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HRN Original Blog:
Dead Heat Debates

Beyer Baffles

There are times when everything falls into place, everything meshes together, or the equation makes complete sense. Then you have times where you stand their baffled and shaking your head, wondering what on earth is going on. After seeing the Gulfstream Beyer Speed Figures, after witnessing the endless adjustments and tinkering that took place, I am left shaking my head.  

 

Saturday we saw Mucho Macho Man and Awesome Feather wow in the Sunshine Millions Distaff and Classic. Awesome Feather drilled her competition early, with blistering early splits, and still had enough left to spurt away from any closing challengers. She earned an initial BSF of 101. Mucho Macho Man rated comfortably off of moderate fractions before cranking the tempo way, way up, and while making and holding a sustained move all the way to the wire. His time nearly equaled the track record and for that effort he was given an initial figure of 107.  

 

Sunday, Todd Pletcher fired three shots, each of them dead eyes. Algorighms swept by Hansen, the 2011 Juvenile Champion, earning a 98. That same day Forward Gal dominator, Broadway’s Alibi, and impressive allowance winner El Padrino, were given identical figures of 100.  

 

Over the last several days, the Beyer team has been tinkering away with the numbers and arrived at some questionable conclusions. Mucho Macho Man was downgraded from his 107 to a 100 while Awesome Feather also slipped to a 96. It was a strange development, one that I could not understand, but Beyer is sometimes known for making sudden, unorthodox changes in his numbers.Then, news came detailing that Algorithms figure had been boosted seven points. Hearing this I could not help but check to see if some of the other performances had also been moved up….they had not.  

 

This new twist literally had me shaking my head, wondering what on earth is Andrew Beyer thinking? Mucho Macho Man runs one of the fastest mile splits of the meet, a 22 and change internal quarter, and a final time that nearly ties the track record and only gets a 100? Broadway’s Alibi literally routes her competition, running brilliant splits, winning in dazzling fashion and only gets a 100? Broadway ran on the exact same track, the exact same day, running faster splits, than Algorithms and yet she remains the same while he is boosted five points higher than her? What sense does that make? 

 

Beyer’s team quotes the excuse of time controversy. One system, the Teleview Racing Patrol which posted the official time of 1.36.17 and the new Trackus system, used by Gulfstream which posted a final time of 1.35.09. So, basically what we are hearing from Team B is that Algorithms Beyer spike was based on nothing but speculation. If Beyer and his team cannot stick to the facts, and put out numbers based on the official stats, then maybe it is time for them to stop putting out numbers all together.

 

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Older Comments about Beyer Baffles...

