentucky Derby in 18 days. To those ends, I’ll take Dullahan.
The one class
horse he beat in the Arkansas Derby was his stablemate, Secret Circle,
who is likely reaching his distance limitations. It tends to make the
performance look much better when the rest of the field is dropping
anchor. Dullahan meanwhile, had to run down a champion in Hansen, and he
did it rather easily. He also did it like a horse who will love the
extra furlong of the Kentucky Derby. Since none of these horses have
ever run ten furlongs before, it is easy to get too wrapped up in how
good they look at shorter distances. I want the horse that will be
strong in the final furlong … a horse like Dullahan.
I thought you
were anti-Beyer ratings? Anyway, I fully expected Bodemeister to run
well in Arkansas. He was coming into it perfectly, getting better with
each of his three previous starts, and running a distance, and in a pace
scenario that fit his talent and experience well. He was primed for a
big effort and he delivered. It was reminiscent of many Derby favorites
who fired big in their last prep. More often than not, these horses are
defeated in Louisville. I am convinced that Bodemeister has a big future
in front of him, but I also believe that the Derby will not be his day.
Whether it be experience, too much pace, or the distance, I fear the
cards are stacked against him. I’d rather look to a horse who is fresh,
and has plenty of room left for improvement to fire his best shot on the
first Saturday in May … a horse like Dullahan.
Clearly both
horses were happy with their respective racing surfaces on Saturday. I
knew before the Blue Grass that Dullahan was going to be one of my Derby
plays, so I was actually hoping that he would finish well without
winning, but he was much too good to fulfill my selfish hopes for higher
odds. I disagree that he had the great set-up in the Blue Grass. No one
ran with Hansen early, which made Dullahan’s task of running him down
all the tougher. He didn’t get the outside, clear trip that most closers
prefer, but rather he was covered be horses to his outside and had to
maneuver through the field. I consider it to have been the perfect prep
for what he will need to do in Louisville.
Against that
field, all Bodemeister needed to do was get to the lead in the run to
the turn, and he did it beautifully. From there he was never pressured.
No one was able to add any stress to his day. Keep in mind, that as
talented as Bodemeister obviously is, his lifetime record is only two of
four. In other words, when he has won, he has been in cruise control
and won in smashing fashion with his talent. When he has lost, he was
unable to look his vanquisher in the eye and come out on top. Now, as
such a lightly raced colt, I will not hold that too much against him,
but keep in mind just how much stress he will be under every step of the
way in the 20-horse Kentucky Derby field. It would seem to be a recipe
for failure. And you may argue that career record-wise, Bodemeister has
things heads-and-tails over Dullahan, but that does not bother me one
bit. Dullahan is a different kind of animal. He took a little time to
develop and he needed more distance to really shine, and now he is
getting good at the right time. This has been a description of a good
percentage of former Derby winners.
Time only
matters in prison, Laura. The fact that both horses ran well on
Saturday, with strong times, only matters in that they are proving to be
horses of ability. Good to know, but I could care less about the final
times as for what it means in 2 ½ weeks. You only have to look at the
final time of Animal Kingdom’s win in the Spiral last spring in
preparation for his Derby triumph to understand that. I will be much
more interested in the times on the board for the first three quarter
miles of this year’s Derby. With the field that is lining up this year,
it looks quite likely that the fractions will be strong, and as many
horse that are as likely to be near that strong pace as there are, I
think horses that can kick it in late will have the advantage in this
year’s Kentucky Derby.
Hey,
Bodemeister was my Star of the Week, so I’m with you on being impressed
with his Arkansas Derby, but like I said that, is not what it’s all
about in handicapping the Derby. I need a horse that will be thriving
late while most of rest are getting really tired. Recent history has
taught us that this is what wins more often than not, especially in this
age of lightly raced horses, 20-horse fields, and contested early
leads. Just look at recent winners like Giacomo, Street Sense, Mine that
Bird, and Animal Kingdom as proof. You can bet your Indian Charlie or
Bellamy Road type as the favorite, I’ll take Dullahan to roll right on
by at twice the odds.
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