i use byers a little bit, but i go by running line and who was in the race, distance and footing. look at the parents, the rating record at the distance, how many times they tried it. videos work the best though the information on the form can be wrong. i just use lots of methods. i think we all do.
Driveon, where did I ever say people take the top BSF and run with it? Some do, I have heard some people who think they are the be all end all. Personally, up until last year, I didn't have an huge problem with them. They made more sense. This year and last year the haven't. Again, the main thing here is put out the most accurate info you can, and he didn't.
Wager creation is a distinct and independent challenge to handicapping. Always has always will be..BET the overlay
"I challenge anyone who has posted on this thread to produce ANY excerpt from a Beyer book that recommends BLINDLY betting on the top fig horse as if it were "betting on a number" as has been suggested. Go ahead. Produce the evidence. " Crickets from the Beyer Bashers. Typical.
Four days ago I posted a similar question with no response. My original comment asked: "Can somebody explain how Mucho Macho Man runs 6 lengths faster than Awersome Feather on the same day at the same distance, yet their Beyer figures are only 4 points apart (100 vs. 96)? At the same time, Holladay Road runs 2.5 lengths faster than Willa B Awesome on the same day at the same distance, yet there is a 11 point difference (98 vs. 87)."
Early bias is denoited when the standard of the early/late balance is far more positive than the average over a season. The day Bellamy Road ran it was almot 40% higher than normal, THA'TS How
DeadHeat, very good point. It is a good idea to look at as many aspects as possible. Just because I don't put much stock into Beyers doesn't mean I haven't researched how they are derived and used, and arrived at my opinion/conclusion by doing so.
Driveon, just because I don't always agree does not mean do not study. I'm a conservative Repluican, that doesn't mean I ignore all things liberal and democrat. You keep updated, you study, that way you can have an inteligent conversation on all issues.
I don't get it - if you want your "sources to be accurate and reliable", why do you consult Beyers at all? You have made it clear in various preivious posts that you believe the figures are unreliable and subjective. So why use them as a "source".
Icy, I use all type of methods, however not everyone does when handicapping or betting. For some these figs are the be all end all, for me they aren't but for some yes they are. I have thought about making my own figs, but the lack of time that I want and need make it very hard to do so consistently.
@DeadHeat, Beyer has a whole team at his disposal with no accountability except to themselves and possibly DRF. Speed figures are so subjective if your a serious person you almost have to make your own or pay a good service to save you time.If you don't want to do either you can average different outlets figures. Accurrate information is essential as you point out. You obviously have perseverence and patience that's more than half the battle won. Good luck in your endeavor's, maybe someday we'll be reading your figures, or buying them. One never knows.
I have never understood the interest some people have with Beyers.
Driveon, Yes i have bet races, but rarely. I care because I love to handicap, even if not for money. I want my sources to be accurate and reliable, this is simply not. For those who ask, yes I am familiar with how Beyer makes his figures, I have said so numerous times, and it's not rocket science. Nick, the official time being posted is not the 1.35. That is used by Beyer and his team. Other major sites have the official clocking down as 1.36 flat. I also never said you had to trust my times, however, what I did was fairly close to most of the original clockings, which obviously means I'm not that far off. Seperate hand times will almost always show a little difference as was the case here. Icy, I don't have a question. As a handicapper I don't expect Beyers to be the be all end all, however if your going to call yourself a pro at something then make sure you are as accurate as possible and are putting out info that corresponds with what the other stats are, the official stats. Beyer did not do that.
I watched Un De Mae do that to Nevele Pride in the International, 69-70 can't remember which yr think it was Roosevelte. have a good day
@icy - it's a completely different style of racing, but it sure is fun to watch. The Australians have a similar style of racing.
@driveon, speaking of horses going wide don't you just love those european trotters going 3 wide the entire mile and never letting the pressure off, I know I do.
travel_vic: how did you know there was a "huge early bias"? Did you make SUBJECTIVE "trip notes" in that regard then apply it to your SUBJECTIVE analysis of the next race? You make my point for me with every post. Funny.
Nick, then what whould you suggest? I hand time races all the time, it does not take a rocket scientist to do so, and for you to even act like it does is completely rediculous. Watching does not give you all the answers. That is why there are charts, that is why there are splits. Algorithms was slowing down through that race, not getting faster. Hansen set him up. Did Algorithms look good, he did, but after reading the chart there is no way I'm ready to call him the fastest 3yr old in the America, which is basically what Beyer is telling us. Icy, I don't expect Beyer to do everything I expect him to use what is known and not base something off of debate. He has no clue if the 1.35 is actually right or not, but we do know that the 1.36 is what is out there and what is being used. This is not a favor, honestly, especially not today. Not when you can't count on a person and his team to put out a number using reliable stats.
@deadheat, I understand the point of timing races, and you can time every race if you want, but what makes your hand times more accurate than equibase or trakus? Better yet, why would I trust your times? Furthermore, unless it's a turf race I don't expect a horse to be running faster at the finish, especially when he's being hand ridden because he had the race won at the top of the stretch. A 98 beyer or a 105 beyer, I don't really care, it was only his 3rd start so it was very impressive, however he still needs to improve and do it around 2 turns.
????? Isn't ALL handicapping subjective??? Haven't you SUBJECTIVELY decided that BSF's are useless? You mean to tell me if a horse raced 5-wide on both turns of a 8 1/2 F race and lost to a horse who hugged the rail throughout and I had that in my "trip notes" that info wouldn't have value? The ENTIRE point of handicapping a SINGLE race is to indeed come up with the likely end result of today's PERFORMANCE, not a generaliztion regarding who the best PERFORMER might be. A classic example in today's world would be The Factor. His PERFORMANCE seems to be directly correlated to how much rival early speed is signed on against him. I bet race ws to turn a profit. I am ALWAYS concerned with how horses will perform today and why.

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Meet Laura Pugh












 

For as long as i can remember I have always loved horses and writing. The first race I ever watched was War Emblem's Preakness Stakes, but I didn't really start to get into racing until the next year where watched and cheered Empire Maker through the Derby, and yes, the Belmont.

I didn't begin writing until a few years later, when I created my own blog Horsin' Around. It didn't take long for me to realize that my niche was stirring the pot and creating heated debates, especially during the time of Big Brown vs Curlin and Rachel Alexandra vs Zenyatta. I was a Curlin and Rachel fan.

Now I am here under the name of Dead Heat Debates, and hoping to live up to that name. Have fun and let the opinions fly!